Written by Ron- @ronacesports
Starting with the AFC East, here is my first look at each team’s 2023 schedule.
BUFFALO: All AFC East teams square off vs the AFC West and the NFC East. In addition, AFC teams will have only eight road games in 2023. As a reminder, each Divisional team will play three uncommon opponents. Buffalo’s three are vs. Jacksonville in London, vs. Tampa on Thursday Night, and at Cincy the next week, on Sunday Night. Buffalo is designated the home team in London, so they have only eight true home games. The overall schedule is quite difficult. Interestingly enough, they open facing the Jets and new QB Aaron Rodgers on MNF, then come home to host Las Vegas and their new QB, Jimmie Garoppolo. Game three is at Washington, where their QB could be Sam Howell. Buffalo is 14-44 vs. the spread after playing rival Miami. The next game is the one in London. Like many NFL teams, Buffalo didn’t want the early bye week after that, so they come home to face the NYG and former coordinator turned Head Coach, Brian DaBoll. The game after Cincy is their 3rd in a row in prime time, a host of Denver on MNF. They’ll stay home after that, but with less rest before facing the Jets a 2nd time. Buffalo is good off rest, and will clearly welcome the break between traveling to Philly (their 12th straight game) and then traveling to KC. There’s literally no easy part of their schedule. The final four games are Dallas, at the Chargers, NE, and at Miami. Buffalo’s win total is at 10.5, slanted to the overs. I HAVE set my Power #’s, which of course may change by September. For now, Buffalo’s power # is 31.
MIAMI: Miami is regarded as a team the NFL certainly wants to feature on TV, and they, like all of us, hope Tua can stay healthy all season long. Only one of their prime-time games however will be at home. They will have a +7 rest differential, and will not face any team coming off a full week off. Games 1-5 are tough. The go to LA to face the Chargers, go to NE (Sunday Night), host Denver, the team pass rusher Bradley Chubb used to play for, go to Buffalo, and host the NYG. 3-2 keeps them relevant, and might be important, with the next three games at Philly (Sunday Night), home to NE, and then a game in Germany vs. KC. The schedule is easier after the bye, but they will have to play at the Jets on “Black Friday”, meaning a short week road game. That gives them an extra two days before heading to Washington. Up next is a nice three-game December home stand, vs. Tennessee (MNF), the Jets and Dallas. Miami was 4-2 vs. the spread for their new staff as a home favorite, which is a good sign considering how poorly their history has been in that role. It’s critical that Tua remain healthy down the stretch, as from December on out they face some of the perceived best defenses in the NFL. The season closes with games at Baltimore and vs. Buffalo. Miami’s win total is a steady 9.5. My opening Power # is 27.
NEW ENGLAND: NE has had many recent seasons that saw them square off vs. an easier slate of opponents, but according to Warren Sharp, that changes in 2023, as he has them with the toughest 2023 slate. I base my schedule difficulty on my personal Power #’s, balanced out by scheduling quirks, notable injuries and suspensions. While I have yet to calculate who has the most difficult schedule, suffice to say that NE won’t have it easy. As an aside, WHEN you face an opponent does matter, and game placement was more profitable than ever imagined in 2022. There is good news. NE goes from a -10 rest differential to +5, and will play all Sunday games until 12/7, a perk thanks to the rhythm an all-Sunday schedule provides. They will not face any team off a full week of rest. Games 1-4 are quite difficult. They open vs. Philly, with the crowd excited as there will be a ceremony honoring Tom Brady. They stay home to host Miami, where new TE Mike Gesicki used to play. Games 3-4 are at the Jets and Aaron Rodgers and at Dallas. The game at Vegas (week six) should be interesting. That was the crazy lateral game where WR Myers literally gifted the Raiders and former NE coordinator Josh McDaniels a win. Now Myers is with Las Vegas, so this is awkward and crazy. With Divisional games vs. Buffalo (Bills 6-1 last seven in series) and at Miami up next, the focus had better be nearly perfect. NE gives up a home game by heading to Germany to face the Colts, and then gets what is likely a well-anticipated week off. I like the setup for the next two games, where they get two weeks to scheme before facing Daniel Jones and the NYG, then host the Chargers (14-2 last 16). Unfortunately, the schedule is rough after that, with the closing five games at Pitt on a short week (Thursday), home to KC on MNF, at Denver (short week off MNF, in altitude), another road game at Buffalo, and then a closing game vs. the Jets. NE’s win total is 7.5. My opening Power # is 26.
NEW YORK JETS: Did the NFL want Aaron Rodgers to officially become a Jet before the schedule release? You bet, and the Jets have quite a few scheduling perks. Listen to this: They have a +12 rest differential, with much of that advantage coming when facing their Divisional rivals. They face no teams off a full week of rest. They have a three-game home stand. Finally, their uncommon opponents are Houston, Cleveland and Atlanta. Games 1-6 are vs. some really good QB’s, including Buffalo (MNF), at Dallas (short week), KC (Sunday Night) and Philly (0-12 vs. the Eagles). As an aside, this would be the 1st meeting between Aaron Rodgers and Pat Mahomes. The other two games are also vs. teams with established QB’s and playoff dreams, NE, and Denver. The bye week will enable them to reset before a “road game” vs. the NYG. Playing three games in just a 12-day stretch (and four in an 18-day stretch) will test their stamina. That’s what happens between 11/6 and 11/24 when they host the Chargers on MNF, head to Vegas (SNF), stay on the road to play Buffalo, then turn around to face the Dolphins on the Friday after Thanksgiving. The final six games could propel the Jets to that elusive playoff berth. They stay at home to face Atlanta (+2 rest differential) and Houston, travel to face Miami (Dolphins off MNF), host Washington, go to Cleveland (short week, Thursday Night) and close at NE, but with extra rest. All six of these teams missed the playoffs in 2022. The Jets have six games at night, and unlike NE, must navigate the highs and lows that comes with a schedule that lacks rhythm and routine. The Jets win total has settled at 9.5, slanted to the over. My opening Power # is 27, which may seem a bit low to some people.
Continuing with the AFC North here is my first look at each team’s 2023 schedule
BALTIMORE: All AFC North teams play the AFC South and the NFC West. Literally besieged by injury the past two years, the Ravens hope for better health in 2023, especially at QB. With Miami, the Chargers and up and coming Detroit as their three uncommon opponents, the margin for winning and losing in 2023 is tighter than it was with their 2022 4th place schedule. The NFL gave the Ravens three Divisional road games in the 1st five weeks. I “expect” wins hosting Houston and Indy, so the goal is 2-1 in those road games and 4-1 heading to London to face Tennessee, which is conveniently a “road” game for them, preserving their nine-game home schedule. Four of their next five games are at home, so as long as they survive the London trip then the Ravens could lead the AFC North heading into Thanksgiving. The toughest games in this stretch are hosting Detroit, Seattle and Cincy (Thursday Night), but this really should be 8-3 (or more) if they remain healthy. While the opponents are rougher after that, note that the Ravens have ten days before playing at the LA Chargers, 14 days before hosting the Rams, and they close at home vs. Miami and Pittsburgh. The two tougher games are at improving Jacksonville (Sunday Night) and at SF on MNF. The overall rest differential is +9. Note that their 5th Divisional game is 11/16, which could affect their ability to control their own Divisional destiny. Like in 2022, Baltimore’s season win total is rising. It opened at 7.5 at -150 and is currently 9.5, at -140. My opening Power # has been set at 29.
CINCINNATI: Cincy almost made it to two straight Super Bowls, which is amazing. Clearly, the franchise appears to be on the upswing, but the AFC is loaded this year, so a 3rd straight deep playoff run is hardly a guarantee. The good news is that they will travel the fewest miles of any team. The bad news is their uncommon opponent schedule reads Buffalo (Sunday Night), Minnesota, and at KC. On 9/25 Cincy will host the Rams on MNF. As this is a recent Super Bowl rematch, the crowd and team will be highly motivated. That creates a short week potential letdown spot on the road at Tennessee, but after that, the Bengals could go 2-0 before their bye week, heading to Arizona and then hosting Seattle. While SF hosts Cincy, the Bengals will be off their bye week, AND, SF will be off a MNF road game at Minny. Cincy will have a short week to travel to physical Baltimore (Thursday Night), but that gives them ten days before hosting Pitt. Their 2nd MNF affair is at Jacksonville, which won’t be easy. Cincy closes hosting Minny, at Pitt (Saturday), at KC, and home to Cleveland. Cincy has a win total of 11.5, tied for the most in the NFL. My opening Power # is set at 30.5.
CLEVELAND: Cleveland’s 2022 campaign did not go as expected, but there may be reason for optimism in 2023 IF QB Watson returns to his pre-suspension form. Listen to these advantages. Cleveland faces no team off a full bye, leading to a +11 rest differential. They have games vs. the six worst teams in 2022 according to final records. There is one scheduling stretch where they go 33 days between road games. It wasn’t just QB, but the defense let them down in 2022. They’ve since upgraded at defensive coordinator and recently traded for solid pass rusher Za’Darius Smith. Games 1-2 may set the tone, as the Browns host Divisional rival Cincy and then travel to Divisional rival Pitt. The goal is a split but yes, that’s not a guarantee. From 9/24 until 10/22 the Browns host Tennessee and Baltimore, have a week off, then host SF. The teams are not easy, but the pacing is superlative. The next goal is to go 2-1 in games at Indy and Seattle, and home to Arizona. I don’t know if Cleveland is good enough to go 2-1, but if they fail during 2023 this schedule can’t be held accountable. Like with Baltimore, the Browns will have just one more Divisional game after mid-November. What’s Cleveland’s travel plans for playing at Denver on 11/26 and then playing at the LA Rams on 12/3? While the pacing is ideal for their 1st 13 games, the opponents are not easy. That changes after their host of Jacksonville (certainly another winnable/tossup game), as games 14-16 are vs. Chicago, at Houston, and then vs. the Jets on Thursday night. Remember last year’s game? Cleveland led 30-17 with under two minutes to play and with a 1% win probability, gave away the game and lost 31-30. Cleveland closes at Cincy. Based on this schedule layout, the Browns could easily have something to play for in the finale. Cleveland’s win totals were mostly off the board in 2022 due to the Watson situation, and my Power # was set in light pencil. For 2023, Cleveland’s win total is 9.5, but the under is at -140 and in some places, even higher. My opening Power # is 25.5.
PITTSBURGH: Pittsburgh had a top three draft class in April and hopes that springboards them to a playoff appearance in 2023. My top draft classes all improved their record above expectations last year, but the 2023 NFL draft has fewer ready to go players. Three of four prime time games are at home, including an early MNF game hosting Cleveland. Pitt is 30-10-1 at home on MNF. In fact, Pitt opens at home vs. dangerous SF, which is also quite rare (1st home opener since 2014). This is another AFC team that benefits from a positive rest differential (+7) and faces no teams off a full week of rest. Pitt finished 9-8 last year, but the point differential was -38, so they must improve as a team just to reach 9-8 in 2023. With QB Pickett now in his 2nd year that may be possible, as long as T.J. Watt stays healthy. Game three at Las Vegas could be interesting, and it is a short week for the Steelers. With stability at coaching, Pitt has a healthy resume of situational factors to consider. One of them is their lack of success as an October road favorite. They’ll likely be favored at Houston on 10/1, and that’s a game right after a trip to Vegas. It’s also worth checking to see if they will be favored at Cleveland, traditionally a series with bad blood. The good news is that between these two games the Steelers have three consecutive home games. With good health and modest QB improvement I would expect this team to be in the playoff mix heading into winnable December home games vs. Arizona and NE (Thursday Night, so it’s a short week for Belichick and his team has to travel). That’s a perk, as is the extra time to prep before heading to Indy. They close with three tough games, so win equity better have been built up. Those games are vs. Cincy, and at Seattle and Baltimore. Pittsburgh’s win total has been set at 8.5. My opening Power # has been set at 26.
Continuing with the AFC South here is my first look at each team’s 2023 schedule
HOUSTON: All AFC South teams play the tough AFC North and the easier NFC South. Houston has its 4th coach in as many years, which means additional roster and coaching turnover. Stability takes time, but the Texan’s upgraded with Ryans, and the post-2022 roster decision-making has (mildly) improved. Due to the NFL’s new policy of not insisting teams play on Thursday (upgrading intentionally the Amazon package), the Texan’s benefit, with no games at night or on Thursday. That should enable them to be in rhythm in game planning, which is a good thing for a new staff. Another perk is having an early bye week (after game #6). New staffs have much to think about in their initial year and little time to assess and make concrete adjustments. Having an early bye makes the task easier. There is bad news, as three of their 1st four opponents are at Baltimore, at Jacksonville and vs. Pitt. The OL better be ready, as sack pressure from these teams will be stout. In an interesting twist, games 5-8 (with the bye week in the middle) are all vs. the NFC South. Perceived as a relatively weak Division with some untested QB’s, we should get a good read as to Houston’s in-season progress hopes. Playing at Cincy will be tough, but after that, Houston plays three straight home games, vs. Arizona, Jacksonville and Denver. Therefore, seven of their recent eight games should be at least competitive, if not winnable. Of course, we do not know what Houston’s QB rotation will be, and that position could be a work in progress. Houston’s only two game road trip follows, at the Jets and at Tennessee. They will stay at home for two of their final three games. It was all gloom and doom for them in 2022, (at least that was my stance) and I loved fading Houston’s and Lovie Smith’s win total. This year brings hope in a number of ways, so let’s see how fast the new staff can mesh this roster together. Given the enormous roster turnover, that’s the major danger. Houston opened with a win total of 5.5, but we’re now seeing 6.5 in some places. I’m still being cautious on my opening Power #, which I’ve tentatively set at just 20.
INDY: Last year at this time most “respected” analysts felt Indy’s schedule was the easiest in the AFC. That stimulated lots of action on OVER their win total and in winning their division, which thankfully I was not interested in. Indy has a new staff now, but once again, their schedule is considered the AFC’s easiest (4th easiest overall according to Warren Sharp). Indy lacks QB star power, so the NFL has them playing no night games or Thursday games. They will travel to Germany as the “road” team facing NE. In addition to therefore having just seven true road games, the Colts face just four 2022 playoff teams (Baltimore, Cincy, the Jags twice, Tampa), and the Bucs may be rebuilding in 2023. How fast can the new staff (and new QB) be ready to go? This is critical, as they have four Divisional contests in their 1st six games. They can achieve 3-3 with a split vs. the Jags (home team has dominated), plus a 2-1 record at Houston and vs. the Rams and Titans. Games 7-9 are vs. Cleveland and New Orleans, and at Carolina. It’s a schedule made for some success, but the QB and the insistence of playing a soft pass defense keeps me grounded. In addition, the bye week (after Germany) comes late. As an aside, all new coaches in the past who had a late bye week had the mini-bye to partially catch their breath. With no Thursday games, Indy will not have a mini-bye. While the schedule has been favorable thus far, Indy would be in some trouble if they haven’t built up win equity. Games 12-14 are tough, reading at Tennessee and Cincy, plus a host of Pitt. Games 15-17 offer hope, with games at Atlanta and home to Vegas (6th year in a row they meet) and Houston. Going 1-4-1 in the Division a year ago was a shock. Indy must rectify that to be relevant, even with this nice schedule. Indy’s season win total is set at 6.5, slanted to the over. I have set my opening Power # at 21.5.
JACKSONVILLE: Wait, there won’t be an Urban Meyer appreciation day in Jacksonville? Free agency, coaching changes, and a 4th place schedule propelled the Jags to a successful 2022. Maybe it’s sustainable given the Divisional competition, but the three uncommon opponents the Jags will face are KC, Buffalo and SF, and that’s a severe scheduling markup. The Buffalo game is the 2nd of two straight on London, which is new for the NFL. That could lead to fatigue coming home (no bye), with the Jags facing Indy and then on a short week, heading to New Orleans to face the Saints on a Thursday Night. At least that gives them ten days before traveling to Pitt, which is not an easy place to play but the Jags are 7-6 at their site. The ceiling sure seems like 6-5 before they host Cincy on MNF. Amazingly, it’s their 1st MNF game since 2011. Thus, the home crowd should be rocking. That gives them a short week before going to Cleveland. The Jags beat Baltimore on a successful two-point try last year. The rematch is Sunday Night in Jacksonville. The Jags certainly won’t be sneaking up on anyone in 2023 but could close with some wins as they head to Tampa, host Carolina and finish 2023 at Tennessee. I like the roster but am a bit scared about the schedule. The win total for the Jags is anywhere from 10.5 (heavy slant to the over), down to 9.5, with the over at -140 or higher. My opening Power # set is at 27.5, which might be a tad high.
TENNESSEE: Tennessee may or may not be in roster retooling mode with lots of veterans axed this offseason, but thus far, QB Tannehill and RB Henry remain. This means they could still be 2023 Divisional contenders, and there are perks in the schedule that are in their favor. They have a +11 rest differential, play no teams off a full bye week, and very likely will play no cold weather games unless it’s at home (five of last seven games are at home). Three of their last four games are within the Division, and two of the games are vs. Houston. That could give the Titans an excellent opportunity to control their own destiny. They have two items that do not work in their favor. 1st, their uncommon opponents are tricky. At least they’re all home games, but the teams are the Chargers, Dolphins (MNF) and Seahawks. They also have a three-game road stretch, although there are ten days between playing at Pitt (Thursday Night) and Tampa, with Jacksonville the 3rd game. Games 1-6 before the bye week might all be tossups! It’s an alternating road and home sequence, with the 6th game in London vs. the Ravens. Tennessee is the designated home team for that one. They opted for the bye after that, giving them rest time before facing Atlanta and Arthur Smith, Tennessee’s former offensive coordinator. It’s later in the year, so revenge is less “important” but the Titans were eliminated by Jacksonville in the final game a year ago, with Tennessee at noticeably less than full strength. Winning hosting Carolina and Indy (11/26 and 12/3) could set them up nicely for a late playoff push. The Titans have had their way vs. Indy of late. Mike Vrabel is a veteran head Coach, so if they navigate through that early tough schedule and don’t implode on the big road trip then controlling their own destiny is likely. Any QB injury or further expulsion of talent would make this more of a challenge. The Titan’s season win total is 7.5. My opening Power # is 24.
Continuing with the AFC West here is my first look at each team’s 2023 schedule
DENVER: All AFC West teams play the AFC East and the NFC North. There’s a new sheriff in town, and Sean Payton has the faithful excited. It’s another 4th place schedule, and the uncommon opponents are very likely to be underdogs to this team as they read home to Washington, home to Cleveland, and at Houston. Can Payton fix Russell Wilson? Denver went 1-5 vs. the AFC West in 2022. That’s mission #1. They open vs. Vegas in what could be a tone-setting game for both teams. They play KC weeks six and eight. Can they erase a 14-game losing streak vs. the Chiefs? If not, playoff tiebreakers might hurt them, especially in this loaded Conference. One key game is 10/8 hosting Aaron Rodgers and the Jets. While the Jets will have just faced KC and Mahomes (1st Rodgers-Mahomes meeting), it’s also deposed Head Coach Hackett now facing his former team as the current offensive coordinator for the Jets. I’m concerned about the early schedule for Denver even though they could be favored in many an early game, but the bye week will give them a chance to reset. Both team and coach have been efficient off full rest, but the challenge is daunting, going to Buffalo on MNF! They may need to go 2-0 hosting Minny (Denver short week) and Cleveland (Sunday Night), with consecutive road games at Houston, the Chargers and the Lions up next. Coaching killed them a year ago, with numerous late game miscues. Going 5-12 with a -72 point ratio suggests that this team was better than that, but I will need to weigh Payton’s impact vs. a schedule pacing that might be tricky. Denver needs to erase a dismal late game record, and given that the final two games are vs. the Chargers and at Vegas, they’ll again have the added incentive of fixing the Divisional record. Can Denver take advantage of facing the easier slate of uncommon opponents? Denver’s win total is 8.5, My opening Power # set is at 24.5.
KANSAS CITY: KC may not have a great recent point spread record, but coach and QB are elite when the game is on the line. Good luck to both of them in 2023, as the NFL has them in many an uncomfortable scheduling situation. After +9 and +7 rest differentials, the 2023 ledger reads -13 (see below for details). The schedule is considered the 3rd toughest, and includes three uncommon opponents (Cincy, Jacksonville, Philly), all with playoff revenge! Not necessarily a fast starter, games at the Jags and at Minny are tough, especially with the Minny game coming after the matchup at the Jets between Mahomes and Rodgers. Games 6-8 are their 1st inside the AFC West. That pacing is nice, and I expect 2-1 or 3-0. KC heads to Germany to face Miami before their week off. If Tua is healthy, that could be interesting, especially with former Chief Tyreek Hill on the Dolphins. Both Philly and KC will be fully rested before KC hosts them on MNF. TV ratings should be wild. Vegas tends to give KC some good battles. The Chiefs will have a short week of preparation before that road game. That’s the 1st of six games in a row where KC is at a rest differential disadvantage. The game at GB (2nd of two in a row for KC on the road) has the Packers with a +3 rest advantage. Buffalo will be off a full week of rest. KC has eight days before heading to NE on MNF, but the Pats have eleven days. Once again, KC has to play Vegas after playing on MNF. That seems unfair, plus the Raiders will have a four-day advantage. Finally, with the Vegas game on MNF, KC will have just six days to prepare for Cincy, while the Bengals have eight days. Given how amazingly close this series has been, even that small edge helps. KC closes at the Chargers, and LA lost a pair of games to the Chiefs by a field goal each time in 2022. It’s hard to bet against the Chiefs, but this is their toughest schedule challenge in quite some time. Their win total is at 11.5, trending to the over (-140 or more). My opening Power # is set at 32, the highest in the NFL.
LAS VEGAS: It was fun to fade Vegas in 2022 as they had a very bad Pythagorean Theorem figure, which partially included a perfect 4-0 in overtime games. That, plus a horrific 2022 draft class put them in fade mode. 2023 could be better, as last year’s 6-11 record came with just a -23 point ratio, indicating closer to 8-9. Navigating what is considered the NFL’s 4th toughest schedule won’t be easy however. The weak spot offensively is their OL. It will be heavily tested early on vs. the likes of Denver, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, the Chargers, GB and NE. The home games are vs. Pitt (Sunday Night), GB (MNF) and NE (short week). 3-3 looks like the ceiling. The GB game features WR Adams vs. his former team. Two road games follow, at potentially improved Chicago, and on MNF, at NFC North favorite Detroit. Las Vegas has not fared well hosting their unfamiliar NFC opponents. In addition to GB, the NYG and Minnesota Vikings, two 2022 playoff teams are coming to Las Vegas. TE Darren Waller is now a NYG. The good news is that the NYG game starts a stretch where they play at home five times, with one road game, plus the bye week. That’s 35 days without a road game. Unfortunately, the home games feature solid opponents (Jets, KC, Minny, Chargers), and the road game at Miami is not easy. Vegas plays on Christmas at KC, but at least they have eleven days before that game. They close at Indy and home to Denver. Just two spots show unfavorable scheduling, but despite the Pythagorean Theorem value, facing a tough set of early pass rushers as well as the overall schedule difficulty has me worried. LA has a season win total of 7.5, with the under about -150. I/m seeing a couple of 7’s pop up. My opening Power # is at 23.5.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: There’s no game vs. Jacksonville to make amends for blowing a 27-0 lead, so LA must create their own motivation for going deeper this playoff season. The 1st step would be to fix their 2-4 Divisional record, but four of their 2023 Divisional games are in the final five weeks of the season. LA’s uncommon opponents pits them against three veteran QB’s (Tennessee/Tannehill, Dallas/Prescott, Baltimore/Jackson). Their only two-game road stand is early, at Tennessee and Minny. Their bye week is very early, after just four games. That gives former Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore ample time to scheme to face Dallas on MNF. Unfortunately, that means a short week before going to face powerful KC. Later, they face Rodgers and the NYJ on the road on MNF, leading to another short week after that vs, improving Detroit. With a road game at GB next, this is beginning to look like 5-5, with a 6-4 ceiling. It also looks like a split at best playing physical Baltimore and then traveling to NE. As noted, four Divisional games remain, with the 5th game a host of Buffalo. Did LA improve this offseason? If so, late Divisional wins could mean a repeat playoff berth. If not, this schedule seems difficult enough to say that returning to the playoffs is hardly a given. The Chargers have a season win total of 9.5. My opening Power # is set at 28.
