NFL Week 18 Game Previews
By Ron Marmalefsky (@ronacesports)
Another NFL season has come and gone. This once a year report previews every week 18 game. Within each preview will be what’s at stake, what my metrics say, how I’m approaching handicapping the game, and some tidbits related to player milestones and potential incentives.
NOTE: Except for Saturday’s games, all listings are in order only by Division, and not in order with regard to the official rotation.
NOTE: You will see a blank section for each team labeled personal season performance and Friday night update. I purposely left the personal season performance section blank for this distribution. FYI, this section contained all my preseason future plays (11-4 on season win plays), along with the in-season plays I made, and in many cases, the rational behind why I made the plays. I also have 24 pending seasonal player props that are NOT included in this report (51-29 in props already completed, which is actually not up to past standards due to a variety of reasons).
If you are interested in this part of the report, just email me at ronace2477@aol.com and I will send you the complete report on Saturday, which will include any Friday Night Updates.
KC at Vegas (Saturday):
Situation: KC is still in the running for the #1 overall seed. They need to win, and hope the Bills lose one of their now two remaining games. If the Cincy-Buffalo game is NOT played, a KC win gives them the #1 seed. Vegas underperformed in 2022, but that was not unexpected (as documented in my personal notes section for this game). Last week’s effort vs. SF was stout. They lost in overtime, but seemed encouraged by the play of their backup QB. That likely translates into a better effort this week than what could have been, but the offseason should be full of drama.
Metrics: KC’s pass rush is the line of scrimmage edge here. Both teams have below par pass D numbers related to QB accuracy. Three situational indicators are in play, and all three favor KC (two on their side, one against Vegas).
Decisions: I usually suspend Power Numbers for two weeks when a new, untested QB is thrown into the mix. I don’t have that luxury with Vegas, as the season ends this week. I thought the 9.5 spread was a tad high, but understandable, given the importance of the game for the Chiefs. No indicator favors KC however just based on them needing the game, because they already have the luxury of hosting at least one, if not two or more playoff games. Pass as of Tuesday.
Personal Seasonal Performance:
FYI: For prop players, WR Adams has 95 receptions, and needs just five more to reach a magic number. Smith-Schuster for KC needs two yards to earn a $500K bonus, but that has no relevance to playing week 18 player props. Nick Bolton is 2nd in the NFL with 165 tackles (and assists) but that’s also less relevant with KC playing for seeding and not any personal goals.
FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE:
Tennessee at Jacksonville (Saturday):
Situation: This is simple. The Jags host next week with a win or tie. Tennessee must win to claim the South. The loser is out!
Metrics: The Titans have imploded with six straight losses, and it seems like part of the reason is their antiquated offensive attack, one that doesn’t fare well when challenged to deviate away from running Derrick Henry. Rookie QB Willis seems light years away from NFL readiness, and so Tennessee goes with the more traditional option in this one with Joshua Dobbs. Meanwhile, the Jags are 4-0 lately and Urban Meyer is not welcome anywhere near their building. The sack edge goes to the Jags, as Tennessee’s OL will be challenged. The Titans have a really stout run D, which doesn’t always translate into wins. Situationally, this game might be low scoring based on one indicator. The Jags qualify in one very poor general NFL situation that has a sample size of 200.
Decisions: The NFL needs two bye weeks. Player safety is compromised with the longer season, as once again we have a QB in a meaningful game making only his 2nd start. Is the line of 6.5 a telling sign? The Jags may very well continue their roll, but I’m leaning heavily to Tennessee with a line of +7 or more.
Personal Seasonal Performance:
FYI: For prop players, this is a game of the upmost importance, so tread lightly on chasing player incentives as props plays for this one. Zay Jones needs two catches for $250K, and 98 yards for another $500K.
FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE:
New England at Buffalo:
Situation: As I write this, there’s a lot going on. The Buffalo-Cincy game has been suspended, and rightfully so. I have a proposal for how that game could still be played, and discussed it on a pair of Tuesday podcasts. The Bills, if they do not play the game, would need KC to lose to attain the #1 seed as long as they win this game. If their game at Cincy is put back on the schedule, Buffalo controls their own destiny. NE is in with an upset win here, which amazingly might be possible if KC wins on Saturday and Buffalo does NOT play their game vs. Cincy. In that scenario, the Bills have far less to play for. If NE loses this game, then they can still get in with losses by Miami and Pittsburgh.
Metrics: NE has the better pass D, as Buffalo has been strangely deficient in this area all season long, which in some cases has had them overvalued. NE has had issues vs. mobile QB’s and they face a good one here in Josh Allen. NE has amazingly won almost every game at Buffalo in the last two decades, including last year’s bitter cold affair. No situations exist here.
Decisions: Much depends on Buffalo’s motivation. I’ll pass on the discussion for now.
Personal Seasonal Performance:
For prop players, WR McKenzie (Buffalo) needs ten more receptions to earn $100K and 46 more receiving yards to earn another $100K. DL/edge rusher Lawson (NE) needs to get one sack to earn $200K
FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE:
NYJ at Miami:
Situation: The Jets are out of playoff contention. Miami needs a win, plus a NE loss at Buffalo.
Metrics: The Jets improved greatly defensively this season, totaling 44 defensive sacks (33 last year), a current mark of 62.3% on their pass D (68.3% last year), and a clearly improved run and point D. The revolving door at QB has stunted growth to some extent, but the players like Mike White, although his stat sheet is a bit below average for NFL QB’s. Miami has its own QB quandary. Tua is unlikely to play and Teddy Bridgewater has a damaged finger, leaving Skylar Thompson (54% in limited action, some run skill) as the potential starter. Miami has been very creative this year, but the team as a whole is a work in progress. They are close to the Jets defensively, except that their defense allows 67.3%. I suspect the coaching staff will have the Jets playing hard, but there will be a slight drop in motivation. Miami is on a roll hosting the Jets after being dismal for over two decades. The one situation that works here does not affect the spread, but instead suggests a high scoring game.
Decisions: None so far. The line has dropped to Miami -1, and I will re-study the game on Friday and Saturday.
Personal Seasonal Performance:
FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE:
Cleveland at Pittsburgh:
Situation: Cleveland is out of the playoff picture. Pittsburgh was left for dead a few weeks ago but now gets in the playoffs if they win this game, and both Miami and New England lose their games. The big question for Pitt fans will be how much effort will Buffalo make vs. New England if KC wins on Saturday, not only if they cancel the Cincy game, but also with their mindset, having watched their teammate in a horrible situation this past Monday.
Metrics: Pitt has won the last eight hosting the Browns (5-3 ATS). They both have the same 33-37 sack ratio and solid 61+% pass defenses. Cleveland runs better but has trouble stopping the run. Pitt is 7-2 straight-up when T.J. Watt starts, so perhaps they’ve been underrated this season. They also have a 22-10 ATS last home game record. These games tend to be low scoring.
Decisions: I lean to the Steelers covering the 2.5/3 spread. I have a few more data points to check on before acting.
Personal Seasonal Performance:
FYI: For prop players, RB Chubb (Cleveland) has 12 rushing TD’s, one off the lead. RB Harris (Pitt) needs 46 yards to reach 1,000. That being said, teams with playoff aspirations won’t be that interested in padding a player’s stats.
FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE:
Baltimore at Cincinnati:
Situation: Under ideal conditions, had Cincy lost last Monday this would be the Sunday Night regular season finale, with the winner earning the Divisional crown and a home game in the wildcard round. With prayers and hopes that Damar Hamlin gets great health news this week, perhaps the game is rescheduled. If not, Cincy wins the Division, but can not end up the #1 seed. This could impact who plays and for how long for both teams.
Metrics: Baltimore has trouble protecting leads, and this next statement is simply fact. Without Lamar Jackson and his superior escape ability and run skill set, John Harbaugh has reverted back to his usual terrible end of half and game tendencies. With better coaching, this team, with years of great player drafts should be challenging for the #1 seed. Meanwhile, Cincy’s OL has quietly improved its pass protection. In games 1-8, the rebuilt OL had chemistry issues which were understandable, and allowed 30 sacks. They have allowed 12 in the last seven games, never more than two in any game. Cincy also boasts the better pass D, and let’s face it, the far better QB and WR set.
Decisions: Cincy was on the field on MNF and they witnessed first-hand the tragedy which unfolded. What will their mindset be here and will it change if they are declared the Divisional winner? What might have been a play on Cincy may just be a pass. As an aside, I don’t expect Lamar Jackson to play, but keep an eye on this. The same stuff happened in the last month of the 2021 season and he ended up missing five or six games. Availability is everything in the NFL, and that’s a concern with him.
Personal Seasonal Performance:
FYI: For prop players, TE Hurst has milestones that could trigger $250K and 125K bonuses, while backup RB Perrine is 124 rushing yards away from a $100K bonus.
FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE:
Houston at Indy:
Situation: Hopeless. Houston has Lovie Smith as their Head Coach. Indy has Jeff Saturday. What could go wrong?
Metrics: Indy has allowed 58 sacks, 31st in the NFL. The pass D is at 68.6%. Houston has a poor run D, and has allowed 24 rushing TD’s. The good news? The season ends on Sunday.
Decisions: Do you have to ask? I’m done discussing this game (insert smile here).
Personal Seasonal Performance:
FYI: For prop players, RB Pierce has 939 yards. My best guess is Houston will try to get him to 1,000. Keep that in mind. WR Pittman has 96 catches and 896 yards. If this gets close, might he be pushed to get to 1,000 (alternate line over 100 here?).
FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE:
LA Chargers at Denver:
Situation: I’m thrilled LA finally is in the playoffs, as this has been a playoff-worthy team for a decade, with special team play continually holding them back. At 1st glance, it “shouldn’t” matter what seeding they get, as they will be on the road, but the 5th seed plays the winner of the Tennessee-Jacksonville game, while the 6th seed has to go to KC, Buffalo, or Cincy. Right now, LA is the 5th seed. As for Denver, everything went wrong. Good luck to the next coach (no #1 or #2 picks in the 2023 draft).
Metrics: Denver has allowed a league worst 61 sacks. LA has the better pass D but the league’s worst yards-per-carry run D. Denver has won outright recently as a home dog in this series. How cold will it be for this game?
Decisions: It looks like I jumped the gun a bit, as I thought LA was locked into a specific seeding. I took +3 with Denver, at +105, and think Denver can win the game, which might not be a great price if LA has to win to reach the #5 seed. The Baltimore game is in the early slate on Sunday. That is important. If they lose, LA is the #5 seed and can sit players. If Baltimore wins, my Denver +3 play may not seem solid, but I’ll have to live with that. If Baltimore loses, I’ll very likely try to add pre-game 3rd and 4th quarter plays on Denver. It’s a strategy that works almost every final NFL week, although it was 50% a year ago. My advice: Be creative in week 18 wagering, and study the circumstances carefully (rested starters, game value, etc).
Personal Seasonal Performance:
FYI: For prop players, several LA players have some incentives they can reach. RB Ekeler needs two catches for a $100K bonus, and it should be noted he’s also tied for the lead with 13 rushing TD’s. WR Carter could see increased action if the starters rest. He’s 55 yards away from a $250K bonus. TE Everett is a tricky handicap. He needs five catches to get an extra $250K. Check his usage out.
FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE:
Dallas at Washington:
Situation: This game will be played at the same time as the Philly-NYG game. A Dallas win and a Philly loss gives the Cowboys the NFC EAST TITLE, and yes, a chance at the #1 seed if SF loses to Arizona. A win by SF means that Dallas tops out at the #2 seed, but that would give them two or more home playoff opportunities. Any other combination puts them as the 5th seed, heading to Tampa. Washington’s season ended last week. They went 0-3 down the stretch and had trouble scoring points.
Metrics: Dallas has a +11 turnover ratio. Washington’s ratio is -6, fueled by erratic QB play and just eight defensive interceptions. Dallas has 51 defensive sacks, but just six in their last five games. They had five when hosting Washington way back, and the Commanders have allowed 45. Dallas last played on Thursday, 12/29, so they have a rest differential edge. With all that being said, I was surprised the line was 4 or 4.5 at most places, not changing to the current -5.5 until Tuesday morning. I have no situations supporting either team, but it should be noted that Washington is lukewarm as a home dog in the series.
Decisions: None at this time. I should have speculated, taking -4, but I just don’t like either side.
Personal Seasonal Performance:
WEDNESDAY UPDATE: As I submit this to be read by others, the line on this game is now Dallas -7.5. Now I really wish I had speculated at -4, as the “correct line” would have been -7. I’m very good at speculation, but I do miss a few now and then. Earlier news said QB Sam Howell might see some action. As I finish this report, he may now be the starter for this game.
FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE:
NYG at Philly:
Situation: The NYG are locked into the #6 seed and have nothing to play for. Tom Coughlin played to win in that same situation over a decade ago and gave Tom Brady and undefeated New England all they could handle in a close loss. They turned the tables of course in that famous Super Bowl. This is different, as it is a Divisional game and the NYG may not want to show everything they have. Philly’s two losses without QB Hurts have them now needing to put forth a normal effort in this game to secure the #1 seed. If they do lose, they can still win the East and the #1 with losses by Dallas and San Fran.
Metrics: GM Howie Roseman’s best trait is building roster depth like no one else. The amount of pass rushers on this team is scary, and they lead the NFL with 68 sacks, a full 16 sacks ahead of the #2 team. They sacked Daniel Jones seven times in a comfortable 48-22 road victory on 12/11. The rest of the stat sheet shows little value, although the NYG are bottom three in rush yards allowed per carry. Series history is mixed, but Philly is 14-19 vs. the spread as a home favorite overall (1-3 last four).
Decisions: The line is quite high (14.5/14). Does that mean Hurts will play? Maybe it means the NYG will rest starters at some point during the game. Regardless, Philly has to play a better overall defensive game and stop the sudden turnover regression. I’m not involved thus far and likely won’t be.
Personal Seasonal Performance:
FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE:
Minnesota at Chicago:
Situation: Minny is in, and will be either the #2 or #3 seed. All four of their losses have been by double digits, and they currently have a negative point ratio. Chicago started 2-1, exactly as predicted. They are now 3-13 (see below).
Metrics: Minny started 2022 with a modest 26.5 Power Number (roughly 15th), and reached a high of 29.5 (8th) after nine games. Seven games later, they are at 23.5, likely the biggest drop over that time span. They own a 37-47 sack ratio, a 67% pass D, and a below par 4.5 run D per carry. Chicago QB Fields is having a landmark year running the ball, but he clearly does not see the field well on pass downs, as he can’t get off his initial read. The staff has him passing about 20 times per game, a sure sign that he’s more disruptive in the run game. I think there’s room for growth, but that’s for another discussion. Throwing 17 TD passes is actually a good sign (splash plays work in this offense), but his rate of interceptions is high. Chicago drafted four not draft worthy OL (according to my ratings) in 2022. Let’s hope some of them develop, as the Bears have allowed 57 sacks, a large number considering the amount of pass attempts. Many may not know this, but their 20 defensive sacks rank dead last in the NFL. Chicago is 0-2-1 vs. the spread in the last five years as a home dog in this series, but at the current number (6), Minny qualifies in a trio of negative spread indicators (team, general, and last game situations).
Decisions: There’s some chatter that Fields may not play in this game, or may be subbed out. The backups are not very good, but Minny is very likely to be playing 2nd stringers by halftime. I’ll be looking at Chicago for 3rd and 4th quarter plays, while keeping an eye on all the news. I’ll pivot to considering under the total plays in the 2nd half if Chicago subs freely.
Personal Seasonal Performance:
FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE:
Detroit at Green Bay (Sunday Night):
Situation: Flexed to Sunday Night, this could be a meaningful game for both teams. The prize is the 7th seed, and no higher. The Lions make the playoffs if they win and Seattle loses when hosting the LA Rams. GB’s fate is simple. If they win, they are in. If they lose, they are out. What happens if this game ends in a tie? In that case, the Lions are in, provided that Seattle lost.
Metrics: There’s no difference in the stat sheet. Neither team defends the run well. Like last week (thanks), dome teams that come to GB in December/January are terrible straight-up and vs. the spread. GB has played very well as a host in this series.
Decisions: Based solely on Power Numbers, this line would be 2 or 2.5 in the afternoon, and 2.5 or 3 in the evening. The 4.5 spread is a result of a) this being in December, and b) oddsmakers likely anticipating a Seattle win, therefore eliminating Detroit, which would see a spike in public action on the Packers. I have a lean with GB, but prefer to lay fewer points, just like last week. My plan changes if Seattle wins, as then I like the OVERS, anticipating the Lions throw caution to the wind, and use lots of trickery that may or may not work, creating good field position either way. Regardless, the NFL should never have flexed this game, as it negatively impacts both Seattle and the Lions. This is all about ratings, and that’s a Rodgers thing.
Personal Seasonal Performance:
FYI: For prop players, I’ve heard that GB’s Preston Smith gets a million dollar bonus if he reaches ten sacks, He currently has 8.5, but remember, this is a crucial game, and player milestones are usually not the main focus. For the Lions, WR Raymond is due for a $250K bonus if he catches five passes, and a $150K bonus with 36 more punt return yards.
FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE:
Tampa at Atlanta:
Situation: Tampa clinched the NFC South last week, thereby locking out every other Divisional rival from the playoffs. They are firmly locked into the 4th seed, and will host Dallas (likely) or Philly.
Metrics: You NEVER want to let Tom Brady get in rhythm. In four of the last seven games, he looked like a mediocre QB for 55 minutes, and the greatest athlete of all time in the remaining five minutes. It seems strange that on a team with veteran, highly capable WR’s Evans and Godwin, Tampa would struggle to achieve consistency. While Brady still avoids sacks (OL #1 in fewest sacks allowed), the OL is a shell of itself from previous years, and the run game is dead last in many categories. Here’s a surprise to absolutely no one. Atlanta is 31st. in defensive sacks (21). They had 18 a year ago, which was last by a full eleven sacks. Atlanta is a solid run team, while Tampa finally regressed from its top tier rush defense this year, allowing 4.4 per carry. Tom Brady has been adamant that he wants to play in this game, but how long will the starters go?
Decisions: A win last week likely has a positive effect on Atlanta’s motivation here, but that doesn’t mean they can stop Brady and the starters from scoring points. I’m looking at making pre-game plays on Atlanta in the 3rd and 4th quarters.
Personal Seasonal Performance:
FYI: For prop players, keep an eye on RB Allgeier. He has 900 rushing yards. Could he be force fed to 1,000?
FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE:
Carolina at New Orleans:
Situation: Carolina’s loss to Tampa last week ended their surprise playoff push. The Saints have two straight road wins, but coaching killed them in BOTH losses to Tampa this year. Win one of those, and the Saints are playing for the AFC South title. Despite what should be a letdown, I think the Panthers play hard for their interim coach in this spot, and I also believe that thanks to the recent win streak, New Orleans will do the same.
Metrics: Recent #’s suggest the Saints have ramped up their pass rush, and now they total 46 on the season. Darnold has been sacked eight times in his four game “audition”. The Panthers have by far the worst pass D between the two. When DB Lattimore is healthy, New Orleans has a top five pass defense. The biggest issue has been turnovers, as New Orleans is 31st in the NFL with a -12 ratio. Amazingly, they have just five defensive interceptions. Series history is mixed, and I have no game or team situations to offer here.
Decisions: I NEVER like taking the favorite in any New Orleans game. As a 70-30 underdog player in general, that works especially well here, as historically, playing the dog in their games yields a blind 60% win rate. They are 2-4 vs. the number as a favorite in 2022. I would weakly lean Carolina in this one, but I have no other data to back this up.
Personal Seasonal Performance:
FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE:
Arizona at San Francisco:
Situation: Arizona is one game away from firing their Head Coach. SF has had a highly interesting season. Now on their 3rd starting QB, SF is back in Super Bowl conversations. A win here, coupled with a Philly loss would give them the #1 seed and a playoff bye. They could still fall to the #3 seed with a loss, coupled with a Minnesota win over Chicago.
Metrics: Arizona’s sack ratio is 32-43, while SF’s ratio is 41-27. SF had a 3-0 sack advantage in their 38-10 win at Arizona on 11/21. Amazingly, rookie QB Brock Purdy has been sacked just four times in four starts. No one knows who Arizona will start at QB this week, but if it’s Colt McCoy, expect him to be sack-prone. While SF’s over 65% pass D is a lingering worry come playoff time, Arizona’s 69.6% pass D figure is now dead last in the NFL. SF is also top two at stopping the run. For what it’s worth, Arizona has played fairly well at SF’s site. This game is being played at the same time as the Philly game, and after the Minny-Chicago game. That could impact player usage and motivation, so watch what happens in these other games. Via Power Numbers, the line is in the right range, but measuring SF’s motivation is a minute by minute in-game exercise.
Decisions: This looks like a great game to ignore. Arizona has packed its bags, and SF’s full game motivation will be tied to what happens in the Philly game.
Personal Seasonal Performance:
FYI: For prop players, WR Aiyuk has 956 yards, but it’s likely his prop set will not be as low as 44 yards, so I don’t think that is going to be helpful. Edge rusher Bosa leads the NFL in sacks. SF has something to play for, so at least he’ll be trying.
WEDNESDAY UPDATE: David Blough has been announced as the starter for Arizona. WR Hopkins is doubtful to play.
FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE:
LA Rams at Seattle:
Situation: LA’s season went south in a hurry, which was not unexpected (noted in my personal season performance section, which is not included in this submission). Seattle was better than most people expected (also see below), and can get into the playoffs with the #7 seed. Unfortunately, the NFL disadvantaged them by scheduling Detroit at Green Bay as the night game. Sure, Detroit will still try, but teams (and coaches) have different anxiety levels when games are held simultaneously. Seattle is in with a win and a Green Bay loss to the Lions, but shame on you, NFL.
Metrics: LA was essentially a 9-8 team a year ago, renting players four times during the season. They were due for regression, and it clearly showed up in 2022 with a depleted OL, below par run game and substandard pass D. LA has long devalued the draft, so when injuries hit, the team was left with far less talented replacements. Relevant stats include 54 sacks allowed and a near 68% pass D figure. Obviously, QB play suffered with and without Stafford, and LA lost elite WR Kupp and their #2 target. Seattle’s stat sheet is average, but most people would have thought preseason that it would be far worse. The sack ratio is just 40-43, and sacks allowed have been ramping up. They can run the ball, but LA’s best trait is an above average run D. Seattle is ineffective stopping the run, and LA’s Cam Akers is on a roll. No one could have projected Geno Smith’s rebound season, but he has tapered off since that red hot start, turning the ball over more times. There are no team specific or series specific situations for this game, but Seattle is in a must win situation vs. a team out of the playoffs and with a sample size of 200+, the team out of the playoffs covers 58% of the time.
Decisions: It’s probably fashionable for teaser players to take Seattle in this spot, and while it makes ‘some” sense, teases are exactly that, TEASES. I’ve never been big on teases (personal preference), but am especially thrilled and proud to have played just two this year (2-0) and none in the last ten weeks. As an aside, manipulating odds and using ML parlays has been a new arsenal in my tool box, added after extensive networking and brainstorming, and used based on sound wagering principles. My advice: Ask questions, and do NOT jump into this methodology without a sound game plan. As expected, the line has been set a bit high, as the public should be more interested in laying the points. I like Seattle a bit, but highly respect the situation listed above and would lean LA at +7 or more. Remember, teams with an average defensive pedigree like Seattle’s are always vulnerable to late scores (no shutdown capabilities). The big question is this: Can LA do more than just run the ball?
Personal Seasonal Performance:
FYI: For prop players, RB Walker has 936 yards. Yes, Seattle is in the playoff hunt, but I do expect him to reach 1,000. Unfortunately, I don’t think we’ll see a posted rush number as low was 65.
FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE:
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