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Here are the largest early line moves this week and the present betting percentages of wagers placed.
CFB – Friday (105) NEW MEXICO at (106) ARIZONA STATE 10:00 ET PAC-12N
New Mexico had no defensive answers for Tulsa, allowing 600 yards in 40-21 defeat at home. Now the Lobos cross the state line into Arizona to face the Sun Devils, who have also not looked good in two starts. Nevertheless, the betting action is one-sided with Arizona State up four points to -28. However, New Mexico is 11-2 ATS after a home upset loss. Betting Trend – Curious, just 59% backing Arizona State (@12:00, 9/16)
CFB – (109) WAKE FOREST at (110) ARMY 12:00 ET CBSSN
With Wake Forest done in by -3 turnover margin at Syracuse in 30-17 loss, they still are attracting support in next road game. The Demon Deacons have allowed only 1.4 YPC, which is critical against the Army’s option offense. For this reason alone Wake Forest could have risen from -3 to -6. Wake Forest is 5-0 ATS at West Point. Betting Trend – Wake Forest has 89% backing
CFB – (125) ILLINOIS at (126) NORTH CAROLINA 12:00 ET ESPN2
Though Illinois is not good, they pounded up on a couple of opponents worse than they are, but this did not impress those placing bets and the Fighting Illini zoomed from +6.5 to +9.5. This is their first road test and its is not like we have not seen this movie before with them. North Carolina is improved, but this seems pricy now. Betting Trend – Curious, Illinois has 59% backing
CFB – (137) NEVADA at (138) TEXAS A&M 12:00 ET SECN
Nevada was no match for Arizona at home, losing 44-20. Now the Wolf Pack travel to College Station to face an even more potent offense, a stronger Texas A&M defense and have to contend with 9:00 am PDT start. No wonder the Aggies were jumped from -29 to -34 point home favorites. Betting Trend – Curious, Nevada has 63% backing
CFB – (159) GEORGIA TECH at (160) NOTRE DAME 3:30 ET NBC
Though oddsmakers made one adjustment because Notre Dame lost their quarterback to injury, the wagering public has even less faith in the Fighting Irish and flipped them from -1.5 to +2.5 home underdogs. The quarterback situation is one element, but another is the Irish always have issues with option teams and their defense was shredded by a mediocre Virginia offense last week. Betting Trend – Georgia Tech has 89% backing
CFB – (189) UTEP at (190) NEW MEXICO STATE 8:00 ET ALT/W-ESPN
This southwestern rivalry game is big deal between these universities. At first could not understand why UTEP would fall from -5 to -2.5, since it is known New Mexico State is a moribund football program. However, when digging, the run-oriented Miners are expected to be without RB Aaron Jones (injured) and the offense is built around him. UTEP is 5-1 ATS versus the Aggies. Betting Trend – New Mexico State has 71% backing
CFB – (197) PITTSBURGH at (198) IOWA 8:00 ET BTN
When I first saw Iowa was only a 3.5-point favorite, jumped on it, because it sure seemed too low. Others have since joined in and the Hawkeyes are now at -5.5, which makes more sense. Pittsburgh lost All-ACC RB James Conner, has an inexperienced quarterback and Iowa’s defense is as rugged as ever. Hard to imagine the Panthers putting up many points in Iowa City. Betting Trend – Iowa has 91% backing
NFL – (269) NEW ENGLAND at (270) BUFFALO 1:00 ET CBS
Buffalo turned a lot of heads with handing Indianapolis a good beatdown. With coach Rex Ryan noted for frustrating Tom Brady with his defensive schemes and having the personnel to do an even better job, New England went from -1.5 to a Pick. Not 100 percent this will hold up because the Patriots are 9-2 ATS at Buffalo, but this contest is likely to have a great amount of wagering action both ways by Sunday. Betting Trend – Curious, New England has 75% backing
NFL – (273) TENNESSEE at (274) CLEVELAND 1:00 ET CBS
With how well Marcus Mariota played in his first game and the betting public assuming Johnny Manziel is not an NFL quarterback, Tennessee went from +4 to -1. While I am a fan of Mariota’s, there was a reason why the Titans had the second pick in the draft and I cannot believe they will win consecutive away games, even against the Browns and will take the +1 here. Betting Trend – Tennessee has 90% backing
NFL – (283) MIAMI at (284) JACKSONVILLE 4:05 ET CBS
Jacksonville might be improved by year’s end, however, they played like the same old Jaguars in loss to Carolina. This helped push Jacksonville from +4 to +6 in this Sunshine State showdown. While we understand the Jags are 3-12-1 ATS as home underdogs under coach Bradley, this seems high for unproven Miami club who was lucky to beat Washington. Betting Trend – Miami has 88% backing
