By Ron Marmalefsky
In this week’s weekly digest, I break down the ACC matchup between Florida State (FSU) and North Carolina State (NC St)
OPENING STATEMENT: This is a fascinating game for me, and that’s why I chose it for an extended write-up. Both teams came into last week at 4-0, but left last weekend with ten-point losses. One more loss and Divisional hopes are dashed.
FSU PRESEASON PROGNOSIS: FSU was expected to be improved by most analysts, and I was no exception. My run projection was strong for them, and they’ve actually exceeded expectations. I am spot on thus far with my defensive projections.
NC St PRESEASON PROGNOSIS: Most people had NC St in top ten consideration, which was partially understandable considering their returning depth and talent. My concern was that the ACC Division they play in is loaded, and all teams were highly experienced. Another concern was living up to the hype, which can weigh on a team, as we’ve seen each and every season. My preseason rush projections were 4.2-3.75. All signs pointed up, but again, could they live up to the hype?
FSU 2022 PREFORMANCE: The loss to Wake may be more of a function of Wake being a solid team, and less about FSU not meeting expectations. Still, FSU is 2-0 in close games and not yet ready for full top 25 endorsement. The rest of the schedule is not easy, but FSU has all their goals still in front of them, especially these next two weeks, with NC St this week and Clemson next week. I have only one issue with FSU’s overall performance. Their kicking game is a worry, with a 4 of 9 ledger. At some point, this will be costly. Their LONGEST made kick is 30 yards.
NC St 2022 PERFORMANCE: Using my rush formula (corrected for sacks, kneel downs, etc.), the numbers are spot on, at 4.3-3.75. Using the eye test, NC St has played tight. They clearly showed jitters week one, scoring a very lucky win at East Carolina. I thought that could get them to relax, but their stout QB was not able to do much damage at Clemson. I think their run game could be a bit underrated, but they haven’t showed any real inclination of using it to full advantage. NC St won easily at FSU a year ago, and also won 38-22 as a double-digit favorite hosting FSU in 2020. The good news is that NC St doesn’t necessarily feel bad about losing to Clemson as they went toe to toe for much of the game. The bad news is that the Wolfpack let a statement game opportunity slip away, and now has to rely on other teams to get back into the race. In more good news, NC St has a variety of pass-catching options, and their kicking game is more than solid (8 of 9).
KEYS TO THE GAME: FSU needs to use their top tier rush attack to keep NC St off the field. I expect rushing success, but the next question is this: Will rush yards translate into red zone points? NC St has the slightly better pass defense, so FSU needs the run game to loosen up NC St’s pass coverage. Obviously, kicking must improve. For NC St, I’d trust the run game more than what they have done thus far, to take some of the pressure of their QB. Their lead RB has split carries (44-262). The other RB isn’t bad (4.25). There is no turnover edge, but NC St has the better shot to win if they do have that advantage. Emotionally, Clemson was a “possible” letdown, but all would be forgotten with a quick start behind the home crowd.
FINAL THOUGHTS AND PROJECTED OUTCOME: Maybe NC St avoids disaster, not because of the Clemson loss, but because 4-1 sounds pretty good as opposed to had they lost that opener at East Carolina. A New Year’s Day game is still on the table. The rushing data favors FSU, but contrary to last week’s write-up, my metrics show no % edge that I can back. The line may cross the -3, which would cause me to lean with FSU, but this will not be a play. I went into this writeup with an open mind and after putting this in print, I can’t get past the fact that FSU MUST finish drives, as that field goal % (and lack of distance) has to be a concern. That leads me to believe NC St can escape with a win in what figures to be a very interesting game to watch.
Visit me on twitter @ronacesports where I provide thoughts about all things football, and offer up additional handicapping analysis in podcast form as well. My NFL 1st quartile review is already up on this site!
