New Coach Report Card
By Ron Marmalefsky (@ronacesports)
This week’s digest takes an early look at the ten new coaches for 2022. The format will be simple. What were my expectations? What has transpired thus far? What are my thoughts moving forward. Keep in mind that a sample size of three games is not ideal, but for handicapping purposes, it’s never too early to look at tendencies.
SPECIAL NOTE: Things can change, with the perfect example being Philly in 2021. Their new coaching staff was overmatched in early action, running the ball just 22 times per game. After their (early) bye, things did change. The staff had a chance to reassess, something new coaches need badly because the week-to-week pacing can be overwhelming. After their bye, Philly averaged about 39 rush attempts per game, tailoring the offense to fit QB Hurts. My advice: Watch what happens immediately after the bye week for each new staff. Tendencies might change, and we’ll want to be ahead of the curve if that happens.
Mike McDaniel (Miami):
August Expectations: By August I was bullish on McDaniel, at least offensively. He said the right things, and I felt the offense had been remade into something that could win games. With a daunting early schedule, I thought the process might take a bit of time to develop, but I liked the future for the franchise.
Impressions Thus Far: He’s exceeded expectations, not just how he’s handled game situations (and halftime commentary as well), but how his vision for the roster rebuild has made this offense so scary. As I expected, there’s been some defensive regression without Flores in the building, but that could improve once the schedule of opponents ramps down.
Expectations Moving Forward: Miami looks the part of a playoff team, but I still do not have them winning the Division, although rival Buffalo has been hit with an abnormal rash of injuries. I have made no changes to how I value them right now.
Lovie Smith (Houston):
August Expectations: Very bearish! Lovie is old school, and the game has changed. He dropped down to coach at Illinois, inheriting a decent pass defense. He somehow made it worse. I did note (in my video assessment of this team) that the August work put in by this team was better than most, and they clearly displayed the ability to put pressure on opposing QB’s.
Impressions Thus Far: I’m thrilled with my assessment of this team. They have ten defensive sacks, something I uncovered faster than most. They are 2-0-1 vs. the spread, and “should” be 3-0, record-wise. But the elephant in the room is Lovie Smith. His decision-making cost them a win vs. Indy after leading and dominating 20-3. They failed to take advantage of a down Denver team in the 1st half, and ended up losing a game that they played well enough to win. Last week they let a game slip away vs. Chicago. Better coaching would have helped. Lovie is a liability.
Expectations Moving Forward: They will catch some breaks with opposing teams being in tough situations at least five more times during the season, likely including this week vs. the LA Chargers. I think 5-12 is likely the ceiling, and it could have been higher. As I’m all in on UNDER five season wins, I’m counting on Lovie to lose a game or two that they should win. I think they will continue to be competitive vs. the spread. Last week I took Houston in-game, +9.5 when they were down 10-0 to Chicago. The strategy I would use moving forward might be just this: Fade Houston in-game with a big lead, and back them vs. mediocre teams when they get down early.
Doug Pederson (Jacksonville):
August Expectations: Like everyone else, I figured the Jags would be better no matter what, as Urban Meyer was out of the building and the locks on the doors were all changed.
Impressions Thus Far: As I’ve said numerous times, I rely solely on 2022 data once four games have been played. After the Jags shut down Indy 24-0, I made the unusual decision to throw out all of their 2021 data after game #2, pretending that 2021 never existed for these Jags. Completely underpriced at the LA Chargers, the Jags are 2-1 and now in the Divisional mix.
Expectations Moving Forward: Jacksonville went on a spending spree prior to 2022, and the newcomers upgraded the roster. Lawrence is no longer in a toxic environment and it shows, as he’s no longer pressing. I don’t expect their +7 turnover ratio to continue, so there will be some regression, but that ratio was -20 a year ago and that usually means spread advantages the following season. I’ll revisit them in November when the schedule gets much tougher, but for now they are a team to watch.
Nathaniel Hackett (Denver):
August Expectations: Honestly, I was torn on how to assess Hackett and this team in August. Vic Fangio was overmatched as a Head Coach and it showed way too many times. I was neutral on Hackett, and neutral on Russell Wilson, not knowing if Seattle’s OL was the problem for all the sacks he took, or was part of the blame on Wilson himself.
Impressions Thus Far: No coach has been as overmatched as has Hackett. The last 3:14 of the Seattle game (and NOT just the last 40+ seconds) was a case study on how not to coach. They were lethargic the next Sunday hosting Houston, and got a break when the Texan’s blew 1st half opportunities. I didn’t see the game vs. SF, but ugly probably is not a strong enough word to describe that game. Denver is very lucky to be 2-1, and Wilson has to play better.
Expectations Moving Forward: In a shock, I think there may be value on Denver AFTER their mini and full bye weeks. The mini-bye is after game #5. The full bye is after game #8. This is IDEAL for new coaching staffs, and Hackett needs both of these bye weeks to get up to speed. I’d like to see more out of Wilson, but I’m cautiously optimistic here, something I did not expect.
Josh McDaniels (Las Vegas):
August Expectations: As my readers and listeners know, I was quite bearish in this team, but it was NOT because of McDaniels. Like with the coaches in New Orleans and Tampa (see below), I thought he more than deserved this 2nd chance at the lead job. Instead, regression was due with Vegas being 10-7 last year but with a -65 point ratio, helped greatly by an unsustainable 4-0 mark in overtime games. The schedule ramped up, and the game one situation was a massive play against spot. Finally, the OL was graded as bottom tier, and the revolving door in the secondary was troublesome.
Impressions Thus Far: Yes, they are 0-3, but I think they have actually exceeded my expectations. They should have won (of course) hosting Arizona, and with any kind of a pass rush (just two sacks thus far) could be sitting at 2-1. I’m not down on McDaniels, but this stuff can wear on a new coaching staff. Years of bad drafting certainly hasn’t helped.
Expectations Moving Forward: Every once in a while, I think you’ll see Vegas exercise their frustration ON the field, winning a game 40-14. It could even be this week, hosting Denver. I am all in at under nine wins, but I still see a path to 9-8, providing that they get that 1st win under their belt soon. I’m not in full fade mode vs. Vegas, but I need to see an improved pass rush. Keep in mind that Vegas is 0-3, but has been outscored by only seven points in regulation play, a complete flip from 2021.
Brian DaBoll (NYG):
August Expectations: For the short term, I remained more bearish on the NYG. QB play has become so important in the NFL over the past decade thanks to rule changes favoring offenses, and Daniel Jones is at the bottom of where NFL QB play needs to be. For the long term however, I’m bullish on the NYG, as the new GM knows what it takes to build a roster, and DaBoll is a massive upgrade over whatever that last coaching staff was.
Impressions Thus Far: Favorable, but as expected for me. The NYG won their opener at Tennessee thanks to both a gutsy move by DaBoll, along with a fire drill ending by the Titans that predictably failed. The Carolina game was another tossup that went in their favor, but the MNF loss hosting Dallas was a reminder that even with improved coaching, the roster needs work.
Expectations Moving Forward: I’m neutral on the NYG for the rest of 2022, but remain optimistic that they have the right coach and GM in place. With RB Barkley returning to form, the next step(s) would seem to be using their draft capital to upgrade at QB and in the secondary. The NYG should be competitive in 2022 with one of the easier schedules, but the ceiling will be much higher in 2023.
Matt Eberflus (Chicago):
August Expectations: Very similar to the NYG, Chicago’s last GM and Head Coach put the team in an awful spot. Past drafts were abysmal, and coaching decisions were not much better. I began 2022 open-minded about Eberflus, but very bearish about the team. In Indy, Eberflus played too passive of a defense. Would that carry over to this team? I put no lofty expectations on 2022, as the offensive roster is incomplete and the defense lost a few starters.
Impressions Thus Far: Chicago is 2-1, but that’s a fluke. Eberflus is fine, and once again, I have no intention of rushing to judgment in his rookie season with a very raw QB and plenty of roster issues. Chicago was my favorite play week one, with SF and Trey Lance not ready out of the gate. After their usual loss at Green Bay, the Bears won a 50-50 game vs. Houston. To date, QB Fields is 23-45, for 297 yards. That’s less than one game’s work for half of the NFL, and shows how little trust the staff has in him thus far.
Expectations Moving Forward: The Bears opened as high as 7 or 7.5 on their win total, but a majority of my action is under 6.5 wins. The 2-1 start is less than ideal, but the stat sheet tells me 7-10 is still not a given. The mini-bye is after week six, but the full week off is not until after December 4th. I’m still more bearish than bullish on this team.
Kevin O’Connell (Minnesota):
August Expectations: This is another new coaching staff where I came into 2022 feeling neutral. Earlier in the Spring/Summer I was down on them, feeling that losing Mike Zimmer would be a problem. By the end of August, I took that neutral stance, as football seemed “fun” again for the Vikings. Of course, fun doesn’t mean wins were coming, so I felt it was imperative that they start out with a win hosting Divisional rival Green Bay. My preview of this team found me thinking there would be ten or more games that were tossups. In the end, I just gave up and decided to let the first month of the season play itself out.
Impressions Thus Far: Slightly encouraged? They were one Detroit decision away from falling to 1-2, and just 1-1 as a Divisional host, so the jury is still out on how good the team really is. I projected them as a team that would have plenty of defensive sacks, but also a team with issues defending the pass. That’s proven to be true so far. Looking back, I can’t find fault with how the coaching staff has handled the 1st three weeks.
Expectations Moving Forward: Perhaps I trust Minny more than Jamais Winston (Tampa) to handle a trip overseas. If so, 4-1 is in play prior to their trip to Miami, which in the NFC would make the Vikings a bonified playoff contender. I’m worried about the health of RB Cook. Regardless of the fact that backup RB Mattison is decent, the team loses the splash play (run and catch) talent that Cook possesses. Instead of viewing Minny as a 40-60 playoff team, I now have flipped to 60-40 in their favor.
Dennis Allen (New Orleans):
August Expectations: The loss of Sean Payton was the deciding factor for me in my decision to stay away from New Orleans win totals. With what I thought would be regression from Tampa, I wanted to boost this team up, but I was scared of how QB Winston would look without the creative mind of Payton scheming the offense. At the time of the preview, I also didn’t know about Kamara’s legal situation. What I did know is that Dennis Allen had far exceeded my expectations from a defensive standpoint, and given that his last job was with Oakland (Raiders), this was a more than acceptable 2nd opportunity for him.
Impressions Thus Far: Thus far, my biggest worry regarding Dennis Allen has unfortunately for Saint’s fans, come true. His more conservative nature in offensive game planning has held back a team that is night and day better at WR (than in 2021). They were lucky to win at Atlanta in the opener, but maybe unlucky to lose to Tampa (see Tampa notes). The loss at Carolina put them at 1-2 overall. Dennis Allen had the luxury of being on the staff for quite some time, so with this very experienced team, 1-2 is just plain unacceptable. I don’t want to be too hard on Allen, but thus far, the Saints have been mediocre.
Expectations Moving Forward: Based on my seasonal projections, New Orleans does not look like a playoff team. They are -6 in turnover margin, and -7 in sack differential. The run defense has uncharacteristically been below par, but that could change as it’s only a three-game sample size. Winston is not 100% healthy, and back to his own turnover habits, which were not present with Payton in charge. Dennis Allen deserves better, but they remain money busters when favored again in 2022.
Todd Bowles (Tampa Bay):
August Expectations: It’s a broken record, but my pessimism of Tampa had nothing to do with the hiring of Todd Bowles. This was all about the loss of three OL starters, the health of WR Godwin, the loss of the highly durable DT Suh, and most importantly, the “retirement” of Rob Gronkowski, the guy who Tom Brady relies on in the red zone and relies on to make the punishing block on 3rd and short. Add in Tom Brady’s “disappearance”, and it seemed Tampa was due for regression. I did note that I was never a big fan of Bruce Arians (some strengths, some weaknesses), so the coaching change did NOT faze me.
Impressions Thus Far: Favorable for Todd Bowles. Heading toward 1-1 (and then 1-2), Tampa was bailed out in New Orleans by a +4 turnover ratio, coupled with the ejection of elite DB Marcus Lattimore, who has Brady’s number. The Saints regressed after that and Tampa won that critical early game. I think the red zone issues are real without Gronk, but RB Fournette and company can change that equation vs. teams with softer run defenses. I like their pass rush aggressiveness thus far (11 sacks). Any team with Tom Brady is dangerous, and Todd Bowles is the right coach to handle the egos in this locker room.
Expectations Moving Forward: Because of concerns now with New Orleans, Tampa looks like they can win the Division in 2022, and perhaps exceed their 11.5 season win total. I’m not going to be necessarily bullish in backing them repeatedly during the season, but instead see them as a team who has the right QB to get them a win or two at the end of a game that perhaps they really shouldn’t be winning. I’ll keep my eye on OL pass protection and red zone efficiency moving forward.
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