Game Preview: LSU at Arkansas
By Ron Marmalefsky (@ronacesports)
OPENING STATEMENT: In this week’s weekly digest, I feature the SEC West Division. At the end of this week’s digest, I discuss a handicapping topic not often written about.
LSU Preseason Prognosis: Brian Kelly took over a team in disarray. Using the transfer portal, he rebuilt this team with immediate starters. My projections were on the average side running the ball, and an over 60% pass D. I thought they would be in serious trouble out of the gate vs. a highly experienced Florida State team, but would settle in to win about seven games.
Arkansas Preseason Prognosis: For the 2nd season in a row the Hogs were expected to play games vs. the nation’s toughest schedule. Playing Cincy was tough enough and traveling to BYU in the middle of a conference schedule was another challenge. I’m a big fan of QB Jefferson, and was looking forward to his 2022 season as someone on my short list for ascending NFL QB’s. I gave them a 4.8-4.25 rush ratio and a 60.5% pass D projection, and like LSU, about seven wins.
LSU 2022 Performance: LSU used comebacks to make games close in September and early October, but after losing to Tennessee the Tigers have been red hot, beating solid SEC teams Florida, Mississippi and Alabama by a total score of 122-86. The run attack is at 5.0 per carry (using my formula), which is a bit better than I expected. The run D is on my projected #, but the pass D% is also faring better than expected. QB Daniels uses his legs effectively, and has been very careful with the ball. He’s a great fit in this system.
Arkansas 2022 Performance: Losing to A&M 23-21 set Arkansas back, as that game was in their hands to win. That was followed by losses to Alabama and Miss St. They were trending up despite QB Jefferson at less than 100%, but got outplayed hosting Liberty, a good team for sure, but yet another game that fell in an awkward part of their season. My projections are almost exact, so on the field I have not been surprised.
KEYS TO THE GAME: For LSU, the defense has to play better in certain areas. They can be run on, and that is a worry. They need to unleash WR Boutte, a preseason top tier player at his position. I didn’t like his body language early in the season (pouting, some drops), but like most of the team, winning encourages buy-in, and he’s caught 23 passes his last four games. Now, can he break a big one? Finally, can LSU refocus after that enormous win in overtime vs. rival Alabama? For Arkansas, we need to know how healthy Jefferson is. He, like Daniels is an exciting run threat, and also like Daniels, throws for a high completion %. If he is comfortable in using his legs in this SEC game then that frees up the entire offense, including RB Sanders, who is fully capable of going 24-130 in this game. I noted that the defense is playing to my preseason projections, but all that means is that this is an average defense at best. Of course, the schedule has been brutal, so the numbers are not as bad as it seems. In fact, the defense was stout vs. Liberty, but it was their offense (maybe Jefferson’s health) that let them down. Finally, I think Arkansas needs to get off to a reasonably good start, which would help erase the loss from a week ago.
FINAL THOUGHTS AND PROJECTED OUTCOME: Last week I liked BYU (as written here a week ago), at least partly due to their massive strength of schedule edge, a disparity rarely, if ever seen so late into the season. Despite Arkansas playing a brutal schedule, and despite two trips right in the middle of their season to face bowl bound BYU and Liberty, I must note that LSU’s schedule is tough as well, even with layups vs. Southern U and New Mexico. But I still have some reasons to back the Hogs in this spot. While rush data is not relevant with LSU, it is for Arkansas, who for the 1st time this year will be a rush pick via my formula, in a 58% category. They did get beat by 23 to Alabama, but the bad loss to Miss St was with a backup QB. Arkansas is used to playing close games, and there are some soft +3.5 numbers available. The two worries are QB Daniels vs. an average Arkansas defense, and the health of QB Jefferson, but Arkansas and RB Sanders should be effective vs. this defense, and I can’t rule out a letdown from LSU in this spot. Ultimately, I see this as a 50-50 tossup, so that gives me Arkansas in this spot.
BONUS TOPIC: HANDICAPPING COACHES IN PERIL LATE IN THE SEASON
As I set about handicapping this week’s slate, one common theme kept reappearing. At least a dozen games feature a team whose Head Coach could lose his job with a loss, and especially a bad loss. More coaches than ever are getting fired during the season. Not that long ago, coaches had more time to build a program, and certainly did NOT get fired during the season. As we saw with USF last week, Jeff Scott, despite inheriting a bad roster, lost his job thanks to a bad loss to Temple. Teams playing this week that I feel fall into this category include (but are not limited to) Miami Ohio, Ball St, Tulsa, West Virginia, Indiana, Texas State and New Mexico. There’s more, but that’s the short list.
How should we handicap these games? For a team like New Mexico, I think he’s gone. Will this affect his team’s performance. For Indiana, another bad loss and their once promising program may need a reset. Tulsa lost their defensive coordinator and has regressed. Their coach has had more than enough time to stabilize the program. What about West Virginia? Do coaches change their offensive and/or defensive game plan to salvage the season or is it too late?
I do think each game and each situation may need to be looked at on its own merit. My advice to readers of this article is to make an effort to find out about where the “pulse” of the team is right now, by reading stories from beat writers, and local newspapers, and getting access to coach’s press conferences and interviews. Are players transferring? Are they fighting back, in full support of the program? Consider using the following site to get your information: https://sportspyder.com/sports/cf/teams. This site consistently updates with new stories each and every day.
FINALLY, I’d love to hear what you think should be the approach. PLEASE sent me a tweet or a direct message (DM) on twitter to me @ronacesports with your thoughts on handicapping games with coaches in peril. All comments are welcome and very much appreciated.
Visit me on twitter @ronacesports where I provide thoughts about all things football, and offer up additional handicapping analysis in podcast form as well.
