College Football Digest & Betting Guide- Week 3

By Ron Marmalefsky (@ronacesports)

This week’s edition comes in three parts.  Part One looks back on last Saturday’s games.  Part two takes a closer look at some late game decisions in a week where so many games came down to the wire.  Finally, part three looks at the three games this week between Power Five teams that are undefeated.  

PART ONE: Reflecting back on last Saturday’s games

• Alabama-Texas: Did Texas let the Crimson Tide off the hook?  I thought they got conservative offensively when they could have put the game away.  Still, their defensive effort was something I did not expect.  Can that continue?
• Kentucky-Florida: Hats off to the Kentucky defense who made Anthony Richardson look human.  Richardson was 14-35 passing.  Kentucky continues to fly under the radar in some circles.
• App St-Texas A&M: I was impressed with App St’s ability to rebound from an emotional 63-61 loss the previous week.  They accomplished this upset by controlling the line of scrimmage against one of the better defensive fronts.  App St ran 82 plays to A&M’s 38, and A&M had the ball for just 18 minutes and 17 seconds.  
• USC-Stanford: As expected, points were plentiful.  USC’s offense didn’t take long to jell, and WR Addison is showing off in his audition for the NFL.  I think both defenses have work to do.  Note that the Cardinal were -4 in turnover margin in the game, and now stand at -7 overall.  They’ll be more competitive if that gets fixed.

QUICK HITTERS:

• Teams often struggle when losing key components of their team.  Virginia returned their prolific QB and his top three receiving options, all of whom produced outstanding numbers in 2021.  They entered 2022 losing a real good coach in Bronco Mendenhall, but even more importantly, had to replace all five offensive line starters.  Virginia scored just three points in a loss to Illinois last weekend.
• Nebraska allowed 642 yards to Georgia Southern in yet another one score loss.  Scott Frost was fired.  Is anyone surprised? 
• Welcome back Sam Hartman.  He got a clean bill of health and looked good for Wake Forest in his return.  
• Last week I noted that Nevada had a +9 turnover ratio in just two games.  This week the turnovers were even, but Nevada regressed back to preseason expectations, losing 55-41 to Incarnate Word.  Yes, Incarnate Word.
• Hail to the Sun Belt.  Along with App St, new member Marshall upset Notre Dame.  Top to bottom, that league is better than people think.
• Wisconsin and Iowa lost outside of the Big Ten, but while it doesn’t affect the conference race, both teams showed vulnerability.  So, who is the best team in the Big Ten West?  At this point, the race seems wide open.
• Who’s my leader in the clubhouse for a group of five bid?  I’m going with Air Force at the present time.

PART TWO: Decisions, decisions.  What I liked and what I didn’t like about end game coaching moves last Saturday

Many games came down to the last snap of the ball.  I’ve isolated four games that either went to overtime or had a chance to go to overtime.  Here’s my take on which decisions were ones I agreed with and which decisions I would not have made.

1. UTSA beats Army in overtime 41-38.  In a back-and-forth game, Army scored with 1:03 left on the clock to narrow the score to 35-34.  Proficient in the option attack, I would have gone for two to try to win the game.  It’s only two yards.  The game went to overtime, where UTSA QB Frank Harris (32 of 45) was allowed to try to win the game and he did.
2. Tennessee beat Pittsburgh in overtime 34-27.  Pitt scored with a little more than two minutes left to narrow the margin to 27-26.  At that point, both of their QB’s were banged up, and could barely function.  There was too much time left to risk going for two and the lead, but I would have considered it with their top RB having a stellar day.  I would have gone for the win had Pitt tied the game up in the 1^st overtime.  I wonder if that would have happened.
3. Fresh off a triple overtime win over UTSA, Houston played a double overtime game vs. Texas Tech, losing 33-30, giving up a fourth and twenty play to extend the game.  After Houston scored a TD to lead 27-20, Tech scored to get within a point.  I (slightly) agree with the decision to go for the tie, as Houston had to be showing signs of fatigue.  Houston kicked a field goal in the 2^nd overtime, but four plays later Tech found the end zone and got the victory.
4. In a wild, PAC 12 after dark finish, Oregon State took the lead 29-26 (two point try good) over Fresno with just under two minutes left in the game.  Fresno responded with a TD of their own in less than a minute, but missed the extra point.  That gave the Beavers time to get in position for the tie, but thanks to a late penalty, OSU had a decision to make.  With two seconds left on the clock OSU had the ball on the two-yard line.  Fresno had rolled up almost 500 yards to that point, but initially OSU lined up for the game-tying field goal.  That changed after Fresno called a timeout.  OSU went wildcat, with Jake Colletto taking the direct snap.  Those who follow the Beavers know that Colletto has run the wildcat on numerous times on fourth down and short.  This was clearly the correct call and Colletto ran almost untouched into the end zone.  That’s the identity of the OSU Beavers in an important win for the beleaguered PAC 12.  

PART THREE: An early look at games involving undefeated Power Five teams

Penn State at Auburn: The big question I had about Penn State (PSU) coming into the season was would the run game improve.  On my PSU team sheet, I made it a point to track their touted freshman RB’s.  Ohio U isn’t famous for stopping the run, but RB Singleton ran absolutely wild in this game and suddenly, PSU might be more balanced in its attack.  Auburn does an excellent job of stopping the run and has shown some solid defensive #’s in their two games, but has faced only Mercer and San Jose State this far, and these teams do not have prolific offenses.  Auburn’s own run to pass ratio is heavily skewed to establishing the run.  PSU will likely bend vs. the Tiger’s run attack but may not break.  I can’t get an accurate read on this game based on the opponents each of these teams have faced but I think the line is relatively accurate as long as it stays -3 or lower.  These teams played last year at PSU, and Auburn was stopped at the two-yard line in a 28-20 loss.  

Texas Tech at North Carolina State: I didn’t expect to be talking about Texas Tech in this report, but they are 2-0 for the new staff after an overtime win hosting Houston.  It’s only two games, but Tech looks better defensively and could make noise once conference play starts.  NC St has high expectations but was lucky to survive week one when East Carolina made mistakes down the stretch.  One of the most experienced NCAA teams, they deserve top 15 consideration but the pressure is different when they are expected to win ten or more games, and the Wolfpack may be unaccustomed to being in that role.  Past history has them not that efficient when laying double digits, and because of that the line might be a tad lower than expected.  This will be a tougher test for Texas Tech, but winning with a new staff can be contagious, and Tech’s 2-0 start, achieved by converting a 4^th and twenty play late in the Houston game, gives them a confidence boost.  Like the game above, my 2022 data points are incomplete based on the type and quality of opponents faced.  I have more to learn about both teams.

Michigan State at Washington: This one’s interesting.  This is a prime-time game (ABC) that is on Washington’s home turf, which means that the PAC 12 has no travel excuse if another one of its members loses in front of a national audience.  Unfortunately (for me), my pre-season notes already warned me that games 1-2 for both teams would likely offer no insight for this particular matchup.  Here’s what I can say about these teams.  For Michigan State (MSU), their two transfer RB’s are really good (combined 58-362 so far).  Their QB is decent, but has thrown three picks.  I like the WR talent.  Coach Mel Tucker can be intense, and his defenses tend to reflect his persona.  Washington also has a transfer RB, and after a down year for their run offense, the Huskies are back to solid levels.  I still give the overall run and line of scrimmage edge to MSU.  Even with some expected regression, I give the edge in the secondary to Washington.  My initial lean was with Washington due to one situational factor, and one scheme advantage, but the odds now read Washington -3.5, and although not a Power Play (defined as when my line is 3.5 points different than the available number), I have the true line for this game lower, at Washington -1.5.  Never one to “force” a play, I’ll use this game as another piece of the puzzle for both teams moving forward.

After this weekend, most NCAA teams will have played three games.  While I switch to full use of 2022 data only after teams have played four games, I do look at the numbers after the 3^rd game to see where teams are trending.  For next week’s column I plan to isolate a few teams and discuss what I’ve seen so far from their 2022 season.

Visit me on twitter @ronacesports where I provide thoughts about all things football, and offer up additional handicapping analysis in podcast form as well.

Kyle Hunter is on a 15-5 run in college football and went 3-0 in the NFL in Week One. All his plays are available here.