By Ron Marmalefsky (@ronacesports)
This week’s digest discusses current team value. I have created NFL and NCAA power rating for nearly four decades. I use them as a guideline for making decisions, and they have been very useful in my overall handicapping results. When my Power Ratings are off by more than two points I want to know why. Is it injury related? Is it due to public perception and nothing more? Is it something I may have missed? At other times, my Power Ratings are right in line, but there’s still a reason to believe that Team A may be overvalued, or Team B may be undervalued. Game placement, metrics and team vs. team matchups are just some of the reasons why one team might have an advantage over another.
This week’s digest takes a more global view of the situation. Five weeks are in the books. Which teams do I feel are potentially overpriced or underpriced. The list below represents my thoughts.
NOTE: Some of the teams listed below are NOT necessarily buy on or fade prospects right now as you will see in the writing.
OVERPRICED TEAMS:
ATLANTA: Atlanta is 5-0 vs. the spread so on paper they are flying under the radar. In reality, they blew a big lead vs. rival New Orleans, got down 28-3 to the Rams, won a pair of 50-50 games that were there for the taking vs. Seattle and Cleveland, and got down 21-0 to Tampa before rallying. Mariota is under 58%, the pass D is close to 69% and the sack ratio is 8-12. While I’m not in favor of blindly fading this team when getting points, I do think there will be times where their defense will be exposed, and/or the offense won’t be able to sustain drives. I love the run component Mariota brings, but despite my 3.5 increase in their opening Power Number for 2022, I feel their market price is a bit high.
CAROLINA: For a few weeks now most of us have seen the writing on the wall for Matt Ruhle. The last straw was when they lost badly in a listless effort vs. SF, where my metrics and my situations were in their favor. Did we miss the boat? I don’t think so. I noted on a show a few weeks ago that if he was to be fired, things would not get better. Interim coach Wilks underachieved in his initial coaching stint and I don’t see a major reason for optimism now. QB play is dismal. The sack ratio is 8-17. All this has occurred with McCaffrey ON the field. This is a fade or pass situation moving forward. For the record, oddsmakers have adjusted rapidly this week in the game vs. the LA Rams, but I expect some value after that.
NEW YORK JETS: Unlike some writeups below, this is a team I think will be overpriced right now, and underpriced in their final four games. This will seem contrary to public perception, but this fits the buy low, sell high mantra some people believe in. Look at their wins: They were down 13 late to Cleveland and the game should have ended right then. They were down 20-10 to Pitt and for some reason the Steelers kept passing with their rookie QB in his first action. They were in a fantastic spot vs. Miami, but also benefitted from numerous Miami injuries. As of today, Zach Wilson is near the bottom of NFL accuracy, which is understandable given his lack of game experience, coupled with a subpar OL. I love the quality of their 2022 draft and the chemistry of their team, but I see reasons to believe this team will have some rough spots until we get to mid-December.
TAMPA: This is more of a projection, and not where we are right now. Tampa isn’t necessarily playing peak football right now, but their win at New Orleans gives them an exceptional shot at repeating as NFC South Champions. As the record improves with expected wins over Pitt this week and Carolina next week, so will public inflate. Beginning in late November, Tampa goes to Cleveland, hosts revenge-minded New Orleans and plays at SF. If we do indeed see the public buying into this team more than what might be deserved, then it will be time to look for value fading the Bucs.
WASHINGTON: Beginning week four, my Power Numbers have been three to four points off. I had Dallas and Tennessee as deserving to be bigger favorites then they were vs. Washington, and I did not understand the line movement that pushed this team to a pick vs. Tennessee. Turnovers may be random, but with Wentz, some negativity should be expected. The OL has allowed 20 sacks, and while the team has other statistical areas that are in the “average” category, leadership is lacking and frustration is evident, as we all heard Ron Rivera calling out his QB. This week I feel an adjustment has been made by the oddsmakers, and the line value is not there, but I’m not running to the window to endorse this team unless I get value MY way.
UNDERPRICED TEAMS:
BUFFALO: Buffalo is 3-1-1 vs. the spread, and 4-1 overall. Everyone likes them, so why are they here? They are here because my numbers say they are 4.5 points above EVERY NFL team on neutral ground. Where’s the weakness, other than injury luck at TE and throughout their defense? Through careful drafting (as usual) I expected defensive sacks to rise. With 16 in five games, they are exceeding my lofty expectations. I’ll credit Las Vegas Cris for pointing out that double digit favorites have covered at a stunningly consistent rate for nearly a decade. I can’t be afraid of backing the Bills based on my Power Numbers.
CINCINNATI: Like with KC in 2021, it takes time for a rebuilt OL to fully jell. UNLIKE KC, there is still a worry, as KC’s free agents were higher rated by me, and KC stole two OL in the 2021 draft, whereas Cincy ignored the OL in the 2022 draft. Still, the public sees a flawed 2-3 team, and I see a team off a Super Bowl hangover (much deserved for this organization) who has lost three games by a TOTAL OF EIGHT POINTS. Like with Tampa, above, this is not something that might happen right away. With a current sack ratio of 8-19 and an OL not creating holes for the run game, my recommendation is to take a deep breath and WAIT for their full bye week. Let’s watch the pricing on this team. There will be peaks and valleys based on their large number of prime-time games but I think the overall team talent will be underrated by the time their bye week hits.
LAS VEGAS: Last year this team went an unstainable 4-0 in overtime games. This year they are 0-1 in overtime, and have lost three additional games by a grand total of eight points. As expected, the pass D% is poor. Also as expected, the OL has pass protection issues. Still, I felt they were at a buy low price before the Denver game, and they were slightly underpriced at KC. Yes, we await news on TE Waller’s health and any possible suspension for WR Adams, but QB Carr is a savvy veteran, and in their five-game sample size, they have scored 125 points and there’s no reason to believe that will drop when at full strength. In my opinion Coach McDaniels called a very good game vs. KC and has a good sense of offensive strategy. I have a ticket or two under NINE season wins, but my Power Number for this team shows them with 9-8 potential. Maybe they don’t get there (which is my hope), but if they are set to play even more close games, I think there’s value on them moving forward.
ONE TEAM I UNDERVALUED THAT IS PROPERLY PRICED:
MINNESOTA: This is one team that I feel I have undervalued, and that I need to adjust my own ratings. As handicappers, we are not immune to having soft numbers, and here is one example. Are they perfect? No, as in their recent three-game win streak they are just 0-2-1 vs. the spread using consensus numbers, and 0-3 vs. the spread using closing numbers. I list them as an underpriced team for me, but likely a properly priced team in the market, so as recent spread results indicate, I have no overall feeling moving forward other than this fact: My NFL season preview noted that Minny had, according to my game-by-game analysis, a league high ten tossup games. With that in mind, playing the underdog in their games had to be strongly considered. Thus far, the dog is 4-1 (or 3-1-1) in their games, and I am 2-0 with this strategy in mind.
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