Kyle Hunter

*3 Star Play Under* The UNC Greensboro Spartans and Elon Phoenix both prefer to play at a very slow pace. There's no reason to expect anything other than a half court slow paced contest.

Elon is 285th in overall pace. UNC Greensboro is 331st in overall pace. Both of these teams have seen 5 of their 9 games against Division I opponents stay under this total. Now, they are up against another extremely slow paced opponent.

Elon's 7'4 Matthew Van Komen is a shot blocking machine and he has completely changed the way the Elon defense looks. This is no longer a weak defense that lets everyone get to the hoop like they did last season.

UNC Greensboro and Elon are both great at defending without fouling. Both teams have faced far better opposing offenses than defenses so far this season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UCLA Bruins know what they need to do here. They don't want to play North Carolina's fast pace style and get into a shootout. UCLA just won a 57-54 contest against Arizona last week. The Wildcats play very quick, but UCLA frustrated them with excellent defense and a slow tempo. They should have a plan to try to do the same thing here. 

North Carolina has played a bunch of high powered offenses this year. I think the Tar Heels defense is better than their overall numbers appear right now. North Carolina has played Auburn, Kansas, Alabama, and Florida. While UCLA is a good team, the Bruins are only decent on offense. They are 73rd in efficiency on offense and are outside the top 200 in shot selection.

Madison Square Garden has been consistently the best under venue in college hoops. The long term ATS record for the under in NCAA BB games played here has been top notch.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Vermont Catamounts offense is way down this year, but they are still excellent on defense. Vermont is well coached and they are very good at getting their style of play regardless of the opponent. Vermont is going to slow the game down. They are 344th in tempo out of 364 teams in the country. 

Vermont has seen six of their last seven games finish with 133 total points or fewer. Three of their last four games have finished with 125 points or fewer. 

Dartmouth is playing somewhat faster this year, but they have played a very weak group of defenses so far this season. 

Both of these teams are excellent on the defensive boards, and they are both good at defending without fouling.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The South Dakota Coyotes are one of the best over teams in the country. They are 354th in defensive efficiency. They have played a very easy slate of opposing offenses, and yet they have allowed opponents to score 92 points or more in 5 of their 12 games against Division I opponents. 

South Dakota plays at the 6th fastest tempo of anyone in the country. South Dakota is also great at taking care of the basketball. They are 89th in offensive efficiency. They get to the line at a very high rate, and South Dakota is up against a Santa Clara team that does foul a lot.

Santa Clara has wanted to play quick most of the years under Herb Sendek. They have played a track meet pace against Fresno State and Kennesaw State (both much worse at offense than South Dakota). I think Santa Clara will play quickly here too. Santa Clara gets very high quality shots (17th best in the country according to Shot Quality). They should get loads of second chance opportunities here too against a South Dakota team that is awful on the defensive boards.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Miss State* The Memphis Tigers are clearly a good team this year, but the advanced numbers suggest they aren't as good as they have looked. Memphis is 11th in luck factor at KenPom. The Tigers are ranked as the 8th luckiest team out of 364 at Shot Quality so far this year as well.

Memphis turns the ball over at a very high rate. They are 286th in turnover percentage on offense. Mississippi State is second on offense in turnover percentage. The Bulldogs have done a great job taking care of the basketball.

Mississippi State is elite on the offensive glass too, and Memphis struggles on the defensive boards. The Bulldogs are 14th in second chance conversion percentage and Memphis is 250th in second chance conversion percentage allowed. I think Miss State gets a lot of second and third shots in this game.

Chris Jans is a great in game coach. I like his ability to make adjustments and push the right buttons. 

Memphis trailed most of the game against Missouri at home. They lost at home to Arkansas State. I like Mississippi State to win this one.

Take Mississippi State.

*3 Star Play on Tennessee* The Ohio State Buckeyes have cluster injuries on the offensive line. Early in the season Ohio State's offensive line was very good, but without two of their best three offensive lineman, this is now a clear weakness. That's a problem against Tennessee, because the single strongest group on the Volunteers team is their defensive front. 

Tennessee is 1st in the nation in rushing play success rate allowed. I think it will be tough sledding for Henderson and Judkins in the rushing game. The Volunteers are second in the nation in defensive havoc from their front seven. Ohio State is definitely susceptible against this kind of defensive pressure. James Pearce Jr. is going to be in the backfield during this one. 

Ohio State's defense is solid, but they are 17th in the nation in rushing play success rate allowed. They are only 56th in defensive line yards. I think Dylan Sampson and Nico can get some yards on the ground here.

Will Howard has been fine, but his PFF grade under pressure is just 46 (90 when kept clean). I think he'll be under pressure a lot more than normal here.

Ohio State is the more balanced offense. The Buckeyes are getting a lot of respect from the oddsmakers here. They deserved to be favored, but 7.5 is too many. 

Take Tennessee.