By Ron Marmalefsky (@ronacesports)
OPENING STATEMENT: In this week’s weekly digest, I stay with the PAC 12, breaking down the USC-Arizona game. Is USC still a viable NCAA playoff contender? Both teams are rested and ready to go for this one.
USC Preseason Prognosis: Transfers were the name of the game out West, as the Trojans added Oklahoma QB Williams, two solid RB’s from Oregon and Stanford, and former Pittsburgh WR Addison offensively, and filled a few holes in the back seven defensively, including a known LB from Alabama. They obviously upgraded at Head Coach, but some people may not realize that they upgraded at other coaching spots as well, stealing Utah’s RB coach and Michigan’s DL coach. I upgraded all offensive numbers, but only slightly upgraded 2021’s porous defensive numbers, projecting a 4.55 per carry run D and a 63.5% pass D. My biggest worries (written about in my 66-page NCAA preview) were DL performance and injuries, as behind the star players their seemed to be little to no depth.
Arizona Preseason Prognosis: Year #1 for the new coaching staff was awful, with one win, that vs. a Cal team who just prior to game time lost 20+ players due to Covid protocols. Like with USC, the Wildcats were heavily invested in the transfer portal. They upgraded at QB with former WSU signal-caller de Laura, and added defensive players from UCLA, USC and Michigan. There were other transfers as well, but what was even better is that the program recruited well, earning higher than usual marks from their freshman and JUCO class. My team keys coming into 2022 were as follows: Fixing the -17 turnover ratio, QB TD passes, which were dismal in 2021, and their red zone defense, which was 130th in the nation last year (97.4% success rate allowed). It was not hard to project a better offensive performance, but I had a concern with their pass defense.
USC 2022 Performance: No one could stop USC in games 1-3, but the Trojans caught a massive break playing at Corvallis, winning late and winning only due to a +4 turnover ratio. That turnover ratio now stands at +15, but QB Williams has cooled off just a bit from his electric start. The week off should make things better. The run game is at 5.55 per carry (as usual, corrected for sacks using my formula), and WR Addison has clearly shown his 1st round NFL talent. The run D is currently at 4.7, and the pass D is around 63%, so my projections are spot on thus far. There’s a chance that we’ll see some defensive improvement with the week off. USC is off a late, emotional loss to Utah, so again, the bye week is a blessing.
Arizona 2022 Performance: Scoring 38 points in the opener at SD St (in their new stadium) was quite an achievement, and paved the way for an offense that has averaged over 31 points per game, which was better than anyone could expect. Considering the competition (four solid bowl teams, plus perennial title-winner North Dakota State), the 4.85 per carry rush attack and solid QB play by de Laura (63.3%, 19-7 ratio) is quite an achievement. The issue is their defense, which has allowed 6.0 per carry and over 70% through the air. Again, the schedule has been brutal, and perhaps the 32 points allowed per game is relatively consistent with expectations, but even with rest, the slate of opponents does not get any easier, so the defense as they say “is what it is”. Hosting USC and their offense will not be fun.
KEYS TO THE GAME: The absolute 1st key to this game has to be turnovers. USC’s ratio is +15, while Arizona’s is -6. USC has intercepted 12 passes, while Arizona has intercepted just two. For USC, this will be one of the better running teams they will face. I expect Arizona to run well in this game. Mobile QB’s have had their way vs. the Wildcats. If he desires, Caleb Williams can run effectively in this spot. As noted above, both teams have had the week off. Which defense might use that time wisely? I expect de Laura to have success throwing the ball, but careless throws will severely damage any upset hopes, as USC is likely to score if they have a short field to work with, and might score on most drives no matter where drives start.
FINAL THOUGHTS AND PROJECTED OUTCOME: I have no situations to note, and rush data does not come into play based on the spread for this game (15.5). A mild (54%) indicator for Arizona is not in play with both teams off rest. USC is still a viable playoff contender, but they will need style points, as the schedule is soft until they face UCLA and Notre Dame, who actually won’t help them much in the ratings. Instead, they have to hope for convincing outcomes, plus a PAC 12 title matchup vs. Oregon. At 4-3, Arizona would love to make this a bowl season. After this game, they go to Utah and UCLA, and host WSU and ASU. They beat Washington as a 14-point dog. They’ll likely need one more upset, plus a win vs. ASU to achieve 6-6. The total for this game is a massive 75. That indicates about a 45-30 outcome. There’s certainly the possibility that both defenses could improve with rest, but I’m leaning OVER the total. Once again, this game hinges on Arizona finishing drives with scores and not with turnovers. At equal turnovers, I project 49-37. If USC wins the turnover battle by one, the game still projects slightly over the total, as long as we don’t see massive turnovers (example 3-2 edge), which could end red zone drives. For fans who like high scoring games, this is your sirloin steak. Arizona gets credit for a surprising 2021 turnaround, but comes up a bit short.
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