By Ron Marmalefsky (@ronacesports)
All 32 NFL teams have played four games. NFL coaches often break down their games into quartiles, and I do the same. Once a team has played four games I no longer look back on ’21 data. The following represents a look at all AFC teams. This review will include a look back at some key statistics and player performances as well as a brief look ahead.
SPECIAL NOTE: With NFL teams now playing 17 games, we no longer have four true quartiles. I can tell you with certainly however, that most NFL coaches still use games 1-4 as quartile #1. The next quartile however, will likely be different for each team, and very likely contingent on the placement of their bye week, or mini-bye week. For that reason, teams with a week seven to week ten bye (or mini-bye) will likely define quartile #2 by that break in their schedule. Keep that in mind.
BALTIMORE: I seem to say the same thing every year. John Harbaugh is a mediocre coach who gets bailed out often by the athleticism of his star QB. Thus far, he’s blown 21 point leads (Miami) and 17 point leads (Buffalo), both at home! Along with poor 4th quarter decision-making, the defense has been well below par. RB Dobbins has returned, but not at all to past form, averaging about 3.2 per carry. The Next Quartile: The break comes after week #8 (mini-bye), so it’s convenient to discuss the next four games. The schedule remains tough during this period, and features two absolutely critical Divisional home games. The Buffalo loss stings, as they could have been a frontrunner for the top seed. The floor should be 2-2, with a great situation at the NYG and a home game vs. a less dynamic offense in Cleveland. 4-4 is not a deal breaker, but would be disappointing.
BUFFALO: The critics will say Buffalo finally won a close game. I say who cares! I expected a 2-2 start, so for me, going 3-1 just solidifies my #1 ranking. Once healthy defensively, the team might get even better. Having DB Poyer back vs. Baltimore was the difference in that comeback. They have 13 defensive sacks, and when they want to, can run the ball enough to set up their pass attack which features plenty of talent. The Next Quartile: Buffalo has a bye after week six, so this is not a true quartile for the staff. It does give them great rest between their two toughest remaining games, at KC (potentially a magical, and emotional game) and home to GB. I think 3-1 can easily turn into 6-2, and I still have them as the favorite to win the #1 seed.
CINCINNATI: After their expected slow start, the stars have aligned for the Bengals. Coming into 2022, Cincy had all kinds of negative indicators, including, but not limited to their QB off surgery and a nearly all new OL. Both Baltimore and Cleveland could have ended quartile #1 at 4-0. Instead, a now rounding into form Cincy team is tied for the lead, despite a terrible 7-16 sack ratio and still a few offensive kinks to work out. The Next Quartile: Games 5-9 occur before Cincy’s full bye week. That’s how this staff will view quartile #2, and I’ll do the same. A loss at Baltimore is NOT damaging. A win would vault this team to instant favoritism in the Division. Suddenly, the game at New Orleans is not so daunting. One reason I downgraded Cincy before 2022 was the spike in prime-time action, from one game up to five. The ebbs and flows of handling the short weeks and emotional games, plus the 1st place schedule was a concern, and NOT the roster, which I expect to round into form. I think 5-4 or 6-3 is well within reach, and THEN, after the bye, we can see the OL begin to fully make progress. Suddenly, Cincy has to be taken seriously (by me), but the overall remaining schedule is still tougher than that of 2021 4th place finisher Baltimore.
CLEVELAND: Cleveland tends to play better when expectations are lower, but QB play, plus a poor decision by RB Chubb late in the game vs. the Jets have made them look like an average team. The OL is opening up run holes and not allowing sacks, but Brissett has not stretched the field. They’ve averaged a stout (nearly) 26 points per game, but have faced four opponents who may NOT make the 2022 playoffs. Did they already miss an opportunity to position themselves squarely in the playoff race? The Next Quartile: The schedule clearly ramps up in this quartile. They have three home games, but the opponents are LA (Chargers), New England, and Cincy. The road game is at Baltimore. Hoping to build up win equity before QB Watson returns, I think 3-1 might be necessary in this quartile, as the next “break” in the schedule is not until game #15. As I said in my NFL preview, their most important game might be at the end of this quartile, hosting Cincy. This might be a 2-2 ceiling.
DENVER: Denver is 2-2 but performing like a 1-3 team. Playing behind a much better OL than what he had in Seattle, Russell Wilson has been sacked 12 times, and the offense has mostly looked doormat. As I wrote last week when discussing all the NFL new coaches, Denver’s decision-makers are failing the team. On the surface, the defense has held its own, and they have some superstars on this side of the ball. In a closer look however, the stat sheet (other than sacks) is not ideal, and the QB’s they have faced have been mediocre until last week. The focus is there at 2-2, but the team needs to play better. The Next Quartile: As I have said often, new coaches need time off to get up to speed. They won’t have that with the Thursday game this week, but then they have ten days off, and after this quartile they get the full week off. Assuming a loss at the Chargers, Denver’s other three games are hosting Indy and the Jets, and at Jacksonville. The loss of stud RB Williams “might” hurt if Wilson’s internal clock doesn’t improve, but it might also open up the pass game, where WR talent is not lacking. Anything less that 2-2 is unacceptable. 4-4 keeps them relevant, and 5-3 does even more. This Thursday game is mighty important.
HOUSTON: Houston has been highly competitive thus far but as long as Lovie Smith is the coach, they will remain flawed. QB Mills has been acceptable or better, but will likely not thrive until there is more roster continuity. I like rookie RB Pierce, but as we all know, 90% of all RB’s do not move the win needle. 2022 is all about finding long term roster answers. The Next Quartile: The full week off is after this week’s game at Jacksonville, and the mini-bye is after their 8th game, a Thursday home game hosting Philly. Games 6-8 are good in terms of scheduling, but Houston will be underdogs all three times. Vegas is unreliable at home but better than their record indicates. Will Houston’s week off help? Tennessee comes to Houston off a rematch with Indy. Philly hosts physical Pittsburgh and then has the short week to come to Houston. If I trusted this staff, I’d say 1-3 or 2-2 is the likely result. Houston might be well on their way to drafting one of the top rookie QB’s for 2023.
INDY: Is it possible to fumble nine times in a four-game stretch (losing three)? Matt (red zone) Ryan has done just that, and he looks awfully old right now. The coaching has regressed as well, as there have been several game-altering decisions dating back to last November. They have been hindered by the loss of LB Leonard (won’t play again this Thursday), but 1-2-1 is underachieving. Indy sports a -6 turnover ratio and a 7-15 sack ratio. The pass D% remains soft. Are they out of the playoff race? Not at all, but they must play better. The Divisional leaders are just 2-2, and Indy’s schedule graded out before the season started as the AFC’s easiest. A confidence boost is needed. The Next Quartile: After Thursday, the next three games are home to Jacksonville, the rematch at Tennessee, and home to Washington. The AFC is tough, and it may be that only one AFC South team makes the playoffs. They must at least split the two Divisional games, and probably can’t afford to go 0-2 vs. Tennessee. In fact, the 10/23 game at Tennessee will be their 5th Divisional affair (0-2-1 thus far). Not only is Indy’s season potentially on the line this quartile, but coaching jobs are on the line as well. I think scheme changes must be made, soon.
JACKSONVILLE: Who didn’t see this coming? Wait, that’s what I said a year ago with Urban Meyer as the coach. The Jags actually played toe-to-toe with Philly, but after leading 14-0, served up five turnovers (four QB fumbles) and lost. The team is understandably going through growing pains but the defense looks really good, and Lawrence has been better this season. The Next Quartile: Jacksonville has home games vs. Houston and the NYG, a game in London vs. Denver, and a road game at Indy, where the Colts will want to atone for their 24-0 loss from week #2. Not even one of these opponents sports a QB that is dangerous, unless Russell Wilson gets his act together. Going better than 2-2 is possible, but only if Lawrence keeps turnovers down. The Jags were -20 in turnover margin in 2021. Eliminate mistakes and 4-4 should be the floor in this quartile.
KANSAS CITY: Tyreek Hill is a big loss, but it’s not as if KC’s roster was void of speed without him. The carefully rebuilt OL is already top tier (as I expected), and the defense has made stunning progress thus far in defending the run. That part has surprised me, and I will chart to see if it can continue. With that said, the point D is high. This is partly due to QB talent faced, but their pass D% is too high, and that’s what drives the NFL these days. KC held serve (barely) hosting the LA Chargers. More tests await the Chiefs. The Next Quartile: With the full bye week after game #7, the logical approach is to look at only the next three games as KC’s “quartile”. KC’s (early) extremely difficult schedule continues, as after hosting Vegas on Monday Night they stay home, but have a short week to prepare for Buffalo, a team bent on revenge from last January. The 7th game finds them at SF. I think going 2-1 would be fine, and even 1-2 with a victory over Vegas is only partially damaging. The winner of the Buffalo game takes the early lead (in my opinion) for the #1 seed. KC is playing great football, but might need to stay as healthy as possible to avoid some losses later on down the road. For me, I have it a coin flip that they go 2-1 or 1-2.
LAS VEGAS: I fully expected last week’s win vs. Denver. Vegas was somewhat unlucky not to be 2-1 entering the game. What I like is the run-pass balance, and of course, WR Adams adds a superstar dimension. What I dislike is the team having just five defensive sacks, this after upgrading the roster. The OL as we all know is hardly perfect, so the veteran Carr has had to compensate. This team can still make some noise in the playoff race, but only if both lines improve. The Next Quartile: There’s a bye after the week #5 MNF game at KC, so I wouldn’t call this a true quartile look for the staff, but games 6-9 represent an ideal opportunity to get back into the playoff chase, even if they lose at KC to fall to 1-4. They host Houston (Vegas with rest), go to suddenly vulnerable New Orleans, stay on the road to face a Jacksonville team who will NOT take a week off after playing in London, and then come home to face Indy. I certainly think 3-1 in this set of games is doable, putting them at 4-5 overall. Anything less probably means no playoff trip after the season. The bye after the KC game is ideal, and I look for Vegas to make some defensive adjustments after that game in order to jump start their pass rush. Will I be right?
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, and Justin Herbert. I can’t find a set of three tough QB’s better than this trio. Herbert, like Rivers, plays through enormous pain and won’t leave the lineup. Unfortunately, LA left tackle Slater is on IR, and the lead WR (Allen) has not played since a game one injury. Even more important than their healthy stat sheet are these two facts: 1st, Head Coach Staley has only made one “curious” decision thus far. 2nd, the special team unit has not had a fatal flaw. That’s unheard of. The Next Quartile: I’m going five games for this “quartile”, counting both road games at Atlanta and SF in the mix, with the huge Divisional host of KC in the 3rd quartile. 4-1 is possible, with this week’s game at Cleveland highly interesting. 6-3 is the goal, and puts them squarely in the playoff picture. It’s not automatic without better health.
MIAMI: I really like their Head Coach, who managed a 3-1 record despite a brutal 1st quartile set of opponents, but there are numerous warning signs awaiting this team, on and OFF the field. The run game remains bottom tier. I like the RB upgrades, but the young OL hasn’t progressed. The defense has a real shot at being better than what their stat sheet shows, especially with the coveted early new coach mini-bye happening as I type this. But a cloud is hanging over this team based on how they handled Tua. Regardless of the TYPE of injury he suffered, this game is TOO BRUTAL to put him back on the field three days after the Sunday injury. They gained a win in an enormous game vs. Buffalo, but lost respect, and now will be without Tua for a bit of time (or so it seems). Miami could have easily been 1-3 to this point, with Baltimore imploding, plus the crazy Buffalo victory. I love the speed on offense, and when fully healthy, the defense will be near or at top tier levels. The Next Quartile: Like with the Chargers (above), I’ll put their road games at Detroit and Chicago into the 2nd quartile. Miami could be favored all five games, unless road team Minny gets the nod in what could be a tossup game. Answering numerous questions since 9/29, can the new staff focus on making some scheme adjustments? We’ll know soon enough with this week’s game at suddenly 2-2 New York (Jets). Despite the softer schedule, I think 3-2 and not 4-1 is the most logical result. That would leave Miami at 6-3, a record they would have gladly taken prior to September. I’ll be watching for defensive improvement this entire quartile.
NEW ENGLAND: Bill Belichick had an outstanding game plan vs. GB, and just missed the big upset, but as an overall strategy I strongly dislike how the offense has been built in today’s wide-open game. You can easily see their lack of speed, plus their lack of trust in the pass game. QB Jones is fine, but he has no targets who can separate. I’m pleasantly surprised at the team’s 14 defensive sacks, but I’d call the overall unit just above average, and vulnerable to mobile QB’s. It’s early, but the -3 turnover ratio is something Belichick will not tolerate. The Next Quartile: The full bye is after their 9th game, so this is a five-game sample size. As detailed in the preseason, these games are very easy in terms of schedule difficulty. In this quartile, home games are vs. defensively challenged Detroit, offensively challenged Chicago and team challenged Indy. While the mobile Fields presents a challenge and the Lions are showing a dynamic offense, anything less than a 3-0 sweep may freeze the Pats out of the playoff chase. The road games are at Cleveland and at the Jets, with NE off a short week. 1-3 might become 6-3, but is that wishful thinking with Hoyer (turnover prone and no threat overall) and Zappe (college timing QB who is awfully raw, especially in pocket awareness)? The last two games have gone OVER the total. Under results may be coming soon.
NEW YORK JETS: The Jets are ecstatic about their 2-2 record. They obviously got lucky in the win at Cleveland, and down to Pittsburgh 20-10, benefitted by a careless throw from Kenny Pickett to win 24-20. Zach Wilson’s stat line was 18-36, with just one TD and two picks, and we should get used to some erratic performances all season long, but with this elevated WR group, the potential for the offense is huge, even with OL issues. The defense was awful in 2021. Modest improvement is already evident, and the Jets, expected to be competitive (by me) LATE in 2022 are already competitive to some extent right now. The Next Quartile: Games 5-9 are before their full bye week. I expected a 2-7 pre-bye week record, and the Jets could easily be winless right now. They host Miami without Tua and with off-field distractions, and host NE’s vanilla attack with the Pats off a MNF game. I think that’s ripe for a split, and so with a win at Denver, this could be a 4-5 start. I like the run D improvement, and the draft gave them four of the best players on their current roster. Still, the margin for error is slim, and turnovers will be their downfall at times. I like the focus of this team regardless of the fact there will be some setbacks now and then.
PITTSBURGH: I’m not sure why I keep having to defend Big Ben, but ANY QB behind this extremely shaky OL would have issues. I still expected more out of this rested offense hosting the Jets, and agreed with the move to Pickett in the 2nd half of that game. Poor OL drafting (well documented by me) along with key defensive injuries prevented at least a 2-2 initial quartile. The Next Quartile: Pitt’s four games before their full bye week are brutal. They play at Buffalo, host Tampa, play at Miami, and at Philly. Only the Tampa and Miami games appear to be winnable, and 0-4 is on the table. Last year Pitt finished 7-9-1, but with a -55 point ratio. That, plus losing a savvy QB, not to mention run D and OL issues, led me to believe regression was likely, even with Tomlin as the coach. Nothing has changed. 3-5 looks like the ceiling prior to the bye week.
TENNESSEE: Tennessee won a huge road game at Indy last week, and suddenly the December/January Divisional games vs. the Jags carry the most importance moving forward, especially if the Titans can win hosting Indy in the 2nd quartile. RB Henry needs more time to round into form (see below), and Tannehill has to stop his regression. More concerning is the large number of mistakes Coach Mike Vrabel has made of late. Counting the end of 2021, he’s negatively impacted four of their last ten games. He’s a rules specialist, but the fire drills this team is having on the field is a concern. The Next Quartile: With the full bye after this week, and the mini-bye after 11/17, I’m using games 5-10 as the 2nd quartile. Tennessee is in an awkward situation this week at Washington, but maybe they get lucky, as the Commanders are more dysfunctional than just about any other NFL team. Vrabel teams are 4-0 off the full bye, so a win hosting Indy likely puts the Colts away as a serious rival. Three of their next four games are on the road (Houston, KC, GB). The home game is vs. a rested Denver team. It’s possible RB Henry gets going after the full bye, but maybe more likely it’s after 11/17. We’ve seen him get red hot late in the season. This is a flawed team in a weak Division. 3-3, and 5-5 after this “quartile” is enough to give them a slight edge in the AFC North.
