COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEKLY DIGEST – 8/31
By Ron Marmalefsky (@ronacesports)
This inaugural edition for the 2022 College Football Season will discuss ten games that highlight week one action. All games listed are in rotational order.
West Virginia at Pittsburgh (Thursday): The “backyard brawl” as this rivalry is called was last played in 2011. This is an exciting week one matchup that should bring out the best in both teams.
What I’m Looking at: For West Virginia (WV), they allowed too many sacks last year (38). Major offensive line depth returns so I’m curious how they hold up vs. one of the very best pass rushing teams over the past five seasons. Add in a new offensive coordinator, and charting the offense will be quite useful. The RB situation looks a bit unclear to me at this time. Neal Brown always fields a tough defense, but his top five tacklers are gone. For Pitt, here comes transfer QB Kedon Slovis. I’ll be curious as to how that transition goes. As I noted in Pitt’s preseason preview, I’ve elevated their run game to 4.9 yards-per-carry (adjusted for sacks). I’ll be curious if that is achieved. One more thing: WV was -8 in turnover margin a year ago, with Pitt clocking in at +7 (both figures are prior to bowl games). If WV is to have a win chance in this game that has to change.
What I’m expecting: I can make a case for both teams. New QB J.T. Daniels could hit some splash plays as long as he gets time in the pocket. The strength of a WV defense is defending the run. I’m expecting Pitt’s RB’s to be good to very good in 2022, but this might be a challenge. The win and/or cover ultimately depends on QB Slovis and his ability to take care of the football. I expect some issues in 2022 in that regard. Pitt’s run prowess may wear down WV, but is it worth giving the now eight points?
Penn State at Purdue (Thursday): This is a sneaky important conference game right off the bat, with Penn St (PSU) hoping to return to top 20 status and Purdue looking to build on it’s impressive 2021 season. The winner gets a real confidence boost.
What I’m Looking at: Penn St needs to find its run game. I have them improved, but only with modest (4.0 per carry) projections. My watch is their freshman RB. Want a sneaky good transfer addition? Look at WR Tinsley. I’m usually not worried about their defense, but their coordinator left, and Manny Diaz is in. He’s run hot and cold in his career. In my preseason preview I noted that Purdue’s fortunes hinge more on how their opponents are progressing, and not on any one thing going on with this program. I will be charting the effect of a) losing do-it-all DE George Karlaftis, and b) changing defensive coordinators. The last guy made a difference in his one year here, but accepted another job.
What I’m expecting: PSU has a way of playing stout right out of the gate, especially defensively. Six key players are missing from that side of the ball (five drafted, plus their leading tackler), so will that change? I show this as a close game, one that could be decided by a blown coverage (PSU) or special teams play. If the latter is the case, PSU gets the edge. The line of 3.5 looks right to me.
Utah at Florida: Billy Napier is the new Florida coach and his first task is to face off against Utah, coached by one of the best in the business. Getting them at home makes this another highly interesting game, and the PAC “12” has a stake in the outcome.
What I’m Looking at: Utah will test Florida’s ability to defend the run. The Utah defense lost plenty of talent, but usually the replacements get coached up. Once elite on special teams, Utah has regressed a bit. They also lose a great return specialist. One major note: Utah has two NFL caliber TE’s on its roster. Florida fired Dan Mullen despite his 34-13 record. I really like Napier, but he’s not coming into a situation where a poor coach needed to be replaced. I’m looking at QB Richardson. His run ability might be vital to the outcome. Florida finished 2-6 in SEC play, but with a 211-212 point ratio, their 2-6 conference record might be deceiving. Fixing their -8 turnover margin would help get them back on track. Of note: One of their nose tackles weighs 415 pounds. I weigh 135 pounds! By my count, three of me makes one of him, with a few pounds to spare.
What I’m expecting: The line has risen to -3 and I can understand the move. Utah’s RB’s are creative and I expect them to have success. Having QB experience also works in their favor. This game might ultimately hinge on the performance of QB Richardson vs. a slightly weaker Utah defense (from a year ago). I do not give Florida a spike right out of the gate with the coaching change, so I would agree that the overall discipline of Utah might be the deciding factor.
Notre Dame at Ohio State: When was the last time Notre Dame (ND) was a 17.5 underdog? Often a top five-ten team under former coach Brian Kelly, is it due to regression or just due to how dominant Ohio St may be? This game might give us a glimpse of how good the Buckeyes aim to be in 2022.
What I’m Looking at: What a great test for a very experienced Irish defense. I’ll be looking to see if their fine pass rush can dictate play to some extent. That pass rush better matter, or else the Ohio St offense will be too powerful. The Buckeye offense is one of the best in the NCAA. My watch is clearly defensively. Recruiting is not the issue, so if new (and excellent) defensive coordinator Jim Knowles makes the right adjustments early on this team may be scary good. That’s all I’m watching.
What I’m expecting: Ohio St to score plenty of points. This is a mismatch if ND can’t sack QB Stroud a few times. This isn’t a game I want to have any action in, primarily because I want to learn more about the Ohio St defense.
North Carolina at Appalachian State: Many people downgraded N Car after last week’s game, but now that it’s over, the Tar Heel’s may benefit from seeing the players (and new coaches) in action. App St is considered the favorite in the Sun Belt, a conference that is getting better and better. The teams are neighbors, making for a very interesting and intense atmosphere.
What I’m Looking at: There wasn’t really anything to learn from the win last week vs. depleted Florida A&M. I felt N Car would find some RB’s and felt their point defense would still be vulnerable. These opinions have not changed, and the same results might be in play this week. I like the run game of App St more than their pass game. The OL should be solid. This is their 5th offensive coordinator in as many years. I’ll chart that, as well as any defensive regression (bit down from 2021?).
What I’m expecting: Perhaps a close, high scoring game decided by the kickers? Both kickers are new. With that in mind, much of my week zero and week one analysis takes place in July and early August. My preliminary Power Numbers did not support N Car at -3.5. The line has dropped to 1.5 so far (as of this writing, Tuesday).
North Carolina State at East Carolina: I put this game on the list due to the high expectations for NC St, a team loaded with returning talent. In recent years, teams such as Tennessee, Iowa St, and Indiana have failed under the microscope. East Carolina (EC) is an ascending team, so let’s see what the Wolfpack can deliver right out of the gate.
What I’m Looking at: With no coaching changes, NC St shouldn’t have much I need to check. I have notes on my team sheet that cover navigating through what I feel is a tricky schedule, but that has nothing to do with game #1. NC St has to break in two new RB’s. This is the best defense I’ve seen them have in quite some time. This will be a nice test vs. an experienced QB and offense. EC has its defensive line intact from a year ago. Typical for them, the run defense allowed 5.0 per carry in 2021, as usual corrected for sacks using my formula. When does that improve? They also need to prove they can win home games like this, which they did vs. the Wolfpack in 2016. I’ll be looking at their OL, which allowed a too high 37 sacks a year ago, and potential slippage in the secondary.
What I’m expecting: The line (+11.5) is accurate according to my Power Numbers. I expect sufficient run-pass balance from the Wolfpack, as I can not trust EC’s run defense, even with new RB’s on tap. EC’s efficient QB Holton Ahlers will have a solid completion %, but with new WR’s on board, does that translate into points? The takeaway here for readers is this: If EC fails in this spot, do not overreact. If NC St shows unusual and unforeseen soft spots, that might be a slight cause for future concern.
Boise State at Oregon State: I was concerned about Boise’s lack of finishing rate in 2021, with their 7-5 record their worst since 1998! As a contrast, Oregon State (THE OSU) was thrilled to finish with seven wins, although they also had some lapses (Colorado and then Utah State in the bowl game). This is an interesting matchup.
What I’m Looking at: Andy Avalos has to coach better in year #2. This is a veteran team that has to expect nothing less than a Mountain West title appearance. My watch areas are fixing the run offense, replacing a top tier WR, and avoiding special team play disaster after losing a solid coordinator as well as a strong punt return specialist. For OSU, we keep hearing that the defense is getting better, but the results are mediocre at best. The former defensive coordinator was replaced midseason. QB play is decent, but not spectacular. I’ll look at kicking, but I don’t expect to see anything but further erratic performance.
What I’m expecting: These teams know each other well, so anything is possible. The line of -3 is accurate. This is the ultimate 50-50 game for me. Boise is the more experienced team, but I want to see more from the 2nd year coaching staff.
Oregon at Georgia: Dan Lanning oversaw one of the best defenses we’ve ever seen in the modern era. He leaves Georgia to take the reins at Oregon. Georgia is reloading, not rebuilding, but 15 guys were drafted by the NFL. The table has been set.
What I’m Looking at: Oregon took some transfer portal hits at RB, which may be concerning facing this type of defense. That puts pressure on transfer QB Bo Nix, who has SEC experience (Auburn) and escape ability, but has been erratic as a passer. The OL is full of seniors. That’s an interesting watch for me, because if they hold their own here, it bodes well when they play softer defenses. I’m also worried about Oregon’s secondary. Blowouts likely enabled Georgia to play many backups a year ago, so even with so many talented players gone at least the replacements have game experience. I’d love to see a more innovative offense but I have fewer concerns about personnel on this side of the ball. It should be fun watching TE Bowers roam free vs. the Oregon secondary. He’s got legit 1st or 2nd round NFL talent. Will any defensive area be a cause for concern?
What I’m expecting: At 1st glance, the -17 point spread seemed high. It’s not true home field, but after making some adjustments, the overall Power Numbers are close to being accurate. I’m not a big supporter of Nix, but he is back with his original offensive coordinator, and “should” have some moments of success vs. a team missing numerous day one and day two NFL talent. But Georgia should win, and given the next few games on the schedule, build up quite a resume early in 2022.
Cincinnati at Arkansas: Cincy picked the right time to reach the NCAA pinnacle/playoffs, and was rewarded with a promotion to the Big 12. Despite repeated brutal schedules, Arkansas is also on the right track. This is a sneaky good matchup to cover.
What I’m Looking at: For Cincy. nine players were drafted, including some incredibly important players at QB, RB, WR, DL, and especially in the secondary. Alabama and Georgia easily recover from this. For me, I’m charting how a program such as this one can persevere. Only in today’s NCAA can a QB enroll at Cincy, transfer to Eastern Michigan to gain valuable playing time, and then return to Cincy to take the vacant QB job. Good for Ben Bryant (he has talent) and Cincy, but not a good look for the NCAA in general. I like this offensive line, which could make things interesting. I of course will be charting defensive back performance. I’m a big K.J. Jefferson fan and the Arkansas QB will still be facing a solid defense in this spot. They lose WR Burks but I think Jefferson is the type of QB that can make things happen. Arkansas fired their defensive line coach, mostly due to a perceived lack of recruiting prowess. I’ll chart his replacement. Barry Odom is the new defensive coordinator. Despite a good 2021 I rate him just barely above average. With four of their top five tacklers gone, that’s a watch area for me.
What I’m expecting: I like Luke Fickell, but game one at an SEC team seems daunting. I expect some success on both offense and defense, but not enough to win the game. The secondary concern is real, and not noted is their atrocious placekicking results the past two seasons. I think Arkansas has the capacity to win by double digits, with QB Bryant the X factor.
Florida State at LSU (Sunday): FSU and Nebraska have had similar paths of late with both programs underachieving. Nebraska started 2022 with a whimper. FSU had one prep game and now faces LSU, a team that hopes to quickly return to prominence after hiring Brian Kelly. Week one ends with a highly interesting affair.
What I’m Looking at: The FSU run game has options, but I would like to see continued progression in the pass game. Two DE’s are off to the NFL, but FSU might remain decent along the DL, at least as it relates to the run game. That’s an area I will continue to check. Of note: FSU lost to Notre Dame and Brian Kelly a year ago. LSU is almost a complete unknown to me. That’s fine, because as a handicapper/writer, I never expect to know in advance the fortunes of every team. I’ll learn just like everyone else. Offensively, the QB is a multi-year starter from ASU, the RB comes from Penn State, and two or three new faces grace the OL. Will yards translate into points? Will red zone snaps turn into TD’s or field goals? I do like the WR’s on this team. That’s what I’m watching. Like with the offense, the defense brings in potentially six new transfer starters. The depth chart shows four of the transfers starting in the five-man secondary. That’s obviously a must watch area.
What I’m expecting: The odds are mostly LSU -3, although there were plenty of +3.5 options out there not that long ago. Kelly is a coaching upgrade at LSU. Why did he leave Notre Dame? The answer is in plain view. With LSU, he can accept 10-12 impact players from the transfer portal and plug many of them in as starters. He couldn’t do that at Notre Dame. The needle is likely pointing up for LSU, but I’m not projecting a win here. There are too many moving parts, and FSU could force the Tigers to become one-dimensional, stopping the run attack. It’s a do or die year for the FSU coaching staff, and they have the experience and team continuity to make this a 2-0 start.
Visit me on twitter @ronacesports where I provide thoughts about all things football, and offer up additional handicapping analysis in podcast form as well.
