Game Preview: Mississippi State at Kentucky
By Ron Marmalefsky (@ronacesports)
OPENING STATEMENT: In this week’s weekly digest, I break down the SEC matchup between Mississippi State and Kentucky. Will QB Will Levis play for Kentucky? Let’s take a closer look into how these teams match up.
Mississippi State Preseason Prognosis: With a highly experienced QB, I expected continued success offensively. The DL has plenty of experience and I kept their run defense projection below 4.0 yards allowed per carry. I also expected modest gains with their pass defense. Kicking has occasionally been an adventure for Mike Leach and was on my watch list.
Kentucky Preseason Prognosis: Last year Kentucky clocked in with a -13 turnover ratio (regular season). For me, each turnover is worth 3.75 points. With a flat (=) ratio, that would save the Wildcats nearly 50 points. I planned on charting that figure for this season. In 2021, Kentucky ran for 5.7 per carry (adjusted for sacks and kneel downs). Even at full strength I lowered the number, but I knew lead RB Rodriguez (1,379-6.15 in 2021) might be suspended. Kentucky also lost three OL to the NFL. The defense was thinned out, so my preseason projections showed vulnerability. Even more than with Miss St, coach Stoops has built this program up to the point that Kentucky was no longer just a team happy to reach a lower tier bowl game. That meant giving them the benefit of the doubt, so with program stability I did not expect Kentucky to disappear from contention.
Mississippi State 2022 Performance: Miss St has run the ball 152 times this season. While that sounds low, it’s actually a step up for this team, and they have two very capable RB’s (119-647). It’s still primarily a dink and dunk pass scheme, designed to create space, with accuracy the main goal. Miss St has scored 39 or more points in five of six games. Despite the veteran DL, the run defense has not performed to expectations (4.8). The pass defense has been solid, and if Levis does NOT play, passing vs. Miss St won’t be easy. Kicking has been “acceptable”, with a pair of misses just last week.
Kentucky 2022 Performance: QB Levis has hit 68%, with a 12-4 ratio. In the home loss to South Carolina a week ago, the backup was 15-27 for 178 yards and a 2-1 ratio. He was repeatedly sacked, but even Levis has been sacked, as the Wildcats have allowed 25 in total. RB Rodriguez was suspended for games 1-4, and the Wildcats ran to just 3.4 yards-per-carry, a figure that was low even without him considering the level of competition. In the two games that Rodriguez has played, which came vs. better competition, Miss St ran 73-273, and Rodriguez ran 41-198. The Miss St run defense was supposed to be a tougher test, but as noted above, this could be an area Kentucky exploits. Kentucky’s run defense has performed slightly above expectations, but their pass defense has been excellent. This will of course be a massive test, but Kentucky does not allow a high yards-per-completion figure and can contain the Miss St pass attack.
Two Years of Data: In 2021, Miss St hosted Kentucky and beat them 31-17, winning the turnover battle 4 to 0. QB Rogers completed 36-39 passes, with “just” 1 TD pass. The completion % was a record for the SEC for QB’s who threw at least 30 passes. In 2020, Leach’s first year at Miss St, the story was completely different. Kentucky hosted and beat Miss St 24-2, winning the turnover battle 6 to 1. The two Miss St QB’s went 45-70, but for just 275 yards! Kentucky had virtually no offense of their own but did enough to get the win.
KEYS TO THE GAME: Regardless of who plays QB, turnovers have decided both games, and remain the ultimate key. For Miss St, can they convert passing yards into points? With just one pass TD in two years vs. Kentucky, this could be an issue. For Kentucky, they can NOT win without Rodriguez having a big day. If he’s stopped, either Kentucky QB will be sack prone. If Rodriguez delivers, Levis could find the end zone, while the backup could at least stay upright in play action sets. The kicking game favors Kentucky, but I won’t for now call it a massive difference. Thus far, Kentucky has a -3 turnover ratio.
FINAL THOUGHTS AND PROJECTED OUTCOME: My first question is this: How many points is Will Levis worth in relation to his backup? According to my Power Numbers, Miss St would be -1 with Levis, so at the current line of -6.5/7, that’s close to a difference of six points. I like Kentucky’s secondary in the matchup vs. this team, but to get the outright win the burden is clearly on RB Rodriguez. Unless Miss St improves via the run, that’s the attack plan I would use. I recommend Kentucky at +7 if Levis plays, but readers will have to stay ahead of the curve to get breaking news on his status. Keep in mind that Kentucky has a bye week after this game, and that might influence the decision. As a pivot, the total on this game opened 48, and is currently in the 46 to 47 range. Going UNDER the total of 47 is a strong move, especially if Levis sits. Last year’s game featured 48 points, but one score was on a punt return, and two scores were on “drives” of 22 and 24 yards. I show Miss St winning by only three points if Levis plays, and if he doesn’t play, I have the total points for this game coming in closer to 40. Good luck.
10/12 update: This article was written on Tuesday, October 11th, and things have changed as of late Wednesday morning. By all accounts, Will Levis will play on Saturday. Notable far away places started moving the line early this morning, and now the news is out faster than expected. As noted above, if he plays, I feel the line should be -1, and the game likely within three points, of course assuming Levis is reasonably healthy. But keep in mind that Levis may still not play, so the situation is worth monitoring all the way up to the late afternoon/early evening game time. Meanwhile, the total on the game is now as high as 49. I would lean to the UNDER at the new total, but the better look was going under a reduced total with the backup.
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