College and NFL Football Betting Line Moves and Updates
By Doug Upstone of www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com
For this week’s edition, there actually a few college games with larger moves, but they are predicated on injury, thus we will focus on the more traditional adjustments. Here are the largest early line moves this week along with current information.
CFB – (311) ARMY at (312) EASTERN MICHIGAN 6:00 ET W-ESPN
Eastern Michigan is 2-1 ATS and while they still are likely to have a losing season, they appear improved. That is one of the reasons why the Eagles from +1 to -3 against the Army, the other, the Black Knights have not won a road games since 2010, losers of 21 straight (2-19 ATS). This could an overcorrection with Eastern Mich., whose 1-9 ATS off a home game. Update – The correction I anticipated happened and the Eagles are now at -1.5 or -2, with just under 54 percent betting support. Doug’s Take – Lean Eastern Michigan
CFB – (317) SOUTHERN MISS at (318) NEBRASKA 12:00 ET ESPNN
To Nebraska’s credit they never quit at Miami, but they played three awful quarters against the Hurricanes, which has made them an untrustworthy favorite even against Southern Miss. The Cornhuskers have tumbled from -24 to -22, largely because the Golden Eagles are 27th nationally in passing yards and the Huskers are 127th defending the pass. Update – Most offshore books have the same price on Nebraska, but on the Vegas Strip -22.5 and -23 are more commonly seem. This despite 70+ percent backing for Southern Miss. Doug’s Take – Lean Southern Miss
CFB – (323) NAVY at (324) CONNECTICUT 12:00 ET CBSSN
It was a touch surprising to see Navy sink from -9 to -7 at Stoors, but here is why. Connecticut coach Bob Diaco is a brilliant defensive coach and has the Huskies moving in right direction. Two weeks ago they played Army who runs a similar, if not as good option attack and held them to 180 yards rushing. Lastly, they bottled up Missouri and held then to nine points. Update – The number has not moved and just the slightly of leans with UConn on bets placed, but most sharps like the Navy on the road. Doug’s Take – Lean Navy
CFB – (329) BOWLING GREEN at (330) PURDUE 12:00 ET BTN (side and total)
Bowling Green has the top passing offense in the country at better than 450 YPG and can move the ball on anybody. With the Purdue defense allowing 35.3 PPG, the Falcons have been flipped from +2 to -2. Just keep in mind the Boilermakers can also move the ball, scoring 31 PPG and Bowling Green concedes 39 PPG. No surprise the total jumped from 73 to 78. Update – With Purdue making a QB change, the Falcons flew to -5 before settling at -4. The total went in reverse to 75 with the news. Over 85 percent are on Bowling Green and almost 55 percent are tracking the Over. Doug’s Take – Bowling Green covers and Over
CFB – (333) WESTERN MICHIGAN at (334) OHIO STATE 3:30 ET ABC/ESPN2
Football bettors are forecasting Ohio State breaks out of their lethargy and comes to play against a pretty good young Western Michigan outfit. The Buckeyes have been elevated from -28 to -31, with most expecting Urban Meyer to have the troops ready. The current total of 58 could be an indication, with Ohio State 10-2 ATS at home when the total is between 56.5 and 63. Update – The Buckeyes continue to receive support, now at -31.5 or -32, confident Ohio State’s offense clicks. Better than 85 percent backing the Buckeyes. Doug’s Take – Lean Ohio State
CFB – (343) VANDERBILT at (344) MISSISSIPPI 7:00 ET ESPNU
After the big Alabama upset, those betting football are thinking Mississippi is due for a letdown against Vanderbilt. After moving up in the polls and the players being told how great they are in being the first Ole Miss squad to knockoff the Crimson Tide in consecutive years, they have fallen from -27 to -24.5. Vandy is 8-3 ATS at Oxford. Update – A few betting outlets where squares are known to play have Mississippi back to -25, otherwise, just past 60 percent are runnin’ with the Rebels. Doug’s Take – iVanderbilt covers
CFB – (403) CALIFORNIA at (404) WASHINGTON 4:00 ET PAC-12N
California is 3-0 for the first time since 2011 as they prepare for Pac-12 action and coach Sonny Dykes has brought excitement back to Berkeley. The Golden Bears can score with anybody and while it’s defense was not good at Texas, they are better and Cal went from -2 to -4.5 in this matchup. It was four years ago California had the same record and went to Washington and lost. Update – Not unexpectedly, Cal went to -3 with concerns about their defense and it should be told they are 0-7 ATS as road faves of three or less. Huskies a bit past 50 percent in tickets made. Doug’s Take – Washington covers
NFL – (461) PITTSBURGH at (462) ST. LOUIS 1:00 ET CBS
A trifle puzzled why Pittsburgh would drop from -2.5 to -1, only because the way to beat the Steelers is through the air and St. Louis is averaging 205 yards passing a game, not exactly the – Greatest Show on Turf – material. The thought has to be the St. Louis pass rush at home will bother Ben Roethlisberger and curtail Pitt’s No. 3 scoring offense. Update – Definite sharp action here with many outlets now at a Pick, in spite of nearly 90 percent of bets placed on the Steelers. Doug’s Take – Lean Pittsburgh
NFL – (463) SAN DIEGO at (464) MINNESOTA 1:00 ET CBS
Minnesota played like the team most expected in the win over Detroit and they are being highly thought of again, up from -1 to -2.5. The thought process is if Cincinnati can run on the Chargers, the Vikings certainly can and the Bolts have committed six turnovers in two games. However, San Diego is 8-1 ATS in September. Update – Number holding up, but not sure if it will be game time as a couple of offshore books which encourage sharp money now have the Chargers at -1 or -1.5. The Vikes are at just over 50 percent of action placed. Doug’s Take – Lean San Diego
NFL – (467) PHILADELPHIA at (284) N.Y. JETS 1:00 ET FOX
Philly was either -1 or a Pick before the Monday night game, but after the Jets impressive performance, they were pound hard and made two-point favorites. Hard to argue with given the current state of both teams. Based on matchups, New York has definite advantages and no, DeMarco Murray is not on a missing persons report. Update – After holding steady all week, have witnessed a weakening, with the Jets at -1 or -1.5, though they do have two-thirds support. Doug’s Take – Lean Philadelphia
