NFL Draft Series – Phase Two
By Ron Marmalefsky (@ronacesports)
OPENING STATEMENT: The NFL draft is just two days away. This article will have two parts to it. In Part One, I will highlight my current top five players for each position on the defensive side of the football. In Part Two of this document, I will discuss some of the available draft props that might be worth looking at from a team and GM fit.
Part One – Top Defensive in the 2023 Draft:
Edge Rusher:
1 Will Anderson, Alabama
2 Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech
3 Nolan Smith, Georgia
4 Lukas Van Ness, Iowa
5 Myles Murphy, Clemson
EDGE COMMENTS: Edge Rusher is one of the deepest positions in the 2023 draft. All five players carry 1st round grades.
Defensive Tackle:
1 Jalen Carter, Georgia
2 Calijah Kancey, Pittsburgh
3 Bryan Bresee, Clemson
4 Maxi Smith, Michigan
5 Zacch Pickens, South Carolina
DT COMMENTS: It’s not a shock that outside of the QB’s, Jalen Carter is the most polarizing player in this draft. Studies have shown that past prospects with his profile pattern underachieve in the NFL. What might be expected is a roller coaster ride, with some all-pro performances, mixed with either a lack of conditioning (work ethic) or worse yet, a suspension or two due to maturity issues. Let’s see what organization takes a chance on this potentially high impact player.
LB:
1 Drew Sanders, Arkansas
2 Jack Campbell, Iowa
3 Trenton Simpson, Clemson
4 B.J. Ojulari, LSU
5 Daiyan Henley, WSU
LB COMMENTS: The lines often get blurred at LB, with some people probably viewing Ojulari as a possible edge rusher. As of this writing, the top three on this list are pretty close in ability/expectation.
CB:
1 Devon Witherspoon, Illinois
2 Christian Gonzalez, Oregon
3 Joey Porter Jr, Penn State
4 Deonte Banks, Maryland
5 Emmanuel Forbes, Mississippi State
CB COMMENTS: CB is one of the deepest groups in this draft class. The top four belong in the 1st round, with Forbes receiving strong consideration.
Safety:
1 Brian Branch, Alabama
2 Jordan Battle, Alabama
3 Sydney Brown, Illinois
4 Christopher Smith II, Georgia
5T Antonio Johnson, Texas A&M
5T Ji’Ayir Brown, Penn State
SAFETY COMMENTS: This is one of the weaker safety classes we’ve seen, with only Branch a legit 1st round target. Despite his size, I think Sydney Brown has the instincts to outplay his draft rating. I’m lower on Antonio Johnson that most people. He’s best playing near the line of scrimmage, but if his bench press score (8 reps) is any indication, he could be pushed around in traffic, and his ball skills (one career interception) is at least a minor concern.
Part Two – Discussion of what draft props might offer some value based on team and GM fit
As I said a week ago, this draft might just be unpredictable throughout the 1st round. Four teams have multiple picks in the 1st round. Half of the teams have had Head Coaches in place for a very short period of time. Multiple teams have new GM’s. Last year a number of teams selected players at positions that were NOT considered 1st or even 2nd choices by the betting establishment. In fact, at least eight times the position selected by a team yielded quite large payoffs. Below, I will examine some of the teams that may make choices that offer some wagering value beyond the usual favorites. Many, or most of these suggestions will not pan out, but it might take only one or two “hits” to make this profitable. Teams drafting in the twenties, for example, have to wait to see how the board looks before they are on the clock. I will try to stick to odds of +200 or greater.
NOTE: All quoted lines are as of the afternoon on Monday, 4/24. I strongly suggest shopping for the best lines, as draft odds vary widely. I found massive differences between places (Betonline, BetUS, Draft Kings, Fan Dual, Bovada).
As always, have fun if making these types of wagers. It’s exciting when they hit (last year a +3000 and a +800 were nice winners), but keep bankroll management in mind at all times.
ADDITIONAL NOTE: LISTINGS ARE IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER BY TEAM, AND NOT RANKED FROM HIGHEST OT LOWEST
- DALLAS goes OL with their 1st pick (+450): TE and DL are the favorites, and Dallas showed major interest in DL, but the bigger need is OL. The board may be dry at OL by pick 26, but +450 is value (most shops around +400).
- NEW YORK GIANTS go CB with their 1st pick (+200): Only one shop is at this price, but that works for me. OL is a big need, but CB is next, and the draft board could hold more value here. Another longshot could be WR at +2000.
- NEW YORK JETS go either DL (+370) or WR (+1700) with their 1st pick: OL was FIRMLY in play before the Rodgers trade, and remains a very heavy favorite, but moving back to pick 15 could create some value and a bit of a longshot? Understandably, this could fail, but the Jets could easily find a WR here, and strong DL options will also be available at this point in the draft. WR was higher, but is starting to drop.
- PHILLY goes DL with their 1st pick (+250): Everyone is +200 or more. Way back, this was the favorite over the OL but that has changed. I wouldn’t rule a trade up for DL Jalen Carter, and also, Philly did lose some free agents along the DL and they like to heavily rotate this unit. This seems like too much value, even though the OL deserves favoritism.
- TAMPA goes DL with their 1st pick (+300): I understand how risky this is, as Tampa has so many needs. That’s why I’d even throw a bone at WR, at a whopping +4000. The DL has age and plenty of expiring contracts, while the WR board will be relatively untouched when they are on the clock. I’d go OL, but again, that board could be weak by this time.
- JALEN CARTER goes to Seattle at pick 5 (+600), or is chosen at pick 7 (+1800): Hear me out on this. Seattle might want Will Anderson, but if he’s gone (and Wilson is gone), they may opt for the talented but troubled Carter. I DO NOT think Carter goes to Las Vegas (horrible match of city and player), BUT I could see a Philly trade from 10 to 7. Is that worth a small stab at +1800? Maybe.
- CB CHRISTIAN GONZALEZ goes to Detroit at pick 6 (+650): 1st off, it’s unlikely the Lions would trade out of this pick (but nothing is set in stone). If both edge rushers are gone, as is expected, then CB is the logical next choice for this team. Yes, you could attack this with CB Devon Witherspoon, but he’s at an inflated -130. There’s not that much of a gap between these two players, so value exists.
- TIGHT END LUKE MUSGRAVE is drafted in the 1st round (+650): Is this likely to happen? No, but I give this a 20% to 25% shot, and that implies odds of +300 to +400. He’s getting some steam of late as the 3rd TE off the board. I have him as a day two player (draft range 40-50), but had he played all year (2 games, 11 receptions), we might already be talking about him going in the 20’s.
OTHER PLAYS UNDER CONSIDERATION:
- BUFFALO goes OL (+460) or WR (+390) with their 1st pick. Lots of options, and there should be no true favorite.
- CINCINNATI goes RB (+1000), DL (+850) or CB (+250) with their 1st pick. It’s hard to make any play with three underdog options available, but if the top two TE’s are gone, then I think there’s value on this board. There’s still time for all of us to get more Intel on what they might do if they do not go TE, and it’s worth exploring these options.
- JACKSONVILLE goes OL (+370) with their 1st pick. This is their biggest need on my board, but the real hesitation is the possibility that acceptable targets may be gone by pick 24. Then again, GM Baalke likes to trade UP on draft day.
- MINNESOTA goes QB (+650) with their 1st pick. This would be a reach, but maybe Minny wants to plan ahead for replacing QB Cousins and his enormous 2024 salary hit. Hendon Hooker would be the look.
- NEW ENGLAND goes DL (+1000) with their 1st pick. I’ve quoted the best price for all of these selections, but in most cases, there are options that offer odds very similar, as is the case here. It’s also possible that better prices exist outside of the shops I looked at. No one ever knows what NE will do, so I am listing the highest option (CB, OL and WR are practically co-favorites, all around +250). If you have a conviction for this team, you get a nice price.
- WR Jalen Hyatt is drafted in the 1st round (+250). Based on the latest odds, we might not even have three WR’s drafted in the 1st round, as the over-under for WR’s going in the 1st round is 3.5 at a flat -115 each way at a majority of places. Even so, Hyatt isn’t really that far removed from any of the WR’s available in this draft, and his speed and ball tracking skill set may appeal to some teams. I’d prefer +300, and maybe someone offers that closer to the draft. KC could be one team interested in a big play WR such as Hyatt.
FINALLY: In addition to this article, I will be writing additional material (which may appear in print) offering up last-minute information. Also, as is my custom, I will be commenting during round one on the twitter platform, and working Thursday Night on a one-page recap of the 1st round. For information about this, as well as all this week’s draft-related podcasts, please visit me on twitter @ronacesports. All of my podcasts and guest appearances talking NFL and College football can be found using the link below. This link takes you to my guest appearances talking NFL draft, NFL exit reports for each team, and past podcasts and tutorials from 2022. Additional draft related podcasts will be added to this list in the coming weeks.
