By Ron Marmalefsky (@ronacesports)
OPENING STATEMENT: Thus far I’ve been very pleased with the results of the early bowl games, but also very mindful of all the late breaking news that is a part of the bowl landscape in this new era of player transfer and bowl opt-outs. My plays have been smaller than usual, and often tied to late information. The write-up below is from a game that I have existing bets on, but again, I’ll be watching for late news to determine if adjustments need to be made.
Alamo Bowl – 12/29: Washington-Texas:
Washington was the Alamo’s 1st choice because they won tight, exciting games over OSU and Oregon. The culture change in Seattle was immediate, and quite rewarding. Steve Sarkisian has strong and weak points in my eyes. No one can question his offensive acumen, and Texas rode that to eight wins and this prestigious bowl berth. This should be a fun one to write about.
Washington notes: The new offense averaged more than 40 points per game behind transfer QB Penix, who was outstanding. Washington passed far more than they ran, but the per carry average was stout, at 4.95 (corrected for sacks and kneel downs). Another transfer, RB Taua, led the way. There’s quite a variety of pass-catching options. The starting TE may not play (concussion), but the backup shows some promise. The defense allowed 26 per game, and 32 per game to (just) four bowl teams on their schedule. The 3.9 per carry run D was better than expected. The 62.5% pass D was as I expected, but allowing 25 pass TD’s seems a bit too much. Overall, the 3rd down offensive success rate is quite impressive, at over 57%, but the 45% allowed on 3rd down to opponents was not. Kicking was solid at 17-20. The sack ratio was a highly impressive 35-7.
Texas notes: Texas should have defeated Alabama, but let that one slip away (20-19). The bounce back vs. a solid UTSA squad was impressive in my eyes. Another loss (overtime, 37-34) to Texas Tech, showed more late game coaching vulnerability, as Tech had a 2% win shot at the end of regulation. The remaining two losses were 41-34 at OK St and 17-10 hosting TCU. Texas played nine bowl teams, allowing just 22.5 points per game. Defensively, their 3.55 run D was much better than I anticipated. What matters most here is their pass D, which I projected to be 63%. Texas ended 2022 at 63.5%. Back to the offense. Young QB Ewers had his ups and downs, and remains a work in progress. The good news is that he’s faced tougher defenses than what Washington has. The bad news is that despite the Texas OL allowing just 17 sacks, I think this is a spot where the Washington pass rush could do some damage. Texas has a pair of elite RB’s, and they ran for over 2,100 yards, 23 rushing TD’s, and over six yards per carry. That’s nice, but both are skipping this game! That might leave some promising, but raw newcomers to carry the load. RB Brooks could be the 1st option, and he ran 11-108 vs. Kansas, who allowed 4.85 per carry in 2022. I think Ewers will want to pass more here. His top two targets are exciting, dynamic players, but there is a rumor that one of them might skip this game. This is obviously a must watch. I like their TE (Sanders) and believe he will have a solid game. One solid LB will also miss the game. I also like their return game defense. The PK was 19-24. The sack ratio was 27-17.
Keys to the game: Washington needs to sack QB Ewers. If not, I think that even though I project 20-35 (under 60%) accuracy, big plays will happen. I like their 3rd down offensive success rate, but not the defensive stop rate, which must be lowered. I’m worried overall about their defense, as Sarkisian is likely to devise a solid offensive game plan. Texas must hope that the very raw RB’s do enough to take some pressure off having to pass more often that they might want to. They were more run centric than people might think in 2022, but that likely changes with the top RB’s out of this bowl game. Playing in San Antonio is a perk, although I believe Washington fans will travel for this opportunity to be in San Antonio as well as to see a game vs. a well-regarded Power Five opponent (check ticket sales).
The decision: At full strength I would not be going against Texas, who would fall into two dominant rush categories. With the RB room completely different I can’t use any rush data at all, negating that edge. At this stage in his career QB Penix “should” outperform Ewers, especially if the Washington pass rush can take advantage of what I think will be more opportunities with better down and distance thanks to less impactful running. The one concern I have is bowl game opponents faced. Washington faced only four, although UCLA, OSU and Oregon are top 15-20 teams. Texas faced nine, although the overall point ratio suggests that games were close. In the end, I put a 1*** on Washington at +5 once I saw the line trending down (was as high as +6). I put in an earlier play at over 64.5, as once again we have two offensive-minded coaches playing in dome conditions in a bowl game where neither team should feel the need to play things safe. As of this writing I have this as a three-point game in either direction, with the points flowing. I would still endorse Washington at +4, as well as an over play, although I might reduce the size of the play on the total and cap any play at a maximum point total of 67.
Time permitting, I will try to post another bowl preview for a game played either December 31st or January 2nd.
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