By Ron Marmalefsky (@ronacesports)
OPENING STATEMENT: In this week’s weekly digest, I share some of my thoughts about games being played on Friday, November 25th. I picked out seven games that intrigue me. The games are in order of when they will be played.
BAYLOR AT TEXAS:
What’s at stake: Texas can reach the Big 12 title game (vs. TCU) with a win and a Saturday loss by Kansas State. Baylor poured their heart out vs. TCU and lost 29-28 with TCU kicking the game winning field goal as time expired.
Game Notes: Baylor is “just” 6-5, but remember, they lost several key players to the NFL draft, and this year was always going to be a bridge to better things. My 2022 stat projections have been met, and in some cases, exceeded. Baylor has been competitive in all games except vs. Kansas St, and I feel honored to have backed them five times (fading them just once), and been right all five times. When the metric analysis has favored the Bears, they have delivered. They are well coached. Texas has one of the scariest offenses in all of the NCAA. Steve Sarkisian can scheme with the best of them, and it shows in their point totals. Unfortunately, he’s not a great all-around Head Coach, at least in my eyes. They have one of the top RB’s in the nation, and two quality WR’s. Much heralded QB Quinn Ewers has completed just 55.4% of his passes, and while showing flashes worthy of his lofty rating, he’s also very much a work in progress. Defensively, Texas has exceeded my expectations stopping the run but has occasionally run into trouble via the pass (64.6%). I suspected this past August that we would see up and down performances from this team, and was rightfully hesitant in relying on rush data as one way to handicap this team.
Current Opinion: We know about motivation from the Texas side, but Baylor players were understandably numb after losing the way they did last week vs. TCU. Baylor beat Texas a year ago and Texas will certainly not take this team lightly. I see reasons why either team could cover and/or end up victorious, so my approach will be turkey soup and a nice beverage.
TULANE AT CINCINNATI:
What’s at stake: Everything! The winner hosts the AAC title game and should be in the running for the Group of Six bowl berth. The loser may remain in the playoff running, but neither team wants to be put in that position.
Game Notes: Tulane’s two losses are home to So. Miss and home to UCF, a game in which they allowed 53-343 on the ground. My projected stats are nearly exact in all categories. The backfield is solid. Cincy “knows” how to win, and that is a trait that in my opinion is developed over time. They could have lost to USF and East Carolina, but these teams have NOT learned how to win. I gave an example on a Tuesday podcast appearance as to how that learning process is cultivated (follow me on twitter and you can find my tweets leading you to the latest podcast). Despite losing multiple DB’s to the NFL, Cincy continues to be tough to pass on. Like with Tulane, my seasonal projections are nearly on point. QB Bryant was hurt last week vs. Temple. The backup was more than efficient in his absence, but did not throw a TD pass. He is clearly more of a rush threat. Here’s one gigantic reason why Cincy is winning some close games. The kicking game is markedly better. After going 9-19 in 2021, my 2022 watch list included transfer PK Coe. He started slow, but has hit 14 in a row and has flipped the narrative.
Current Opinion: The data is flat on the number, so no edge here. There are two trains of thought, and both involve Tulane. If you look at performance vs. common opponents, Tulane has the CLEAR edge. But, can the Green Wave win a close game vs. a team that won’t panic in close game situations, and hasn’t lost a home game since 2017. Strong lean and maybe a play on Tulane, as I feel they are the better team on the field, but sealing the deal is a concern if this game comes down to the wire.
ARKANSAS AT MISSOURI:
What’s at stake: Arkansas is a different team with K.J. Jefferson back at QB, but Missouri has more to play for, as they need a win to reach bowl eligibility.
Game Notes: Two weeks ago, I wrote about Arkansas, and took the points vs. LSU. Jefferson missed that game, yet Arkansas lost only by a field goal. RB Sanders averages over six yards per carry, and he also benefits by having the threat of Jefferson as a runner, as evidenced by his 32-132 stat line in the games Jefferson missed. One area of deep concern is the run defense, which was gashed by Mississippi a week ago, and has performed below expectations even before that. They may catch a break in this spot, as Missouri has an average rush attack. What I like about the Tigers is how competitive they have been, especially defensively. Tennessee and Kansas State had their way with this defense, but Missouri led Georgia before losing just 26-22, and gave up only 38 regulation points combined in close losses at Auburn (check the crazy notes on that game) and vs. Kentucky. Missouri has won the last four in this series as a host, two of them as an underdog.
Current Opinion: I have a higher opinion on Jefferson than most, projecting him as a viable NFL prospect, at least as of this writing. I still lean Missouri, not as much due to their bowl motivation, but more due to the fact that Arkansas has played two tough SEC opponents of late, and Missouri had it easier with a host of New Mexico State last week.
NORTH CAROLINA STATE AT NORTH CAROLINA:
What’s at stake: Unfortunately, nothing. NC St didn’t meet seasonal expectations, which is often the case for teams not used to the rarified air of top ten status. N Car clinched their side of the ACC a week ago, and it showed in a late loss hosting GT.
Game Notes: QB play has been down ever since their lead guy was lost for the season. Even with him, their scoring average in conference play is just 18+ points per game. What they excel at is forcing interceptions, and kicking (22-23). New Tar Heel QB Maye had a down game last week, but for the season he has been exceptional, and their ACC offensive performance includes scoring at 33 points per game. Their issue has been stopping opponents from scoring. To their credit, N Car has allowed “just” 25 points per game in ACC play, a clear improvement over past seasons and from September of this season. Still, the stat sheet shows them at 4.8 per carry allowed, and 63.6% allowed through the air.
Current Opinion: Past history tells us that this series has produced some wild and unbelievable finishes, with no lead ever safe. Last year’s game was the latest example, with NC St overcoming a 30-21 deficit by scoring twice in the last two minutes. Data supports N Car obtaining revenge, but the favorite has not always been reliable in this wacky series. I lean with the Tar Heels.
NEBRASKA AT IOWA:
What’s at stake: Nebraska hit rock bottom earlier this season, and has been mirrored in mediocrity for way too long now. The interim coaching staff are basically polishing their resumes at the current time. As for Iowa, who would have thought that this dinosaur of an offense would be the team to beat in the Big Ten West? A win puts them in the title game.
Game Notes: QB injury issues have hurt Nebraska, but Thompson is back at QB and is the most accurate of the bunch, although his interception rate is a concern vs. one of the best takeaway teams over the past decade in Iowa. RB Grant was at one point close to 5.0 per carry, but great defensive teams Michigan and Wisconsin held him to a combined 27-51 the past two weeks. Minnesota ran wild on Iowa’s defense but that defense is still just at 3.45 allowed per carry. I expected better success vs. the run, but Nebraska’s 5.15 per carry run D shows that no progress has been made. Nebraska is on a five-game losing streak, and has been outscored 138-76 in this span of games. Conversely, Iowa is on a four-game win streak, outscoring opponents 94-36. Iowa has not allowed more than 13 points to any Big Ten team save for Michigan (27) and Ohio State (54, with a -4 turnover ratio). In the win streak, Iowa’s QB “improved”, going 63-100, with a 3-0 ratio. This offense still doesn’t score up to their potential, hurt a bit with their lower-than-expected rushing attack. Maybe hosting this team is the answer.
Current Opinion: Under “normal” conditions, my Power Numbers suggest a line of -14.5. As I’ve discussed, we typically do not get “true” lines for rivalry games. Iowa is on a roll in this series straight-up, but covering the spread has been an issue. I have a strong lean toward Nebraska, given the fact that Iowa is predictable offensively, but also noting that Iowa has the clear kicking edge and expected turnover edge. I see a 23-13 type of score, and will be curious to see what the closing line is (currently 11).
UCLA AT CALIFORNIA:
What’s at stake: UCLA turnovers did them in hosting USC, and now this is a letdown spot. Cal’s season ends with this game, but for reasons noted below, they will at least be focused in their season-ending game.
Game Notes: Chip Kelly finally has the offense where he wants it to be, and 2022 showed that with the right QB and RB, the scheme is fantastic. 28 points is their WORST outing, and that 6.4 yards-per-carry is outstanding. The run D might look bad to some, but at 4.35 allowed per carry, it’s actually slightly better than my 4.45 seasonal projection. The pass D% has disappointed, and the kicking game is only slightly above average. Cal found a RB in Ott, but his stats are inflated by his amazing performance vs. Arizona. His numbers are 121-464, and just 3.8 per carry in the other nine “lined” games. QB Plummer has an average stat line, but is somewhat interception prone. If for some reason he doesn’t throw a pick here, then Cal can certainly contend with the Bruins. Similar to UCLA, Cal’s pass D has regressed, and has allowed 60% or greater in each of their last ten games! The good news is that Cal comes off a win vs. Stanford, so the attitude is good.
Current Opinion: I have conflicting on-field situations for this game. The data favors UCLA in a 55% category with a decent sample size, but UCLA’s situational metrics show a 58% advantage to Cal, with a slightly larger sample size. Cal has been decent as a home dog in the series, but I dismiss this as a true handicapping factor here due to a lack of recency. Instead, let’s look at the larger picture. This could be the last home game vs. UCLA should the Bruins (as expected) join the Big Ten. I’m unclear as to what clout, if any, the UC Regents have in blocking the move, but regardless, the Cal staff and fan base are livid about the situation. If motivation matters, then Cal has a huge edge here, both with UCLA’s loss to USC, ending their Rose Bowl hopes, plus this being Cal’s last hurrah for 2022. Texas and Oklahoma have been less than spectacular when facing their perceived rivals in the Big 12 following their announced jump to the SEC. This is Cal’s bowl game, and I side with them, hoping Plummer is careful with the football, and that Ott has a better than average game vs. the Bruins mediocre defense.
FLORIDA AT FLORIDA STATE:
What’s at stake: Bragging rights in the state of Florida. FSU badly wants to stop the series losing streak.
Game Notes: Florida has a dynamic, but erratic QB and two very good RB’s. The 6.05 yards-per-carry (adjusted for sacks and kneel downs using my formula) has exceeded expectations. The year one staff has seen some progress, but suffered a setback last week at Vandy. Early in the season FSU had trouble closing out games, but finally this team has met expectations, returning to a bowl game. Their 5.75 yards-per-carry also exceeds expectations. Defensively, FSU has the better stat sheet.
Current Opinion: As noted in previous articles, my handicapping method includes Power Ratings, on-field metrics based on matchups, and situational factors. Power Ratings can be erratic when used on their own in late game/rivalry game situations. As I discussed on two podcasts this week, game odds are often lower than what the raw numbers suggest in rivalry situations. The “true” line on this game should be FSU -12, but FSU would be more than happy to win by any margin in this series. This should be an entertaining game to watch between two motivated teams, but I have no lean on the oucome.
NEXT WEEK: Happy Thanksgiving: Next week brings the Conference Title games, and the end of the regular season. I will be back to write about it right here, so stay tuned.
Visit me on twitter @ronacesports where I provide thoughts about all things football, and offer up additional handicapping analysis in podcast form as well.
