COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEKLY DIGEST – 9/21
By Ron Marmalefsky (@ronacesports)
In this week’s weekly digest, I profile several teams and put them into two categories. Category one is entitled, STOCK UP. Here I discuss a few teams who appear on an upward trajectory. Category two is entitled STOCK DOWN. The teams I discuss in this section are either underperforming, or are ripe for regression later this season.
NOTE: For the most part, this report won’t include the obvious stock up candidates like Kansas or Duke, or the obvious stock down candidates like Colorado and Nebraska. I mostly want to put teams here that might be surprising to some people.
STOCK UP:
- Illinois: The Illini look like a different team in 2022, mostly due to improved defensive numbers. Yes, they lost to Indiana (see below), but they outperformed Indiana on the stat sheet and would win that game if replayed approximately 65% of the time. Behind RB Brown (75-496), the run game is thriving. QB DeVito is a modest upgrade, mainly due to his newfound accuracy (67%). But the defense has been outstanding. The corrected for sacks run defense is allowing under 100 yards per game. The pass defense is at 43.4%. They have Big Ten home games vs. Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan State and Purdue, and winnable road games at Nebraska and Northwestern. An overall record of 7-5 is well within reach. One note: Kicking must improve (4-8).
- Kentucky: Most people expected Kentucky to win at least seven games but winning all three games (including one at Florida) by double digits has been impressive, especially considering their best RB hasn’t played a down (suspended) and their presumed #2 RB was hurt week one and is out for the year. All defensive areas are trending up, and their QB, while turnover-prone, is still capable of winning games on his own. The 3.3 per carry run O should improve come conference time with their lead RB back from suspension.
- Maryland: I like what their doing, especially with a coach that is actually on my 2022 bottom five coaches list (4th time for him on the list). They have incredible offensive balance, and Tua’s brother is deadly accurate thus far, cutting down his turnovers as well. The schedule heats up right now, and so my only concern is will coaching cost them a win or two. I love the talent level on this team and they are capable of reaching 8-4 if all goes well.
- Mississippi: Lane Kiffin is the acknowledged king of the transfer portal, but even he thought it would take some time to develop chemistry among the multitude of new starters on the team. The schedule has been soft, so we do need to be careful reading too much into things, but the stat sheet is better than expected in all areas except the pass D%. Turnovers are a worry down the road, but if the run game stays close to this level, things could get very interesting.
- Rutgers: Why Rutgers? They just beat Temple 16-14 when favored by eighteen, so that seems like underachieving, but Greg Schiano knows defense and because of that they belong on the stock up list. The offense might hold them back, but as underdogs in the right situation they will be a threat to deliver a close game, if not an outright upset. With ANY QB improvement they should outperform their win totals and challenge for a legit bowl berth in 2022.
STOCK DOWN:
- Colorado State: Colorado State axed their previous coach faster than expected and thought they made an astute hire with Jay Norvell making the “sideways” transition from Nevada. He brought eleven Nevada transfers with him, and I believe twenty or so transfers in total, plus some coaches. Losing to Michigan was expected, but getting thrashed by MTSU and then losing 38-7 to a Washington State team off an emotional win (Wisconsin) showed that early expectations might have been too high for the Rams. The offense has scored 33 points and the pass D has been torched (over 70%). This CAN get corrected, as after they face Sacramento State, the Rams have their bye week, followed by three easy games. Go 4-3 and all is forgotten, but even one stumble could seal a losing record.
- Florida: Don’t be fooled by their 2-1 record. QB Richardson was outstanding vs. a very good Utah team, as without him they were likely going to lose by double digits. The home crowd was a bonus. Richardson noticeably regressed the following week, and was even worse when Florida survived vs. USF, who outplayed the Gators as a 24-point underdog. I have no doubt that Richardson could win a game or two all by himself down the road, but the tough SEC schedule might expose him some more. To date he has hit just 53%, and has NOT thrown a touchdown pass (four interceptions). They’ve played three teams who projected to run about 4.8 per carry against the Gators. To date, Florida has allowed 5.45 per carry, another concern. Going 2-0 in close games may serve them well, but overall, this team has work to do.
- Indiana: Indiana is 3-0 but clearly belongs in this category. They are two plays away from 1-2, and their one deserved win was vs. lowly Idaho. They have upgraded their QB play this year, but not to any special kind of level. They ran (corrected #’s using my formula) just 26-35 vs. Illinois, and just 35-123 vs. a weaker WKY run defense. While talent has clearly been upgraded at WR and even RB, I see four or five teams that have clear edges on Indiana left on the schedule. That 3-0 record could give handicappers an edge in fading them until there is a market correction.
- Louisville: Every season under the current Head Coach is exactly the same. That’s good for the always dynamic run attack, but bad when the defense continues to underperform. This year was “supposed” to be different, with a massive amount of returning starters, coupled with a highly experienced QB. Admittingly, the slate of opponents (Syracuse, UCF, Florida State) has been decent, but my Power Number for Louisville has fallen 3.5 points since the start of 2022. The run defense has allowed in excess of 200 yards in every game, and once again the pass D% exceeds 60%. QB Cunningham is a dual threat but his accuracy is lower than usual to this point. What was supposed to be a 7-5 season or more may now be just a 6-6 ceiling.
After this weekend, most NCAA teams will have played four games. My plan for next week’s column is to take a look at how some of the teams that have new coaches are performing thus far, and offer up my observations.
Visit me on twitter @ronacesports where I provide thoughts about all things football, and offer up additional handicapping analysis in podcast form as well.
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