By Ron Marmalefsky (@ronacesports)
OPENING STATEMENT: Handicapping the bowl season is often quite exciting, but at the same time, quite nerve-racking. While Power Ratings and Matchup Metrics tend to work quite well in bowl games, there are several additional factors that must be carefully analyzed. Who’s playing and who is not, as the transfer portal has doubled from last year, and bowl opt-outs more than tripled, with more to come. Coaches have been fired and/or been hired away from bowl teams. What is the make-up of the entire staff that’s left to coach in the game? Some teams are thrilled to play in a bowl, while others could care less, either because they did not meet expectations this year and are playing in a “minor” bowl game, or maybe because the opponent is not enough of an enticement. Fan support has to be vetted out. Some fans will travel, but others will stay home.
Last week I put two bowl games in this column. In both games, late information changed the narrative. In the Cure Bowl, the line flipped from Troy -2 all the way to UTSA moving to -3. That negated UTSA’s value, and put Troy in a strong rush category. I doubled back, with a 2X play on Troy +3, almost getting the perfect result (UTSA had the ball at the three, down 18-12. This wasn’t the only bowl game where a late scratch or a late line move had an impact on handicapping the game. In my 2nd write-up, QB Hall did not play. BYU still covered the spread, but I passed on the game. The rational for the under play was sound and that part of the equation was a winner.
Below are two more of my early writeups. Let me repeat what I said in this space a week ago: There may be still some unfinished business for each bowl game. Who lines up at RB in the 1st write-up? Does RB Allen play for Wisconsin in the 2nd write-up? Will there be any other vital news stories prior to kick off? This is my method of determining how to approach the games. I hope it triggers the thought process for everyone reading this, no matter what side you end up liking.
Camellia Bowl – 12/27: Georgia Southern vs. Buffalo:
It’s never been easy changing a rush-oriented team into a pass type, but the transfer portal has made things a bit easier. Still, Clay Helton deserves enormous credit for getting Georgia Southern off the ground right away. Yes, they slumped a bit later on, but 6-6 wasn’t bad. Buffalo was surprised over a year ago when their coach left in the Spring for Kansas. Last year was predictably bad, but getting to 6-6 now was a decent accomplishment. The good news is that once again, we have a bowl game where both teams are happy. The bad news is that these teams are 6-6, and their Power Numbers are horrible.
Georgia Southern (GS) notes: The point ratios of these teams are similar in that they can score, but they also give up points. Offensively, GS ran 4.8 per carry (uncorrected for sacks). The two RB’s are both capable of putting up #’s in this game, but both of them missed the end of the season. The #3 guy ran 14-62 in the finale vs. App St, which isn’t bad, as that team plays better vs. the run as compared to Buffalo. In an unusual bowl twist, QB Vantrease spent his 1st five years at Buffalo! He’s plenty experienced, but has a high rate of interceptions. I project 25-44 in this spot. Some WR’s are missing, but the top two guys will be force fed the ball and figure to catch between 12-14 passes. The problem for GS has been with the defense, which allows 5.75-240 per game on the ground and 59% through the air. This should be interesting, as Buffalo has a hard time running the ball. In other news, the return defense is not very good, kicking was great at 16-18, and the sack ratio was 18-7. Allowing just seven sacks is fantastic for this type of offense, but they also might give Buffalo plenty of time to throw.
Buffalo notes: Both teams held up fairly well vs. bowl types. Like GS, Buffalo’s rush ratio was poor, at 3.45-5.05. Depending on who suits up at RB for GS, they have the slight edge in the run game. Interestingly enough, Buffalo also had a couple of RB’s miss time late in the year. I’m projecting QB Snyder to go 20-33, for 217 yards. The best part of their defense is vs. the pass, but GS will be a big test. Like GS, Buffalo’s return defense is not very good. We may just see a special team breakdown in this game. The biggest edge by far in this game is with time of possession. Buffalo’s regular season margin was +6:30, while GS had a negative 3:50 margin. If Buffalo can amp up the run game, that could lead to fatigue. If not, the stat is less meaningful. Like GS, Buffalo’s PK was stout, at 21-25. Their sack ratio was 24-30. 30 sacks allowed is a bit high, but GS doesn’t sack much.
Keys to the game: What’s the RB news for both teams, with multiple guys missing the end of the season? How does the QB dynamic play out with a guy going against his old team, one he spent five years with? Will a special team play be the difference (long PR or KR)? Can GS stop Buffalo’s low level ground attack?
The decision: I don’t really see a playable edge straight-up. GS has the rush data if the RB room is full, but the category is not playable. It’s easier to like a dog in matchups such as this one, and that’s my lean. The total opened at 63.5 which was playable. The reasons behind endorsing an over play (now 67) include a) Two QB’s with decent accuracy who may have ample time to throw in the pocket. b) Two run defenses that haven’t really stopped anyone this year. c) Two stout kickers. d) The possibility of a long PR or KR, given the soft return defenses of these teams. I’m looking forward to simulating the game.
Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Phoenix) – 12/27: Oklahoma St-Wisconsin:
Under normal circumstances, this game would fall into the must watch category. Instead, this game pits two teams who fell far short of 2022 expectations and do NOT want to be here. We might see basically a scrimmage and a peak into 2023 talent, but otherwise, be prepared to see a few punts and a few turnovers. How the top 15 have fallen.
OK St notes: Expected to challenge for the Big 12 title, OK St went just 7-5, and 4-5 in conference play. They were often competitive, taking TCU to overtime and beating Texas, but also lost 48-0 to K St, 45-16 to upstart Kansas, and 28-13 to an equally disappointing Oklahoma team. I’m not sure I’ve seen such an awful rush ratio from this team. They typically run about 4.5 per carry and allow no more than 4.2 per carry (2.95 in 2021). This year the #’s were 3.75-137 for the offense and 4.8-176 for the defense. The one area that was consistent was the 57.2% pass D, their 3rd in a row close or exact to this #. Now let’s talk opt-outs. QB Sanders is out. They may rotate QB’s behind him. Rangel went for 53.6%, but vs. weaker opponents. Gundy (coaches’ son) was at 48.7%, and had a high turnover rate in limited play. OK St allowed 26 sacks this year but that number could rise in this spot. The run game was already an issue before lead RB Richardson decided not to play. The next guys up had some moments of glory, and there may not be a real drop in production. The WR room is near intact, so the only issue is having the young QB’s make the connection. There are also opt-out on the defensive side of the ball, mostly up front. I think the pass D will hold up (see below). There could be a time of possession issue if the young D can’t overachieve. One area of strength is the return game, and the top guy is playing. Ok St as usual is good at kicking (21-22). The sack ratio is 24-26.
Wisconsin notes: Wisky fired their coach midseason in what seemed like a shocking move at the time. It still is. This game Jim Leonhard (coveted defensive coordinator) a chance to win the job, but his tenure was uneven, which was understandable. With Luke Fickell coming in, this will be his last game on the staff. Wisky was an extremely disappointing 6-6, and 4-5 in conference play. They had a 2021 rush ratio of 5.15-2.7. The #’s were worse this year, but still solid at 4.8-3.35. QB Mertz never progressed. The 22 points per game average in conference play is not good enough. In eight of the last nine seasons the Badgers allowed between 48% and 55.7% through the air. The 60.3% allowed this year is the highest I’ve charted in quite some time. Before going further, it’s time to discuss Wisky’s opt-outs, which are double that of OK St’s. Mertz is out. The options to replace him have completed a combined 6-11 passes. Given OK St’s pass D, this won’t be fun. RB Allen “appears” set to play. If so, that’s a perk, as he’s quite talented. If he changes his mind (which could happen), that leaves just one of their top three in play, and his stat sheet regressed badly this season. Like OK St, their WR room is mostly intact, but multiple TE’s, a Wisky strong point, are out. Defensively, they lose a key nose tackle and a CB. It’s a scrimmage, for sure. Wisconsin’s PK is 10-13. Last year’s sack ratio was 33-15. This year’s is 31-25. Like OK St, they will now be protecting for some raw QB’s.
Keys to the game: Wow, everything? The obvious ones are QB play and OL protection for both sides. For OK St, add in stopping the run, as Wisky “seems” like the clear rush pick. I “might” be a bit more worried that OK St will commit too many turnovers, but poor QB play for Wisky could change that. For the Badgers, it would greatly help if Allen plays, as this figures to be a run-centric game on both ends if at all possible. If he doesn’t play it certainly evens up the playing field and brings in a solid OK St stat, that being allowing just 27% on 3rd downs. With Wisky have more players out, the backups have to step up. Can OK St break off a big kick return? Can Wisky overcome losses at TE, one of their most reliable positions?
The decision: Gundy is a good coach, but motivating this group will be a challenge. Conversely, I expect Wisky to play hard one final time for Leonhard. Wisky is the rush pick for sure (due to the defensive numbers of each team), but of course it would be a clear and more quantifiable edge with Allen in the game. Wisky was 57-37 ATS in that role prior to going 2-4 this season. I’m going with the (hopefully) more motivated team with the rush data in place, knowing that there’s incredible volatility due to all QB’s, defensive opt-outs and other team depth issues. If turnovers are flat (predicting this is hard, but OK St may have more issues in this area) I think Allen and Wisky get the win. I certainly wish I had the 48+ opening line for the total, which is now 43.5. It moved quickly once the odds were released. The game line is -3.5, with some -3 with juice. I still might play the under, and will be playing YES for a special team TD (+225/230 at most places), and how about yes, that there will be a scoreless quarter of play (priced lower than usual but I still like it, ranging between +145/+160). Let’s for now call it Wisky, 20-13.
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