By Ron Marmalefsky (@ronacesports)
All 32 NFL teams have played four games. NFL coaches often break down their games into quartiles, and I do the same. Once a team has played four games I no longer look back on ‘21 data. The following represents a look at all NFC teams. This review will include a look back at some key statistics and player performances as well as a brief look ahead.
SPECIAL NOTE: With NFL teams now playing 17 games, we no longer have four true quartiles. I can tell you with certainly however, that most NFL coaches still use games 1-4 as quartile #1. The next quartile however, will likely be different for each team, and very likely contingent on the placement of their bye week, or mini-bye week. For that reason, teams with a week seven to week ten bye (or mini-bye) will likely define quartile #2 by that break in their schedule. Keep that in mind.
ARIZONA: Arizona stole a win vs. Vegas, but earned their win last week at Carolina to get to 2-2. The offense isn’t as bad as some think, and they are two games away from getting WR Hopkins back from suspension. There’s talent defensively, but can the coaching staff do a better job in crunch time? The pass rush is doormat for now. The Next Quartile: With three games before their mini-bye, there is not a clean quartile to work with. These three games are hosting Philly, at Seattle, and with Hopkins back, hosting New Orleans on a short week Thursday Night. The obvious goal is 2-1 and it can be achieved, as the Cardinals have won four of their last six at Seattle, and that was with Russell Wilson in mostly peak form. Don’t rule Arizona out of the playoff picture just yet, but to get there we’ll need to see more of a pass rush, and better play in the desert.
ATLANTA: Atlanta is night and day better this year, even without Matt Ryan and with a new group of WR’s. Every win will be contested, as the pass rush is still an issue, and the defensive numbers are bottom tier. All games have been decided by four points or fewer. The Next Quartile: The mini-bye is after game #10. I’ll use the next four games in this quartile. Atlanta will be the underdog at Tampa, home to SF, and at Cincy. They are 3-0 the last three hosting SF, but the last such host was in 2016. The good news: SF will have just played at Carolina and will likely stay in the area after the game. After Cincy, Atlanta hosts troubled Carolina, hoping to reverse current home struggles. 2-2 keeps them highly motivated and that should be the goal.
CAROLINA: Matt Ruhle might be one loss away from losing his job. A pair of long field goals (57, 50 yards) prevented them from a possible 2-0 start, but Baker Mayfield and the offense has looked bad most of the time. The overall sack ratio remains negative at 6-11. In reality the team is not that far away from true contention, but the deadly combination of Mayfield operating behind a below par OL and with limited TE help makes this a hard team to like. The Next Quartile: It’s honestly one game at a time for this team, but there are two touch points where Ruhle’s job security is at stake. They host SF this Sunday, and SF will be fresh off a MNF critical and emotional revenge game vs. the Rams. Look bad here, and it could be exit, stage left. They’ll be underdogs in each of the next five games (counting SF), including games at Atlanta and at Cincy in back-to-back weeks. Cincy, like SF will be off MNF. If somehow Ruhle survives this, Carolina hosts Atlanta on 11/10, which is a Thursday. Lose at home (0-3 the last three), and he’ll be gone during the mini-bye. How will Mayfield and the offense play under this outside pressure? The floor is spiraling toward a top tier QB in the 2023 NFL draft. The ceiling is 3-3, which given the defensive stat sheet, is not out of the question. Watch the play calling and the offense closely for clues as to how they react.
CHICAGO: Justin Fields has 34 pass completions and 34 rushing attempts. Let that sink in. He’s 34-67 passing, and has been sacked 16 times. Chicago however is 2-2, and could care less. It’s not an unexpected 2-2 for me, as they had a fantastic situation week one vs. SF, and I projected them to split games hosting Houston and at the NYG. Chicago does not trust their QB and it shows. The defense is decent, but some stats are starting to slip, mostly due to DL attrition last Spring. The Next Quartile: There’s no clean quartile to work with. For me, the logical approach is just to look at the next two games, at Minny and home to Washington on a Thursday Night. After that is the coveted new coach (mini) bye week, and a new focus. In looking at these two games, Chicago has opportunities. Minny is NOT taking a break after London. I’m not convinced that the Minny defense is good enough for this to be an automatic win, and in addition the Vikings have a week five indicator that is solidly against them and carries year to year merit. Anything is possible with Carson Wentz at QB, so the Bears could easily be the right side in that short week (host) game. I’m bearish on this team but 4-2 is possible. Watch OL play closely.
DALLAS: Dak Prescott is better than Cooper Rush but Cooper has some QB characteristics that are quite favorable. He seldom takes sacks and is NOT turnover prone. There’s a limit to what he can do besides give them a spark, but at 3-1, Dallas is happy. What I didn’t see coming was 15 defensive sacks. 13 of those sacks came vs. Joe Burrow and his weak OL, Dan Jones and his weak pass blocking OL and Carson Wentz and his decision-making. Therefore, let’s see what happens down the road. The Next Quartile: This gets tougher. They face the Rams and Eagles on the road, host the Lions, and host Chicago. They are lucky to get LA off their MNF game, but depending on that result, Dallas could be in a negative situation. The rested Lions will face Dallas after the Cowboys face Philly. Chicago will be at a disadvantage. 2-2, and 5-3 overall probably is the most likely result.
DETROIT: Detroit games are exciting. Their games average 70 points, with 52 being the lowest result. They are 0-3 in close games. Learning how to win is not easy, especially with their defensive issues. They scored 45 points last week without RB Swift and their leading WR, but they haven’t played the best defenses in the NFL thus far. Playing hard is one thing. Finding better players is the next step. The Next Quartile: With the bye week after the Sunday game (at New England), the true next quartile begins 10/23, so that’s where I’ll start. Having rest before traveling to Dallas gives them a shot, especially if the transition to Dak Prescott is not as smooth as Dallas might hope. Hosting Miami could be interesting, but the Lions must contend with all their speed. They’ve split the last four hosting GB, but that’s a bit misleading, as GB has not always tried when the game has been played at the end of the regular season. Regardless, they have an opportunity to split these home games. I’d also predict a split in road games at Chicago and then at the NYG, although the Chicago game sets up much better for the home team. Realistically, this is a build for 2023 type of year, with a likely record of 3-7 prior to their three-game home stand.
GREEN BAY: The Packers head to London at 3-1, but it hasn’t been easy adjusting to life without WR Adams. They scored just 14 points in a win over a depleted Tampa team, and needed exactly 70 minutes to beat Bradley Zappe and New England. The time to beat GB is now, before all the moving offensive parts begin to jell. GB sports a negative sack ratio (8-12), and a very poor pass D%. Smoke, mirrors, and Aaron Rodgers has them at 3-1. The Next Quartile: There’s no logical break in the next quartile, so my best guess is that with just one home game in weeks 5-9, GB will use the end of their three-game road trip as the focal point. Likely 5-1 beforehand, the road games are at Washington (lost last three there), at Buffalo on Sunday Night, and at Detroit. Both the mini-bye and full bye week are later in November. The stat sheet suggests that 3-2 is likely, which would add up to 6-3. Go 7-2 and I think they still could attain the #1 seed. I came into the season believing GB would still win the Division, but their 2021 point ratio, their run defense, the loss of WR Adams, and their league-worst -13 rest differential had me thinking they would need time to get up to speed. I still think that’s the case, but winning ugly is still winning.
LOS ANGELES RAMS: I delayed writing this section until after the Rams played San Fran. That loss (standalone early season playoff revenge with SF having on-field matchup edges) was predictable, and not necessarily damaging. What is an issue is the current roster. This nearly exact same roster would have gone 9-8 in 2021. Instead, in-season additions at RB, WR, edge rusher and DB changed the talent level in a massive way. All four of those players are gone. What’s left is a bottom five run game, and a QB who had an offseason “procedure” now operating behind an OL whose left tackle retired. That OL has allowed 16 sacks and Stafford has a 4-6 TD to interception ratio. Luckily for them, SF is not healthy enough to run away with this Division, so LA is still in the mix for a playoff home game. The Next Quartile: Again, we have no logical quartile two break, so I’ll just discuss the next three games, all at home. They have one less day to prepare for Dallas, but the Cowboys do have a week five situational disadvantage that gives LA the edge. They should bottle up Baker Mayfield and Carolina next, and then LA has a perfectly timed week off before rematching with the 49ers. Home games in this series have come down to the wire. LA must get more mileage out of their current OL, and can’t have another game where the sack ratio is 7-0 in favor of SF. LA has tallied 199 defensive sacks over the past four seasons, with 48 their lowest total. I expect a rested Ram team to improve their 2022 figures (just seven so far over games 1-4).
MINNESOTA: All of a sudden, this team is winning close games. They came from behind to beat Detroit and won late vs. New Orleans. As I wrote in my NFL preview, this team had an amazing ten tossup games on its schedule. I expect more games to come down to the wire, as the pass attack is finally in vogue post the Mike Zimmer era, while the pass defense is a sore spot, keeping opponents in games. QB Cousins has already thrown 158 passes! RB Cook has to stay healthy. His presence in London last week did make a difference. I said Minny would have 47 defensive sacks in 2022. They only have nine thus far, but more opportunities are coming. The Next Quartile: Week five usually is a heavy volume week on my end. Many of my favorite situations appear in week five. YES, coach’s think in quartiles. The situations I use range from 57% to over 70%, with a cumulative sample size of just over 400. Minny has had mixed results hosting Chicago and, on the surface, Chicago’s LACK of a pass attack plays into Minny’s hands, but the Vikings have a start of the 2nd quartile negative situation that is about in the 61% range. Maybe not having the bye right after playing in London in meaningless, but it doesn’t help either. I have their next three games all as tossups, right in line with my preseason analysis. They travel to a Miami team that may or may not have Tua at QB, host Arizona with WR Hopkins and a pass attack that can be troublesome for this secondary, and go to Washington, which could be a win, but I don’t see this as an automatic win. They are good enough to get to 6-2, but I need to see more from the defense for that to become a reality, plus guys like RB Cook must stay on the field.
NEW ORLEANS: I’ve used the phrase, “addition by subtraction” many times. Think Urban Meyer for that reference, among others. Unfortunately, the phrase that fits best here is, “subtraction by subtraction”. Sean Payton is NOT in the building, and not counting the fourth quarter, these Saints have scored points at an alarmingly low rate. Their 1-3 record is justified, and their body language can’t be all that great after losing a close game in London. Tampa is just 2-2, so even though it feels like the Bucs are much better than the Saints, it’s only one game in the standings. Two things need immediate attention: The -7 turnover ratio and the 7-13 sack ratio. The Next Quartile: The mini-bye comes after game #7, so let’s discuss the next three games. If you put the London trip aside, the Saints are in a “backs to the wall” good situation for this week. Can they focus off London vs. a Seattle team that is clearly in roster rebuilding mode? They stay at home to face a Cincinnati team who will have just faced rival Baltimore. This trio of games concludes with a Thursday, short week trip to Arizona. My suggestion: Bring Sean Payton back to scheme vs. the vulnerable Cardinal defense. I think they go 2-1 in this sequence, giving them hope the rest of the way. Protecting the ball and their QB would be a good place to start.
NEW YORK GIANTS: The NYG sit at 3-1, but are two plays away from 1-3. I see them as a flawed team with a massive upgrade at Head Coach and GM. The 2022 draft has them on the right track in roster building. 3-1 doesn’t mesh with the current roster, which sees them with a really poor OL, virtually no healthy or productive WR’s, and a secondary that on paper is weaker than last year’s below par unit. Daniel Jones has completed 67 passes for just 631 yards, and the OL has allowed 14 sacks. QB’s faced thus far are Ryan Tannehill, Baker Mayfield, Cooper Rush, and Justin Fields. You can thank the NFL for a schedule that enabled this team to get to 3-1. The Next Quartile: Games 5-8 represent the 2nd quartile. They play GB in London, eschew the bye week and host Baltimore, travel to suddenly relevant Jacksonville and stay on the road, traveling cross country to visit Seattle (yes, I know they will come home first, but that’s a long trip). 2-2 is the goal, getting them to 5-3 and keeping them not only in the playoff hunt, but in the Divisional hunt. I see 1-3, with 0-4 possible, although all these teams have some areas of concern as well. Buy in has been achieved, and not noted is the exceptional play of RB Barkley. I don’t think going 1-3 (4-4 overall) is a sign of decline. I also think they need to upgrade from QB Jones regardless of how much success they have this season. Can he get them to 9-8? Quite possibly yes, but his low ceiling prevents the staff from reaching their ultimate goal. I’ll be watching the OL, and especially the secondary as they face much better QB’s in this next sequence of games.
PHILLY: Philly is the last remaining undefeated team, and we’re only through four games. I’ve spoken repeatedly about how GM Roseman builds his team, and the results are significant. They target players in the draft and go get them, often at the expense of their more passive rivals. They sign key free agents. They identify roster flaws and try to fix them, even right before the start of the season (two DB additions). QB Hurts still has some room to grow regarding his accuracy, but he’s one of the smartest NFL QB’s and has been a winner everywhere he’s been. I must note that turnover luck got them the win hosting Jacksonville, but that pass D% is playoff worthy thus far, along with their 16 defensive sacks. The Next Quartile: Games 5-6 are before their full bye, and games 7-8 are before their mini-bye. I expect at least a split at Arizona and hosting Dallas. Dallas has held their own at Philly. A win in this spot would be huge. Following the full bye, Philly hosts Pittsburgh (two edges for the Eagles) and then head to Houston for the Thursday game on short rest. The stat sheet shows a team that could reach 7-1 when all is said and done. What concerns might I have? Their current +8 turnover ratio is likely not sustainable, and while QB Hurts is really good at avoiding the rush, the OL has some players missing and is graded just average in pass protection.
SAN FRANCISCO: With the season (potentially) on the line, SF responded on Monday Night, winning with playoff revenge vs. rival LA in what I felt was a great spot for them situationally as well as with the on-field metrics. But with losses to Chicago (expected, bad matchup week one) and Denver (ugly tossup game), the 49ers have to know that their current roster is not good enough or healthy enough to take any game for granted. It’s not a surprise that Deebo Samuel is a superstar, but right now, the team misses lead RB Jeff Mitchell and TE Kittle is not close to 100%. For one game at least, they survived without their stud left tackle, who is out for the entire season. SF has allowed just 46 points. This is a top three unit. The Next Quartile: Games 5-8 (before their full bye) are at Carolina, at Atlanta, home to Pat Mahomes and KC and at the Rams. This is a sneaky tough set of games, and likely their toughest quartile. Carolina has issues, but also a strong week five indicator that gives them a point spread advantage, but not necessarily a win outright advantage. Somehow, SF should find a way to win that game, but their offense must play better to get to 2-0 vs. an improving Atlanta team. I’m projecting just 2-2 in this quartile, and that’s NOT a deal breaker, as the Rams have a far tougher 2nd half of the season schedule. AFTER the bye, Mitchell should be good to go, Kittle will presumably be rested, and one of their DB’s will be back and in playing shape. This quartile is all about staying the course.
SEATTLE: This is a strange team to handicap. Pete Carroll is a youthful 70-year-old coach (as I wrote about), and he relishes this challenge but even at 2-2 I see a very flawed team. There’s no question Geno Smith has exceeded expectations, but he’s not much for stretching the field. I don’t see any more upside coming, but the Seahawks would be thrilled if this level was maintained. Both the run D and the pass D are flawed, and they’ve allowed 115 points. The Next Quartile: They have six games before the full bye week, so I’m treating this as a large quartile. They are lucky New Orleans just played in London, and maybe lucky that the Saints lost late (moral check), but the week five situation favors New Orleans. Arizona has won four of five at Seattle. I think this defense is in trouble in that game, so any win chance depends on Geno finishing drives. They also travel to Arizona during this stretch, but I think a series split is their ceiling. With both LA and SF having current challenges, Seattle can stay in the race with a split, plus a necessary home win vs. the NYG. Lose that one, and we may be a downward spiral, so watch for that. The extended quartile ends in Munich, vs. Tom Brady and Tampa. Brady should have his way vs. this defense. I like the spunk of this team and they have both a run game and two legit WR’s offensively, but 4-6 seems like the safest prediction after the Munich game, and even that hinges on their defense being more competitive than it currently is.
TAMPA BAY: Tom Brady and ten zombies can probably beat your team, even at 45 years of age. Lost in their 41-31 setback vs. KC is the fact that Tom and Tampa put up 31 points, and he had three TD passes. Still, Tampa is a flawed team that would have been 1-3 had Marcus Lattimore (New Orleans) not been ejected. Tampa ran the ball just six times vs. KC. I suspect the staff will look at the stat sheet and use a more balanced attack moving forward. I said Tampa is “flawed” but maybe that’s the wrong word to use. In truth, the OL is down three bodies, the WR’s are not fully healthy, and yes, Gronk is not on the field, limiting red zone success in three of their four games. Tampa did hold Aaron Rodgers and GB to 14 points and they have 14 defensive sacks on the season. The Next Quartile: Tampa should fix their run attack hosting Atlanta this week. Road games at Pittsburgh and Carolina are next. This looks like 2-1 or 3-0 as long as Brady is careful with the ball, as both Pitt and Carolina are flawed at QB, giving Tampa’s defense the edge. The quartile ends with a Thursday host of Baltimore. That game might be decided by how Brady handles the Baltimore blitz. Based on Baltimore’s pedigree, he’ll be fine. With New Orleans struggling under the coaching change, 3-1 in this quartile just puts more distance between the Bucs and the rest of the Division.
WASHINGTON: Washington is dysfunctional off the field, and in quartile #1, looked just as dysfunctional on the field. The stat sheet says Carson Wentz has regressed, with a low yards-per-completion figure and five interceptions. The turnover ratio is -6, and the sack ratio is 9-17. The OL is allowing far more sacks than I had projected. The pass D% is decent. It’s troublesome that a) all losses have been by over a touchdown, and b) WR McLaurin has but 14 receptions. The Next Quartile: There’s no natural break in this quartile, as after Washington hosts Tennessee, they travel to Chicago for the short week, Thursday game. I’ll cover October for this quartile, something the staff may do as well. Should we trust Washington to defeat Tennessee? My metrics gives them a shot, and the week five indicator is similar to the one New Orleans and Carolina have (specific subset is 51-29 ATS). The game at Chicago is also in the winnable category. Playing for wild card status only, I think 2-0 would put them back in the mix. The games after the mini-bye are home to GB and at Indy, where Wentz was kicked out of town based on last year’s meltdown. This looks like 0-2 or 1-1 at best. Clearly, my watch points are OL performance, QB turnovers, and getting their playmakers more involved offensively.
