By Ron Marmalefsky (@ronacesports)
OPENING STATEMENT: We’re down to the final seven games in an exciting NFL season. This article is written in three parts. In part one, I look back at the Super Wildcard weekend with some observations. Part two is a 1st look at this weekend’s games. Finally, part three lists a few general observations.
PART ONE: Looking back at last week.
SEATTLE at SAN FRANCISCO: Seattle was the first team to see Brock Purdy twice, but in the end, SF pulled away as the Seahawks were perhaps fatigued from their short week of practice, this after playing a high stakes overtime game. All systems are go for the offense, which is not only healthy, but clearly improved with McCaffrey fully entrenched in the game plan. Of Note: Geno Smith completed 25 of 35 vs. SF. The 49ers do not have a shutdown secondary.
LA CHARGERS at JACKSONVILLE: LA had a 5-0 turnover ratio edge but shoddy play-calling let the Jags back in the game. With each turnover worth 3.5 points, the Jags “gifted” 17.5 points to LA in the game. For me, that means the 27-0 score was not a true indication of one team being better than the other. Of NOTE: RB Etienne needs his carries. Not abandoning the run, he ran 20-109 in the game. TE Engram is also on a tear, with another seven receptions here. Sneaky fact: The Jags have proven to be tough to run on, and RB Ekeler ran just 13-35 in the game.
MIAMI at BUFFALO: Sometimes it DOES matter how one team matches up with another. Miami was impressive in each of the two regular season contests, and was one drive away from winning in a massive upset in their third meeting. Buffalo was right to attack the Dolphins with WR Gabe Davis. Miami was deficient vs. the pass and the astute Buffalo brain trust made them pay. Of Note: We can’t dismiss the fact that this Buffalo pass D is not as good as the 2021 edition. Buffalo was lucky to face Miami’s 3rd string QB, and this pass D figures to be tested throughout the playoffs.
NYG at MINNESOTA: My preview of this game called for completions galore, and very few punts. The NYG staff has done a masterful job with QB Daniel Jones, and he was superb vs. this below par defense. The going gets much tougher moving forward. Of Note: Unheralded WR’s Slayton and Hodgins carry one admirable trait: They seldom drop any footballs.
BALTIMORE at CINCINNATI: Clearly, Baltimore had the opportunity to win outright, and probably would have done so without that 14-point swing. The Raven’s style of play, especially defensively, keeps them in games and in this one, tended to dictate play vs. a Cincy team that has not run the ball as effectively as in the past. For the first time in two months, Joe Burrow was sacked more than twice (four in this one). Injuries were a part of that equation. Of Note: Tyler Huntley was 17-29 vs. Cincy. Amazingly, Cincy’s pass D% was even better than that in the regular season, and the unit as a whole is underrated. I’ll say more about the Bengals down below.
DALLAS at TAMPA BAY: It’s always a mystery as to which Dallas team will show up. In this one, Dak Prescott took advantage of a soft Tampa pass D scheme, while the one-dimensional Tampa offense was predictable for much of the game. When firing on all cylinders, the Cowboys have many varied offensive weapons, and they seem to be playing a less risky pass D scheme. Of Note: Once again, Tony Pollard outperformed Zeke Elliott in the run and pass game.
PART TWO: INITIAL LOOK AT THIS WEEKEND’S GAMES
JACKSONVILLE at KANSAS CITY: From Jacksonville’s side, the game 2nd year QB Lawrence played against KC on 11/17 was the start of his transformation into more than just a “rookie”. They lost 27-17, but Lawrence was effective despite KC’s 5-0 sack ratio advantage. For KC, I remain concerned about their 66+% pass defense. What benefits them is that they won despite having a 3-0 turnover disadvantage. EXPECTATIONS: The Jags must have RB Etienne run more than the nine times he did in that 11/17 game. I expect we will see Mahomes air it out a bit on Saturday. The Jags will need to win the turnover battle to have a chance at the upset. FINALLY: As is customary this time of year, the odds are tight, and there are no surprises. The Jags have had a fantastic turnaround in 2022 and love playing for this coach, but teams with their pedigree (lack of recent playoff experience, coupled with a strong initial playoff game) tend to hit the playoff wall in the next round.
NYG at PHILLY: This is the 3rd meeting between the teams. In the initial meeting, Philly exposed the lack of defensive talent on the NYG and scored 48 points. In the week 18 meeting, the NYG rested everyone of importance, yet still showed great resolve in playing hard all game long. Of course, that game marked the return from injury of QB Hurts, and he was clearly a bit rusty. Philly was #1 with a bullet in defensive sacks this year (68), while the NYG allowed 49 regular season sacks. Hurts runs over ten times a game. I’m not sure how often he runs in this game, as he will want to stay as clean as possible to maintain his recovery. Meanwhile, Daniel Jones ran freely last week vs. the Vikings, with some designed runs as part of the game plan. EXPECTATIONS: RB Barkley has had many a game where he was contained, but there’s always a chance he breaks one or two run plays, OR pass plays. Regardless of the situation, they need to make sure he’s not forgotten in the game plan. You CAN run on the Eagles, but teams must do so on their terms. I expect to see more of WR Richie James in this one unless the Philly game plan is to play press coverage at the line. We know Philly will come after Jones; how he handles the blitz and pass rush when it penetrates the soft NYG OL will dictate the game flow and results. FINALLY: While SF is considered the NFC favorite to reach the Super Bowl according to oddsmakers, this is another situation where the road team (NYG) has exceeded all preseason expectations, and won (as expected) their opening playoff game. I’m NOT as much inclined to think this is the same “hit the wall” scenario as with the Jags however. This is a Divisional game, and the NYG will be 100% focused on the task at hand, and will not be just savoring their latest win. Can my Coach of the Year pick, Brian DaBoll, will them to another upset?
CINCINNATI at BUFFALO: There’s lots of side issues in this game, but when it comes down to it, these are two of the very best 2022 NFL teams, with my 2nd (Burrow) and 3rd (Allen) best QB’s in the league. It will be emotional at first, as both teams were on the field to witness the tragic injury to DB Hamlin. His rapid recovery is a win for the NFL and its medical preparedness, and that takes the sting off some of what might have been an otherwise bittersweet game. Cincy seems to have moved past the storyline of where this game is going to be played. Joe Mixon has not pushed the pile much this year, save for one or two games. I think we’ll see more of him in the pass game, but only as a pass-catcher (see below). This could be another emotional game for WR Higgins. Blessed with WR1 talent, I’m hopeful people understand that he was NOT the defensive player at the time of Hamlin’s injury, and was not doing anything wrong on the hit. He’s capable of a breakout game, but I’m not sure that happens at Buffalo. Von Miller’s absence has hurt the Buffalo pass rush, but the Bills have plenty of young talent that could cause problems for the less than 100% healthy Cincy OL. EXPECTATIONS: I’ve seen Joe Burrow face adversity before and somehow thrive, and I wouldn’t put it past him to do that again. I’m not sure why Allen is forcing the ball so much, as many recent turnovers are on him, and not the guys he’s throwing the ball to. We don’t know (as of this writing) what WR McKenzie’s status is. If he’s out, I do think WR Beasley and not John Brown is ready to pick up some of the targets. FINALLY: Two RB notes. First, Joe Mixon has been subbed out in pass protection. That was an astute observation by one of the commentators (yes, that happens occasionally), and is something to watch, with Perrine the better blocker. 2nd, rookie RB Cook is being trusted more in the offense. He out-snapped Singletary week 18, but not in the playoff game vs. Miami, yet he had the better results. Singletary seems to be the “close the door” RB, one that won’t fumble and will be trusted to try to ice the game late, but Cook will get plenty of opportunities and may out-snap him if the game goes differently. I understand Buffalo being favored by over 3 points (current line -5), especially with Cincy’s OL uncertainty, but there’s something special about Joe Burrow that makes it difficult to ignore the points.
DALLAS at SAN FRANCISCO: I set this line at 4, giving 1.5 points for playoff home field advantage. I actually expected to see -5, given how well SF has played on both sides of the ball. Instead, we’re seeing the line hold steady at mostly 3.5, a sign in my eyes that when they play up to their potential, the Cowboys belong in the NFC title conversation. Dak’s accuracy is something that could make SF’s defense vulnerable. How the Dallas OL handles Bosa and the pass rush will be interesting. Also, SF’s LB’s are as good a unit as any in the NFL. It’s my contention that putting a Power Number on SF is not that easy. How do you defend, McCaffrey, Kittle, Aiyuk, Jeff Mitchell and a healthy Deebo Samuel? SF is a far different team than when they started the season, and also different with the addition of McCaffrey, and the time they now have had to redevelop their offensive scheme. EXPECTATIONS: I don’t have RB Elliott as being effective enough vs. this type of defense, so Dallas has to rely on Dak’s pocket being clean, Dak having a solid and accurate game, and RB Pollard stretching the field as a change of pace from the rest of the offense. As noted in many a podcast, Dallas has slowed down in getting to opposing QB’s. They had 42 sacks in the 1st ten games and 48 sacks after 12 games, but added just three more in the final five regular season games. Given SF’s uniquely outstanding run-pass balance, the Cowboys must do something above their stat sheet to slow down SF’s offense. FINALLY: I’ve heard that risk-reward DB Diggs (Dallas) has toned down his aggressiveness of late. SF’s motion and misdirection can drive opposing defenses crazy. Diggs and his fellow DB’s must stay assignment-sound in this chess match.
PART THREE: Quick hitting additional observations
- I noted in a tweet earlier this week that the referees “swallowed” their whistles last week. Penalties were way down as compared to the weekly average and that was not unintentional. The NFL reads the press clippings, and wanted crispier games to start the playoffs. What was the result? Penalty props went most under, and teams with typically high penalty tendencies in certain areas (such as offensive holding) were not flagged as much.
- With that being said, this weekend’s referee assignments are much different. While I certainly realize that these are “all-star” crews, the head referee sets the overall tone. Checking both regular season and playoff stats for each head referee can be quite telling.
- As a follow-up, Carl Cheffers (Cincy-Buffalo) has been #1 with a bullet in penalty calling for at least the past two seasons. PI calls and defensive holding calls will be judged much more harshly. Clete Blakeman (NYG-Philly) is not that far behind Cheffers, while Shawn Hochuli (Jags-Chiefs) is #2 in penalty yards assessed in EACH of the past two seasons.
- The 4th referee is Bill Vinovich (Dallas-SF). He calls virtually NO penalties, significantly lower than any other lead referee over the last few seasons, and is last by a large margin the past two seasons. This “may” be good news for Dallas, and in what seems like a contradiction, but is not, for under the total bettors. He has gone a full season without calling a roughing the QB penalty.
- There are other tendencies that can work with these referees, but let’s not give away the whole farm. Do keep in mind however, that a 63% under history does NOT ever guarantee an under in the next game. When playing sides and totals, home teams and away teams, know the tendencies, but do not make this your sole handicapping method.
- Last year the two teams with a playoff bye in the expanded 14-team playoff format were Tennessee in the AFC and Green Bay in the NFC. Both lost in their first playoff appearance. Does that mean having the #1 seed is overvalued? My answer is not in the least. My Power #’s in 2021 had Tennessee as somewhere around the 14th best NFL team. They were a pretender #1 seed, helped largely by a very weak Division and schedule, plus some close wins. In addition, RB Henry was coming back off a serious in-season injury, and clearly, he was rushed back. The game plan was incorrectly adjusted back to ground and pound, and that put Tannehill behind the eight-ball when pressed into longer passing downs. This was an easy fade. As for Green Bay, those who know me clearly realize how much I value special team play. GB not only had a leaky as always run defense, but the league’s worst special team unit. The meltdown on special teams in that playoff game was hardly surprising.
- For 2022, KC and Philly are the #1 seeds, and both are legit. KC has my #2 AFC Power Number and a QB named Patrick Mahomes. They are well-coached and tend to play well off rest. That being said, KC is not a perfect team, with occasional turnover issues (minus ratio on the season), an average pass D%, and a tendency to jump offsides far too often. Home field helps, but at the very least, Cincy and Buffalo are just as good.
- As for Philly, they also eared the #1 seed with (along with SF), the NFC’s top Power Number and clearly are one of the top five teams which have separated from the rest of the NFL. They have the league’s best pass rush, plus get the added benefit of having QB Hurts further recover from injury.
- Bottom line: These #1 seeds are much more prepared to advance further in the playoffs than the 2021 version.
- Finally, I’m really curious as to what coaches will be given the chance to fill the five NFL vacancies. I can’t help but think that KC coordinator Eric Bieniemy (again) will be strongly considered for one of the jobs. In my opinion, his ascension to the lead role is long overdue. The other coach who will essentially be auditioning for a return to the head coaching position is Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. Any sort of decent performance by his unit vs. SF would enhance his candidacy.
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