Ron’s Top-Rated Teams
By Ron Marmalefsky (@ronacesports)
OPENING STATEMENT: As we head down the stretch in the NFL season, six teams have separated themselves from the others based on my Power Numbers. In fact, the gap between my 6th rated and 7th rated team is as large as I’ve ever seen it for this time of the season. In this report, I will list my top six teams, and say a few words about how they got there, and what’s on tap for them the rest of the way.
1: BUFFALO (33.5): Buffalo opened 2022 with my highest Power Number and has stayed there, but the gap between them and the rest of the NFL has closed quite a bit once November play begin. They peaked at 36, but the metrics show a drop-off since then. Buffalo has allowed 14 sacks in their last five games, and the pass D% is at most, middle of the pack. Moving Forward: The ten-day “mini-bye” comes at the perfect time. Three of their final five games are at home, all vs. Divisional foes. I expect a sweep in those games. Buffalo might even survive a loss at Cincy and still claim the #1 seed. The stat sheet figures to improve.
2: SAN FRANCISCO (33.5***): Medic alert! SF now has lost two QB’s and their lead RB to injury, not even counting hits along the OL and at various spots on the defensive side of the ball. As many people know, I opened SF with a modest (27.5) power figure because QB Trey Lance needed time to grow on the job. Once injured, the short-term prognosis was favorable with veteran Jimmy G back in charge. It’s been awfully difficult to score on the 49ers, who own the NFL’s best scoring defense and top-rated run defense. They also rush the QB at a top five rate. With Brock Purdy at the helm, oddsmakers appear to be downgrading SF by about 4-4.5 points, which still would put them in the 6th spot on my Power Ratings. Moving Forward: SF’s defense should be decent vs. Tampa (off MNF, road game) and Washington, but Seattle, Vegas and Arizona have enough offense to “force” the 49ers and Purdy to maintain at least a modest level of offensive consistency. My draft recap had the following scouting report about Purdy: Like his intangibles and has plenty of high-level game experience, but lacks required arm strength and is consistently late on deep throws. The more tape there is on him, the better it is for opposing defensive coordinators. I think SF still wins the NFC West, but their likely slotting would be a #3 seed.
3: DALLAS (32.5): I know people will be surprised to see Dallas ahead of Philly, but even with an overtime loss to Green Bay, the Cowboys have looked good on both sides of the football during the past seven weeks. Their 48-16 sack ratio is by far the best in the NFL. Dak Prescott does not turn the ball over much, leading to a legit +9 ratio. RB Pollard adds an extra dimension to the team, and WR Lamb is tough to defend. Philly beat them (at their place) on 10/16, so catching the Eagles may not be possible. Moving Forward: After this week’s “exhibition game” hosting Houston, Dallas has a tough closing schedule, with games on the road at Jacksonville, Tennessee and Washington, and a critical home game vs. the Eagles. We could see a slight dip in their rating if their risk-reward secondary (think Trevon Diggs) gets burned. Regardless, Dallas will have a win opportunity in every game they play. Their likely playoff landing spot however, is as the #5 seed, which would have them face Tom Brady and Tampa at their place. Dallas fans hope Head Coach Mike McCarthy won’t be the deciding factor in that game.
4: KANSAS CITY (31.5): Unlike most teams, KC’s Power Number has barely fluctuated all season long. They lost ground last week when Cincy beat them, but given that was a road game, they still (barely) hold onto the #4 spot. As per usual, the defensive flaw for KC is their run defense, but other metric areas easily make up for this. Moving Forward: KC has won 13 in a row vs. Denver and hopes to continue that streak this weekend. If they do, the two toughest remaining games are home to improved Seattle and at Las Vegas in the finale. Seattle is very young, and I expect Mahomes to have a big offensive outing. KC has played well on the road vs. the Raiders, but if healthy, Vegas has the potential to score plenty of points. KC will certainly be in the running for the #1 overall seed given the remaining schedule.
5T: CINCINNATI (31): I feel like I’ve been ahead of the curve all season long on Cincy, realizing before others how consistent they’ve become. They entered my top group of teams ironically, AFTER the close loss to Baltimore on 10/9. I had them lower rated to start the season for reasons documented in many a podcast, and in my published NFL season preview report. As expected, the OL started slow, allowing 13 sacks in the 1st two games, and 30 sacks in the 1st eight games. The cohesion has started, and they’ve only allowed six sacks in the most recent (four) games. They have a top two pass defense. Holding them back is the low yards-per-carry rush attack and a below par pass rush, but Joe Burrow is now my #2 QB in all of the NFL and he can do more with less. Moving Forward: After Cleveland this weekend, Cincy’s schedule gets pretty tough. Road games are at Tampa and New England, and home games are vs. Buffalo and Baltimore. They must defeat Baltimore to have a shot at winning the Division, but amazingly, a sweep of Buffalo and Baltimore could give them a shot at the #1 overall seed. I’m not putting anything past Joe Burrow, but if their opponents are at full strength, Cincy may end up still chasing the (lower rated) Ravens, and therefore, end up with the 5th overall seed in the AFC, putting them on the road in the 1st round of the playoffs.
5T: PHILLY (31): This rating should NOT be viewed as being critical of what Philly has accomplished. In fact, this rating is as close to my #1 Power Number as it is to my #7 Power Number. In the preseason, no one knew exactly what QB Hurts would do as a starter. What we DID know is that GM Howie Roseman carefully assembled an offense which enabled Hurts to (possibly) thrive, while at the same time, signing and drafting potential impact players defensively, even as late as August. Roseman is my clear-cut choice for GM of the year. Hurts is a winner and a smart decision-maker, and the weapons are varied. Metrically however, there are flaws. He’s taken 30 sacks, and the run and pass D figures are nothing special. Philly entered the top five early on, right after week #3 and has remained ultra-consistent since then. Moving Forward: Philly owns a slim lead over Minny in the race for the #1 seed, but like with Dallas, the Eagles have a win in hand. The NYG, who they will face twice, have an average offensive profile, and the Bears and Saints are even worse. Even with a loss at Dallas, the Eagles could hold onto the #1 seed in the NFC, therefore getting the playoff bye.
NEXT WEEK: It’s college bowl season: I’ll likely post at least one College Bowl Preview in next week’s edition
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