NFL Draft Series – Phase One
By Ron Marmalefsky (@ronacesports)
OPENING STATEMENT: The NFL draft is now just nine days away. This article will have two parts to it. In Part One, I will highlight my current top five players for each position on the offensive side of the football. In Part Two of this document, I will give you my up to the minute takes on what might transpire with the first ten picks of the draft.
Part One – Top Offensive Players in the 2023 Draft:
QB:
1T. Bryce Young, Alabama
1T C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
3 Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
4T Will Levis, Kentucky
4T Anthony Richardson, Florida
QB COMMENTS: I strongly believe in person-team fit. I won’t break the tie between Stroud and Young until after the draft, with a look at which OL is better equipped to protect the rookie, and which QB has the best set of TE’s. Yes, TE’s are a rookie QB’s best friend. The reason I currently list Hooker at #3 is because of the high bust factor for both Levis and Richardson. Again, let’s see where these three QB’s land, as these ratings are also not etched in stone.
RB:
1 Bijan Robinson, Texas
2 Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama
3 Zach Charbonnet, UCLA
4 Israel Abanikanda, Pittsburgh
5 Tyjae Spears, Tulane
RB COMMENTS: Bijan is a legit top 16 prospect, running with the grace of much smaller RB’s. Gibbs is currently slotted with a draft grade of between 25-35, so for me, he’s straddling the 1st round. I have about ten players who could have been considered for one of the final spots on this list, as it really is bunched up after the top two.
WR:
1 Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State
2 Zay Flowers, Boston College
3 Jordan Addison, USC
4 Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee
5 Quinton Johnston, TCU
WR COMMENTS: This is a rather mediocre group, especially when compared to recent classes. Njigba played three games in 2022 and has a one-year body of work. Flowers is the most polished but is shorter than ideal. Addison also missed plenty of time last year, and in some circles is viewed as a possession WR. Hyatt is just learning his craft, and Quinton Johnson has upside, but his body of work is also incomplete. Each one offers up a different skill set, so there may be no right order.
TE:
1 Michael Mayer, Notre Dame
2 Dalton Kincaid, Utah
3 Darnell Washington, Georgia
4 Sam LaPorta, Iowa
5T Luke Musgrave, Oregon State
5T Zack Kuntz, Old Dominion
5T Tucker Kraft, South Dakota State
TE COMMENTS: I like this group of seven. Half of the teams will flip Mayer and Kincaid, and it could just be a matter of taste and scheme fit. Washington is the most athletic of the group, and perhaps the best blocker. LaPorta comes from Tight End factory Iowa. For now, I can’t separate the next three, who are all worthy of day two picks.
Offensive Tackle:
1 Paris Johnson, Ohio State
2 Broderick Jones, Georgia
3 Darnell Wright, Tennessee
4 Anton Harrison, Oklahoma
5 Matthew Bergeron, Syracuse
OT COMMENTS: While the top two players are widely viewed as top fifteen players in this draft, the overall OT group has no sure things. Harrison is the youngest, and makes the list due to upside. Bergeron has to refine his pass blocking skill set.
Interior Offensive Line:
1 Peter Skoronski, Northwestern
2 Cody Mauch, North Dakota State
3 O’Cyrus Torrence, Florida
4 John Michael Schmitz, Minnesota
5 Steve Avila, TCU
Interior OL COMMENTS: I prefer to list Skoronski at guard due to his hand size, but like others, I think he can play tackle, and would rate him 2nd or 3rd best at OT. He might be an All-Pro guard however. Mauch is the wildcard, someone I like a bit more than others. He can play OT as well if need be. Schmitz is the best pure center, with Avila having center-guard versatility.
Part Two –My Thoughts for the Teams Drafting in the Top Ten: This draft might just be unpredictable throughout the 1st round. Here are my thoughts, and what scenarios might be playing out in the draft rooms for these teams. NOTE: You can read my 32-page NFL Draft Preview online if you would like a more detailed view of where I see each team prior to the draft. Written in early April, you can find it here. https://www.eastcoastsportsinvestors.com/blog
- Carolina: I am writing this section on 4/17, and evidence is mounting that Bryce Young is the pick. I’m fine with either Young or C.J. Stroud in this spot as long as Carolina surrounds its new QB with OL protection and a top tier TE.
- Houston: Handicapping Tip. It pays to know which teams/GM’s draft erratically, and go off the beaten path. I’ve written about the draft for forty years. Houston is one of the worst, if not the worst drafting team over the past decade. This is where you must study not the “TV” personalities, but what’s going on with private visits, beat writer stories, etc. For me, the Texans tipped their hand about 72 hours before the 2022 draft that they were heavily interested in CB Stingley. I wrote about this specifically in a last-minute news and notes article. What’s not important is that I got it right. What’s more important is to realize that Houston’s pick can, and has impacted those drafting right after them. Unrelated, of course, is that Stingley barely played in college the past two seasons, while the far better CB, Ahmed Gardner, had never even allowed a TD pass while at Cincinnati. That’s more of a season win nugget. To summarize, this pick could be edge rusher Will Anderson, edge rusher Tyree Wilson, QB C.J. Stroud, or, dare I say it, one of the other QB’s in this draft. I’ll know more in about a week.
- Arizona: Arizona must patiently wait for Houston’s pick before knowing what they “need” to do, which could be somewhat dangerous with a brand-new GM in place, coupled with a new, and very young coaching staff. In reality, they should have contingent deals already in place (and perhaps a bidding war as well) if Houston does NOT draft a QB. Edge rusher Will Anderson is the “safest pick” if they stay, but with QB Murray not guaranteed to be 100% healthy in September, my 1st choice would be to trade back in this draft and secure excellent draft capital for a complete rebuild.
- Indy: Indy says they won’t force things, and for the most part, I think they are telling the truth. CB is my #1 need for this team, and if Stroud and Young are gone, I would NOT go QB, and instead attempt to trade back in the draft. GM Ballard has acknowledged his shortcomings these past two drafts and needs to get this one right. With that said, I would think Indy would (and possibly should) offer Arizona a sweet deal to move up one spot if Stroud is not selected by Houston. Arizona could get more from other teams, but if they like Will Anderson, a move from 3 to 4 makes sense.
- Seattle: Seattle stunned most by having a conventional 2022 draft, and they hit big. With picks 5 and 20, the Seahawks could grab two additional starters. I’d like them to find an Outside Linebacker in the 1st round, but pick 5 seems rich for that. I show the interior OL as a need as well, but again, not with this pick. For now, this is another point in the draft where what they do will have a trickle-down effect. The choices seem to be troubled DT Jalen Carter, edge rushers Wilson or Anderson if he drops, or CB’s Gonzalez or Witherspoon. NOTE: Could Seattle, Indy at pick #4, or someone else in a trade up go after raw, but incredibly athletic QB Anthony Richardson? The answer is yes, as it takes only one team to fall in love with someone like him. As of 4/17, I am thinking neither Richardson nor Will Levis goes this high unless the Colts really think that highly about one or both.
- Detroit: In my 32-page NFL Draft Preview, I felt a draft of Carter at 6, LB Nolan Smith at 18, TE Washington at 38, followed by WR/safety with picks 55/81 would be ideal. Carter opposite Hutchinson and his work ethic would be interesting, but it should be noted that the coaching staff isn’t crazy about adding malcontents like the old regime used to do. More likely, this pick is for an edge rusher or CB, although CB is not high on my need list as compared to what some others are saying. I believe the draft team has NOT made up its mind so far, making this spot very interesting.
- Las Vegas: For now, I think any QB talk is a smokescreen. The criticism of Jimmy G is not due to ability, as his win record is stout. It’s due to availability, or the lack thereof due to injury. Last year these same Raiders butchered the draft, taking two interior OL, two RB’s (with that being a lower valued position, AND, Josh Jacobs as the starter) and two LB’s, another position that has been devalued. After purging so many recent defensive players that were drafted by Mike Mayock/Jon Gruden, I’d look defense, although OL issues can’t be ignored. There’s buzz for them taking a CB, but maybe not the one people are suggesting (Devon Witherspoon). It’s too early for me to have definite Intel, but keep your eye on Joey Porter Jr. Meanwhile, nothing would shock me for the Raiders on draft day, so keep that in mind when trying to fully handicap this NFL draft.
- Atlanta: People are likely getting tired of me saying this, but Atlanta needs to understand that having even an average pass rush would benefit their own secondary. This is a passing league, and Atlanta can’t figure that out. An average NFL defense produces 40 sacks per season. Atlanta had 18 in 2021 and 21 in 2022. No wonder they allow a high completion %. It’s not rocket science. Other than Myles Murphy, the Falcons thus far are not looking at any potential top ten picks at edge rusher. No, I do not have any clue right now as to what they’ll do with this pick, but my $$$ has to be on edge rusher/DL (-105 and -115 until recently), thinking they can’t be that stupid yet again.
- Chicago: All signs point to OL, and even though Paris Johnson is rated higher on 60-70% of boards, this could be the landing spot for local product Peter Skoronski, who offers more position versatility. At last check, OL was -180 to -210 at draft sites, and I would have set this about -300. What other options could there be? DL and CB are next on my need board, but OL really stands out with the number of sacks they allowed last year. I will say that the Bears new draft team traded willingly in 2022, so that’s one other thing to keep in mind.
- Philly: While GM Roseman deserves massive credit for building roster depth and talent, not all of his draft picks have hit. He will move up OR down the draft board, and in three of the past four drafts, moved up to steal a player coveted by another team. I know some people have them taking RB Bijan Robinson, but for me, this HAS to be OL or DL. OL was once +195, but that changed, and recently, DL was at +175. Shop around! I’m leaning slightly toward DL/edge.
NEXT WEEK: Look for Phase Two of this draft series. In that article, also in two parts, I’ll list my top defensive players in the draft by position, and then discuss some of the available draft props that might be worth looking at from a team and GM fit.
Visit me on twitter @ronacesports where I provide thoughts about all things football, and offer up additional handicapping analysis in podcast form as well. All of my podcasts and guest appearances talking NFL and College football can be found right here. This link takes you to my guest appearances talking NFL draft, NFL exit reports for each team, and past podcasts and tutorials from 2022. Additional draft related podcasts will be added to this list in the coming weeks (pre and post draft).
