By Ron Marmalefsky (@ronacesports)
OPENING STATEMENT: It’s been a pleasure breaking down games in this spot each and every week for the 2022 NCAA season. I started the season by focusing on strategies and providing useable quick hitters and information beyond the traditional box score results. I want to end the regular season doing somewhat of the same. For the games listed below, I’ll discuss what stats look meaningful to me, and occasionally, what players to watch. I hope the information provided will help with each reader’s personal evaluation of the games this weekend.
NORTH TEXAS AT UTSA – CONFERENCE USA (FRIDAY):
Like many games this weekend, this is a rematch from earlier this season. On 10/22 UTSA hosted and won 31-27. What I find intriguing from that result is that North Texas ran just 21-32 (corrected for sacks, etc., using my formula), yet still nearly won outright as a ten-point underdog. In all other games North Texas ran for nearly 2,500 yards and over 5.6 per carry. What’s interesting is that UTSA was average at best vs. the run all season long, allowing 4.45 per carry and 42-253 last week to UTEP. I really like UTSA’s QB, but the game may be won or lost by whether or not UTSA can duplicate their run defense performance.
USC VS. UTAH – PAC 12 (FRIDAY):
USC has revenge from 10/15, when host Utah scored late and won on a successful two-point try, 43-42. USC QB Williams was electric that day, with five TD passes and 57 rushing yards. Utah’s veteran QB passed for over 400 yards and ran for 60 more. Three numbers intrigue me about this game. 1st, USC’s amazing +23 turnover ratio is best in the NCAA, BY FAR. I calculate each NCAA turnover in this day and age as being worth 3.75 points. USC has won the turnover battle in 11 of 12 games, and in the other game the ratio was even. Utah is a respectable +7 in turnover margin. 2nd, Utah’s corrected for sacks run defense stands at 4.3 per carry. That’s a bit high for them, but note it was hovering even higher, at 4.7 per carry midway through the season. Since facing USC, they have allowed 117-370 on the ground, far better than what would be expected. Finally, Utah’s QB is a run threat. Given USC’s mediocre stat sheet, his ability to run might be the deciding factor in this game.
KANSAS STATE VS. TCU – BIG 12:
This was the game K St QB Martinez was hurt. TCU fell behind, but rallied for the 38-28 home win. Replacement QB Howard has played much better since then, but his strength is not running the ball, and without the threat of the run, TCU’s fine pass defense (53.7%) will be at an advantage. If you look at the overall running numbers then there is no real edge, so my best guess as of this writing is that if healthy, QB Martinez would be the better fit for this game. TCU QB Duggan has thrown 29 TD’s with only three interceptions. Two TCU pass-catchers are the players that interest me the most for this rematch. TE Wiley went 5-74 in the initial meeting, with a TD. Until last week’s 3-36 performance, he had not topped two receptions in any other game. WR Quentin Johnson is a long-distance game changer. He was held out of last weeks game (said to be precautionary). He averages 16 yards per reception (4-74 vs. K St, one TD). How these players perform will likely decide the outcome of this game, unless QB Martinez is either really special, or a not so healthy liability.
UCF AT TULANE – CONFERENCE USA:
Tulane is the deserved host after halting Cincinnati’s home game win streak last week. Tulane has not been able to beat UCF of late, including a home loss on 11/12, 38-31. UCF runs 5.75 yards per carry and dominated on the ground in that game, to the tune of 53-343. Tulane averages 4.95 per carry and ran 27-159, playing catchup much of the way. Tulane RB Spears is special, and is the feature RB to watch in this game. Tulane QB Pratt has been great as well, with just four interceptions. With all that, here are my two areas I’m most interesting in. 1st, which QB plays for UCF? Plumlee has been the starter most of the year, but Keene has thrown 83 passes in four of the last five games, only missing the game vs. Tulane. In those games he has hit over 72%, including 15-19 last week, with just one interception all season. Plumlee is 44-68, also playing in four of the last five games, but with only two TD passes (Keene six). He was 9-9, for 73 yards last week, splitting time. The big difference is running the ball, as Plumtree is an elite run threat. For the year he has nearly 850 rushing yards (6.25) and nine TD’s, including a 133 yard effort on just eight carries last week. He ran 18-176-2 vs. Tulane. Plumlee left last week’s game with a hamstring injury. The situation needs to be monitored. 2nd, the chatter has been loud about Tulane’s Head Coach heading to Georgia Tech after this game. Does that get swept under the rug, or will it enter into the mindset for winning this game? The coach can do his best out block out the noise, but the media will be less tactful. Watch these two issues carefully prior to kickoff.
FRESNO STATE AT BOISE – MOUNTAIN WEST:
Yet another rematch, but both teams were undergoing changes at the time of the 40-20 Boise win on 10/12. Fresno was without their excellent QB and it showed, as Boise held them to 134 passing yards, no pass TD’s and two interceptions. Fresno RB Mims ran for over 1,000 yards this year, but was 21-61 in this spot. He has 14 rushing TD’s on the season. Boise QB Green made his first start in the earlier game, and had modest numbers, running just 11-22. He improved as the season went along, hitting 64% and rushing 437-7.15-8 TD’s. Both teams play stout pass D, but Jake Haener is the variable that was missing in the initial outing. He is over 73% for the season, is decisive, and sports a 17-3 TD-interception ratio. Does the handicapping come down to how QB Green does running the ball vs. the Fresno run D and how successful QB Haener is vs. the usually stout Boise pass D? It should also be noted that RB’s Holani and Jeanty ran wild in the 1st outing, combining to go 36-266. Stopping Boise’s run attack which now includes QB Green is imperative for Fresno.
GEORGIA VS. LSU – SEC:
This one is NOT a rematch, and would have been a very interesting game had LSU won last week at A&M. Instead, we are left to wonder if Georgia makes the playoffs even with a loss in this game. Running on Georgia is a challenge, and teams have exceeded 100 yards only twice (Oregon, opener and Missouri). LSU runs for about 195 yards per game, and QB Daniels is the #1 threat. He has run for 824 yards (not corrected for sacks) and 11 TD’s. Georgia faced Tennessee’s Hooker and met the challenge head on. Daniels must have a big game as a dual threat for LSU to be competitive in this matchup.
MICHIGAN VS. PURDUE – BIG TEN:
All the talk will be about Michigan and perhaps rightfully so, but Purdue generally exceeded expectations, including mine, as I rated their Head Coach as below average. The defensive stats are especially impressive, although I certainly understand that some of the opponents were offensively challenged (Iowa, Northwestern), coaching challenged (Nebraska), or just flat out one-dimensional (Illinois to some extent, Wisconsin, Minnesota). Extracting that information and applying it to facing a Michigan team that isn’t afraid to throw deeper routes is one of the challenges for this analysis. For Purdue, their passing game has not stretched the field much. For Purdue to be competitive, they must avoid turnovers. QB O’Connell had a stretch of seven games in a row where he threw at least one interception. Being careful vs. Northwestern and Indiana is nice, but can he stay turnover-free vs. Michigan? These areas are the ones I will be looking deeper at.
NEXT WEEK: Back to the NFL? With just five weeks left, what do we know about the contenders and the pretenders?
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