Potential first-round QB’s sometimes opt out of the bowl games they’ve led their teams to, in order to prepare for the upcoming NFL draft. It’s an emerging phenomenon we’ve witnessed recently. Wyoming QB Josh Allen has decided to play in the bowl game, perhaps to help his draft stock. The line has moved 3.5 points in Wyoming’s favor, going from a pick to -3.5. I don’t understand the drastic line move for a QB whose rating is #104th in the nation. Let’s take a dive into some analysis and see if we can pick a winner to keep our run going.
Central Michigan vs. Wyoming Famous Idaho Potatoes Bowl
Date/Time: Friday, December 22nd at 4:00pm EST
TV: ESPN
College Football Betting Odds from 5Dimes
College Football Betting Favorite: Wyoming -3.5
Total: 45.5
Central Michigan is arguably one of the top teams in the MAC Conference, and certainly had the best second half of any team in the MAC. They are led by mobile Senior QB Shane Morris. He put up 26 TDs on the season with 13 INT. Central Michigan won their final five games of the season, and the squad hasn’t tasted defeat since back on October 14th in a 30-10 loss to a powerhouse Toledo team. While their offense is prolific, their calling card lies on the defensive end of the ball. The Chippewas rank #1 in the country in forced turnovers at 2.58 per game, and #2 in the nation in interceptions at 1.58 a game. Stopping QB Josh Allen will be made easier by the Central Michigan defense as they rank 7th in the nation in pass efficiency defense. QB Allen has missed the last two games for Wyoming, so we would expect some ring rust here as he steps back under center in this contest. The Chippewas 8 wins this season have come against an average offensive opponent ranking of 109th in yards per play and Wyoming ranked 124th in yards per play, so the Chippewas are beating up on bad offenses, and Wyoming fits the definition of a bad offense.
Wyoming has a terrific defense and that’s no secret. They rank #12 in the nation in yards per play allowed. They rank #2 in forced turnovers, #14 in defensive strength, and #13 in total Tds allowed per game at 2.08. Wyoming has had the most trouble this season against teams with mobile QBs. Central Michigan was ranked #54 in total QB rating this season. Wyoming went 1-4 SU this season against teams with a QB rating ranked #60 or above. Wyoming on the offensive side of the ball, that’s a different story. QB Josh Allen hasn’t had close to a Heisman-worthy performance. Wyoming ranked #110 in offensive explosiveness, #124 in yards per rush attempt at 3.08, and #126 in total yards per game at 289.
Sin City Sharp (@SinCitySharp on Twitter) Free Pick:
I don’t understand the line move towards Wyoming here. Central Michigan faced a harder strength of schedule than Wyoming and performed better. Central Michigan is clearly the hotter team with tons more momentum here. QB Josh Allen will be thinking of not injuring himself and the NFL Draft, and not thinking of guiding his team to victory. I really like Central Michigan here to win outright, and getting the points is an added bonus.
Take Central Michigan +3.5
