By Ron Marmalefsky (@ronacesports)
OPENING STATEMENT: In this week’s weekly digest, I go off the grid a bit by previewing the game between BYU and Boise. BYU’s season is falling apart, while a QB change has sparked Boise’s revival. I chose this game because it highlights all the various ways one can handicap a game, which I will more fully describe below.
BYU Preseason Prognosis: BYU outperformed my expectations in 2021 but there were reasons to believe the Cougars would regress this season. While still projected to run effectively, I downgraded BYU from 5.4 yards-per-carry to a 4.7 projection using my rush stat formula. I kept the pass D% high at 61.5%. BYU had but 20 sacks in 2021. That area concerned me again coming into this season. The schedule was clearly tougher for 2022, and more importantly, my analysis of the pacing of the schedule had me concerned. I rate their Head Coach as average (up from previous ratings), but there was enough player experience to still achieve 7-5.
Boise Preseason Prognosis: In 2021, Boise finished 7-5, their worst record since 1998! Was the new staff overmatched? The run offense was low at 3.6 per carry (using my formula) last year. I projected 4.3 for 2022 behind a projected very talented OL. The defense was decent in 2021, and I projected a bit better now, at 4.05 for the run D and a stout 56% for the pass D. New coordinators were put in place on both sides of the ball, one of my areas to watch this season. An offensive concern was the lack of a true #1 WR target. Like BYU, Boise was expected to field an experienced team.
BYU 2022 Performance: My season win play of UNDER 8.5 wins has already cashed, as their record is just 4-5. On the surface, that looks bad, but losses are to Oregon, Notre Dame, Arkansas, 7-1 Liberty and 6-2 East Carolina. Their overtime win hosting Baylor was their best of the season thus far. The next best would be their 38-24 hosting Wyoming, a game they were favored to win by 21 points. Despite this, QB play has been really stout, with Hall showing a 21-3 Td to interception ratio, and the run game averaging over five yards per carry. Unfortunately, these teams are putting up good offensive numbers on BYU’s defense, and my projections are not being met. Kicking has let them down (7-12), although it has yet to cost them a game.
Boise 2022 Performance: Boise started 2-2, then made a QB change after losing at UTEP 27-10. 6’6” freshman QB Taylon Green has helped steer Boise to a 4-0 mark, hitting 67% with a 4-4 ratio. He’s displayed impressive rush skills as well, with 258 yards and five rush TD’s. In ALL areas, the Bronco’s have exceeded my statistical projections. The run defense is barely over 3.2 allowed per carry, and the pass defense is at 49.4%. Kicking is 14-17. It’s not all good news, as explained below.
KEYS TO THE GAME: For BYU, QB Hall must continue his strong 2022 performance despite facing a solid Boise pass defense. Dual threat QB’s (Oregon, Arkansas) put up a total of 93 points on BYU’s defense. Green is clearly a dual threat, but he’s just a freshman and should not be confused with QB’s Nix and Jefferson. Can BYU contain him? For Boise, Hall will be the best QB they will have faced. Can they pressure him (20 defensive sacks, vs. BYU allowing just 11)?
Handicapping Factors Favoring BYU: As explained in the past, I use several methods when handicapping a game, including Power Ratings, matchup metrics, historical data when appropriate, and general as well as team specific situational factors. BYU’s main edge is the enormous schedule disparity. Fresno and Air Force are fine teams, but Boise faced Fresno without their #1 QB and beat one-dimensional Air Force 19-14, stopping their run attack. The toughest team on their schedule was Oregon State, and the Beavers won that game 34-17. By contrast, Baylor, Oregon, Notre Dame and Arkansas all carry higher Power Numbers as compared to Oregon State, and to date, BYU has only faced two teams who are not already bowl bound, and even Utah St might make a bowl game. I’m not used to seeing this large a schedule disparity between Power Five teams in November. Back to QB play. Only in the opener at Oregon State has Boise faced a QB with even modest talent. OSU’s QB was 15-24. BYU’s Hall will be a massive test. Is this enough to give BYU the edge? Let’s now examine Boise’s edges.
Handicapping Factors Favoring Boise: Boise will not be looking past BYU, despite BYU having 2021 revenge. In 2020, BYU won at Boise (the site of this game) 51-17. Obviously, the stats favor Boise, but how much of that due to schedule disparity? To Boise’s credit, they have run as expected in most of their games vs. the defenses they’ve faced. I still show a slight edge running the ball for Boise, even after consideration of all the great offenses BYU has already faced. I say that because of a) Green being a dual threat QB, and b) the likelihood that BYU’s pass rush will be average at best here. Momentum suggests that Boise is in great spirits, while BYU comes off a tough loss hosting East Carolina. Kicking also favors Boise.
FINAL THOUGHTS AND PROJECTED OUTCOME: This is a fascinating game to handicap. The QB change has enabled Boise to put 2021 results behind them, while BYU is on a four game losing streak, casting some doubt on the direction of the program in their final year as an independent before moving to the Big 12. How much should schedule strength be weighted? Ultimately, that is the biggest consideration, and it’s one we all must grapple with. In this case, I’m leaning to putting major weight on the disparity. BYU has a good track record at Boise, and one extra day to get over the close home loss vs. East Carolina. They are 55-36 vs. the spread with next season revenge, including a win hosting well-coached Baylor. This is really about BYU’s internal mindset. I show Hall as being efficient in this game, so if the Cougars can contain QB Green this should be a close game. I’m still picking Boise to win based on their kicking edge, but a 30-24 result would not surprise me (Boise favored by 7.5).
Visit me on twitter @ronacesports where I provide thoughts about all things football, and offer up additional handicapping analysis in podcast form as well.
Kyle Hunter’s preview for this game can be seen on BetUS TV and the college football show here.
