Article written by Kiev from The Oddsbreakers and I just added some of my notes in as well.
There are a lot of coaching changes this year. As sports bettors, and/or college basketball fans, we all know how important these coaches are to predicting outcomes. Pace is a massive factor when it comes to the point differential as well as the total amount of points that are scored in a game. I categorize each team as either, Much Faster, Faster, No Change, Slower, Much Slower and NA for not enough information. Keep in mind that these are all projections based on association, and past performance. Here are the coaching changes with my predictions for 2022/2023 pace of play. Follow me on twitter for more wagering content @OBKiev.
Alabama A&M: Dylan Howard / Otis Hughley, Jr. – Not enough information. He previously served as the head coach of the Nigerian national team, where he guided the team to three AfroBasket Women championships and the 2020 Summer Olympics. NA
Alabama State: Mo Williams / Tony Madlock – Tony was at South Carolina State and also had a fast pace of play ranking 44th in tempo to Alabama State last year ranking 62nd. No changes here. No change
Ball State: James Whitford / Michael Lewis – Ball state ranked 46th in tempo with James Whitford while Michael Lewis from UCLA ranked 277th in Tempo under head coach Mick Cronin. I expect slow play. Much Slower
Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- One of the biggest tempo changes in the country. Lewis will focus more on defense and they will slow things down drastically.
Butler: LaVall Jordan / Thad Matta – Thad is back at Butler and will increase the pace from 326 to around the 200 area. Faster
Chattanooga: Lamont Paris / Dan Earl – Going from 304th to 78th looks like a big step up on speed for the Mocs. Much Faster
*Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- This will be one of the biggest tempo changes in the country. Earl’s teams consistently were also very efficient on offense.
The Citadel: Dugger Baucom / Ed Conroy – Ed Conroy from Vanderbilt takes the team from 34th to 130th in Tempo. Being that the SEC played fast in general, this number could go down to the 200s. Much Slower
Cleveland State: Dennis Gates / Daniyal Robinson – Most of Robinson’s assistant tenure was under fast paced Steve Prohm until Iowa State slowed it down last year, so not enough info here for me. NA
Davidson: Bob McKillop / Matt McKillop – 307th in pace should stay the same with the father to the son here. No Change
*Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- Matt McKillop said he wants Davidson to look to score in transition more than they have in the past (almost none). I don’t think they will be fast, but I expect them to be a little faster.
Duke: Mike Krzyzewski / Jon Scheyer- Mentor to Mentee means no change, however I will say that Duke has slowed it down some over the past two years. No Change
East Carolina: Joe Dooley / Michael Schwartz – 138th in tempo to a bit slower at around 180th-ish from Michael’s tenure as an assistant at Tennessee. Great defense though! Slower
Elon: Mike Schrage / Billy Taylor – 253rd in tempo to the 50s. Billy Taylor was an assistant at Iowa. Expect no D. Much Faster
Evansville: Todd Lickliter / David Ragland – 329th in Tempo to roughly the same. Ragland was an assistant at Butler – No Change
Fairleigh Dickinson: Greg Herenda / Tobin Anderson – 54th in Tempo to not sure. Tobin was a Division 2 coach at Saint Thomas Aquinas – NA
Florida: Mike White / Todd Golden – 267th in Pace mainly slower due to decent defense. Todd had the Dons at 82nd in pace last year, but that was an increase from average over the years. Faster
Florida Gulf Coast: Michael Fly / Pat Chambers – 40th in pace to probably around 150th. Pat Chambers played pretty fast in the Big 10 but much slower than Michael Fly last year. Slower
Fordham: Kyle Neptune / Keith Urgo – Keith was Kyle’s mentee last year so no change from average pace. No Change
*Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- I expect Fordham to play faster under Urgo this year. Urgo said in the preseason that Fordham wanted to play a much faster pace last year, but injuries made them slow things down. He should be pushing the pace here. I still think their offense is weak though.
George Washington: Jamion Christian / Chris Caputo – 83rd to maybe around 150th. A little slower for Caputo coming from Miami. Slower
Georgia: Tom Crean / Mike White – 99th to 267th will certianly be slower for the former Florida coach. Tom Crean used to lose very fast! Much Slower
Georgia State: Rob Lanier / Jonas Hayes – 169th to about the same with the former assistant and interim head coach of Xavier Jonas Hayes. No Change
High Point: Tubby Smith / G.G. Smith – Another Father to son transition. 250th-ish over Tubby’s career. No Change
Illinois State: Dan Muller / Ryan Pedon – 119th in pace to 289th for the former assistant coach at Ohio State. That’s slower for sure. Much Slower
Jackson State: Wayne Brent / Mo Willliams – 337th to 62nd is a huge change. Almost like Deon Sanders type speed! Much Faster
Missouri Kansas City: Billy Donlon / Marvin Menzies – Donlon picked up the pace last year some but was known for slower play in the past. Marvin was an assistant from Grand Canyon and will push it back to slow around 280th in pace. Slower
Kansas State: Bruce Weber / Jerome Tang – Webber’s fastest year was last year at 213th, but Jerome Tang the former assistant at Baylor will keep it close. No Change
La Salle: Ashley Howard / Fran Dunphy – 173rd to probably around 240th. Fran Dunphy’s years at Temple gave him the most success when he played a slower pace. Slower
Lafayette: Fran O’Hanlon / Mike Jordan – From 303rd to about 150 ish-with the former Colgate and Drexel assistant coach. Faster
LIU: Derek Kellogg / Rod Strickland – From 6th in pace to I am guessing average. Not a lot of data on Rod Strickland, but as an assistant in 2014 to 2017 with South Florida, they played an average pace. Slower
Louisiana Tech: Eric Konkol / Talvin Hester – from 102nd to 200 ish, Talvin Hester was an assistant coach at Louisiana Tech in the past, and Texas Tech just last year. Slower
*Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- Hester will likely slow things down some, and he has made it very clear his main focus is on making this a great defensive team.
Louisville: Chris Mack / Kenny Payne – 188th to about the same. Chris Mack was gone last year mid-season and the team started to play faster. Kenny Payne spent a lot of time as an assistant in Kentucky who played good D and an average pace. No Change
LSU: Will Wade / Matt McMahon – 101st to 200th. LSU slowed it down some last year but Matt McMahon from Murray State will slow it even more. Slower
Maine: Richard Barron / Chris Markwood – 229th to around 290th. Chris Markwood was a long time assistant at Northeastern. Slower
Maryland: Mark Turgeon / Kevin Willard – 211th in pace will probably stay close to the same. Kevin Willard was all over the place in pace at Seton Hall. No Change
Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- Hard to guess where Willard’s teams will finish in tempo, but I do think they will be improved on the defensive end over time.
UMass: Matt McCall / Frank Martin – 76th to probably around 10th. Frank Martin is a speedster as a former head coach at South Carolina. Faster
*Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- A faster pace for sure, but time will tell if their games will have more points or not. McCall’s teams were really bad on defense. Can Martin make them improve on defense?
Miami (OH): Jack Owens / Travis Steele – 132nd to about 170th for the former Xavier coach Travis Steele. Not a big enough change for me. No Change
Milwaukee: Pat Baldwin Sr. / Bart Lundy – 116th to maybe faster. Bart Lundy was in a lower division for a long time and it’s been 10 years since his Marquette assistant coaching days. NA
*Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- I think Lundy is an excellent coach. He wants to pick up full court man to man constantly, and I would expect a faster pace here. The team should be better with time as well.
Mississippi State: Ben Howland / Chris Jans – 259th to probably around 290th. Not a big change when Chris Jans was at New Mexico State. No Change
Mississippi Valley State: Lindsey Hunter / George Ivory – Mentor to Mentee relationship here so I assume they keep the super fast pace that ranked 1st 3 years ago. No Change
Missouri: Cuonzo Martin / Dennis Gates – 260th in pace to I am not sure. Dennis Gates has played fast and slow at Cleveland State depending on personal. No change
Murray State: Matt McMahon / Steve Prohm – 181st to 100th I predict. Steve Prohm played faster at Iowa State and he is back to his old coaching gig. Faster
New Mexico State: Chris Jans / Greg Heiar – 238th to 80th is what I forecast being that he was at LSU as an assistant under Will Wade from 2017 to 2020. Much Faster
*Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- A really good under the radar find here by Kiev. I think this will be one of the biggest tempo change teams.
North Carolina A&T: Will Jones/Phillip Shumphert (interim) – Not an ideal situation after Jones got fired just in August. Same average pace around 159th. No Change
Northwestern State: Mike McConathy / Corey Gipson – 18th to probably around 180th as Corey Gipson is coming from his assistant role at Missouri State. Much Slower
Omaha: Derrin Hansen / Chris Crutchfield – 50th to around 100th so slightly slower. Crutchfield has been an assistant at many programs like Oklahoma, TCU and Oregon. They all trended a bit faster than average. Slower
Rhode Island: David Cox / Archie Miller – 171st to 230th. Archie Miller played a little slower at Indiana but he might not be extreme here. Slower
Sacramento State: Brandon Laird (interim) / David Patrick – 324th to about 290th. David Patrick was an assistant at speedy Arkansas and then to slower Oklahoma. No Change
Saint Peter’s: Shaheen Holloway / Bashir Mason 247th to 270th. Bashir Mason started out fast at Wagner and slowed it down. No Change
San Diego: Sam Scholl / Steve Lavin – 262nd to 80th is my prediction. Steve Lavin coached at UCLA and Saint Johns before broadcasting. His kids played at a high tempo. Much Faster
San Francisco: Todd Golden / Chris Gerlufsen – Internal promotion from assistant. Remains 82nd in pace. No Change
Seton Hall: Kevin Willard / Shaheen Holloway – 167th to around 250th. Shaheen was a bit slower at St Peters. What a run last year! Slower
South Carolina: Frank Martin / Lamont Paris – 33rd to 300th. Lamont Paris at Chattanooga had a very slow pace of play. Much Slower
*Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- Paris is a good coach and he is excellent at getting his team to control the pace of the game. They will slow things down to a crawl.
South Carolina State: Tony Madlock / Erik Martin – 44th to maybe 120th. Erik Martin was an assistant at Press Virginia under Huggy Bear. Slower
South Dakota: Todd Lee / Eric Peterson- 256th to around 220. Eric Peterson bounced around Utah for a while. No Change
SMU: Tim Jankovich / Rob Lanier – 107th to about 70th. Rob Lanier from Georgia State plays a little faster than Tim Jankovich did. Faster
Tulsa: Frank Haith / Eric Konkol – 214th to 102nd is a bit faster for sure. Erik Konkol was good at LA Tech. Faster
Villanova: Jay Wright / Kyle Neptune – I still can’t believe he is gone! 340th to about the same. Kyle Neptune was Jay Wright’s protégé for a while. He however did play faster last year coaching for Fordham. No Change
Kyle Hunter’s thoughts- I think they will play a little bit faster under Neptune, but Villanova has been so efficient on offense under Wright that I’m not sure they will score more even with a slightly faster pace.
VMI: Dan Earl / Andrew Wilson – – 67th to 80th. Andrew Wilson came from James Madison where he was an assistant. No Change
Wagner: Bashir Mason / Donald Copeland- 217th to 167th isn’t significant where Donald Copeland came from Seton Hall. No Change
Weber State: Randy Rahe / Eric Duft – Eric was Randy’s assistant all the way back dating to 2006. The 60th in pace stays the same. No Change
Western Michigan: Clayton Bates / Dwayne Stephens – 331st to about 185th. Dwayne Stephens was an assistant to Tom Izzo dating back to 2003! Faster
Xavier: Travis Steele / Sean Miller – 100th to about 220th. Sean Miller didn’t play all that fast in Arizona for most of his years. Slower
Kyle Hunter’s Added Teams To Watch for Tempo Changes
Eastern Washington- Coach Riley says it is his goal to make his Eastern Washington team to play “much faster” in the year ahead. They were already quick, but it sounds like they want to be top 20 in tempo.
FIU- Jeremy Ballard’s team slowed things down a lot from their break neck pace from a couple years ago, but Ballard says his team is about to ramp up the tempo once again. Much faster.
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