By Ron Marmalefsky
Every year at this time the NFL provides us with week one surprises. Sometimes the surprises represent a foretelling of teams that are actually better or worse than we thought. But at other times people overreact, and think a huge win or shocking loss means more than it really does. Remember SF a few years ago? They shocked the Rams week one but finished 2-14. Remember Jacksonville in 2020? They shocked Indy in week one and lost their next 15 games.
At least we had a preseason this year, but be careful of what you saw on Sunday. Chicago “upset” San Francisco but they didn’t play all that well for much of the game and were quite lucky to face SF when they did, with Trey Lance so early in his career. The LA Chargers extracted revenge on Vegas, but the timing of that game was lucky as well. There were no major upsets in my opinion, yet in the Circa Millions contest it’s been reported that 45% of the entrants are already eliminated. It’s just week one. Some teams treated the preseason too light, and other teams had kicking woes. Corrections will be made.
Once again, I’m pleased to say that my preseason work paid off. My top three plays were Chicago, Buffalo and Pittsburgh. For those who have seen some of the videos I was on, my stance on those teams were widely known. All three plays would easily have been a best bet most weeks. I had two other plays, Dallas +3 vs. Tampa, which lost, and the LA Chargers -3 -125 vs. Vegas and in one money line parlay (with KC), which won. These two plays were far below the top three in strength, as happens often for me when assessing week one action. My leans were 1-1, with New England vs. Miami and Atlanta vs. New Orleans.
Speaking of New England, that’s the only game where my Power Numbers were likely off base. It’s only one game, but I had these teams rated nearly identical. Adjustments have been made. I’m making very few adjustments otherwise. I’d advise readers to be careful as well when making week one adjustments. In many ways 2022 results seemed more predictable as compared to previous seasons. Maybe this year we won’t have too large of an overreaction Monday?
With that as a preamble, here’s my assessment of the week one results.
LA Chargers at KC: Some people disagree, but not all revenge games are created equal. If the LA Chargers had faced Vegas a month later, I think the game would have been a tossup and a no play for me. Week one revenge, especially with revenge that cost the Chargers a playoff berth is very real. The Chargers benefitted from a +3 turnover ratio and held on for the win. My assessment and Power Number for this team did not change, but I got my wish in that Khalil Mack might stimulate doormat Charger sack totals. LA had six (31 all last season). KC played a depleted Arizona team missing offensive and defensive starters but I was impressed with Mahomes, and let’s face it, the team retains plenty of NFL speed. The games get tougher right away.
Miami at Baltimore: Many people, including myself initially felt the sudden firing of Brian Flores was a bad thing. The new coach has grown on me, and as I’ve stated this Summer, they’re started to build the offensive roster to fit Tua. While I now feel I was too low on their opening Power Number, I don’t want to overreact, as a) Miami has often beat New England at home, and b) the OL is still a major issue, and the run holes were still not evident. But that scheme shows promise. One more thing: Miami correctly used analytics in going for the 1st down on 4th and seven from New England’s 42 with just 24 seconds left in the 1st half. If the play fails, there’s 18 seconds left and the way their defense was playing, no damage done. Well done. Baltimore had numerous injuries as well but facing the Jets helped. I didn’t learn anything of value here except that no RB stepped up in the absence of Dobbins and Gus Edwards, two guys who missed 2021 and still are not ready to return to action.
NYJ at Cleveland: Joe Flacco is never going to move the needle, so the Jets are in a holding pattern until Zach Wilson gets healthy and gets more game action. I do like the WR talent on this team, but they are going to look pretty bad most of September and October with a below par OL and a really rough schedule. The more wins Cleveland steals early the better, but I actually came away disappointed with QB Brissett. I’m not changing anything right now. I spoke about rookie kicker Cade York in my 32-page NFL preview. Cleveland has a tendency to play close games. His accuracy might pay off.
Washington at Detroit: QB’s switching teams sometimes need time to acclimate. Wentz was decent, but lead WR McLaurin had but two receptions and Wentz nearly lost the game with turnovers. No changes for me at this time. Detroit, the 2022 version reminds me a lot of Detroit, the 2021 version. The 1st team to score on Sunday, they also fell way behind and once again picked up yards and points in garbage time. The hope is by season’s end they will “learn” how to win. It’s just one game, but you can feel the excitement when RB Swift has the ball. Can he stay healthy? Again, no changes on my end.
Indy at Jacksonville: Indy should have lost at Houston and in retrospect, I should have seen a close game coming. I wrote about Houston’s productive August, while at the same time noting how Indy made no apparent defensive scheme changes this past offseason. RB Taylor is elite, but RB’s as a whole don’t move the win needle like other positions do. I downgraded Indy just a notch. Can they win the AFC South? Yes, but without LB Leonard they are not going to scare opposing offenses, even Houston’s. The Jags likely should be 1-0, but Lawrence showed he needs more time to develop, which shouldn’t come as a surprise. I will not be changing my opinion on them.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans: Am I overreacting or was my opening Power Number too low on Tampa? Unlike in Green Bay, Tom Brady had two veteran, savvy WR’s to throw to in Julio Jones and Mike Evans, and he even had Chris Godwin for half the game. What I didn’t expect was how sharp the defense looked (21-42 passing allowed). I’ve moved up my number, but I still think we’ll see some regression from the Bucs with their OL missing important parts. Keep this in mind: Tamps scored just 19 points, and settled for five field goal attempts in the 1st half. Rob Gronkowski, you are missed. I’d advise not to overreact to New Orleans, positive or negative. The Divisional game at Atlanta was tricky. I’m monitoring the situation for several reasons. Winston was careful, but was he conservative because the new coach is defensive-minded? Why did the run defense look so bad? The sack ratio was 0-4. The OL lost a player or two, but this was a bad start. I am waiting for more data before I react.
Carolina at NYG: I had no idea who would win between Cleveland and Carolina. Mayfield looked uncomfortable at first, which isn’t too surprising. RB McCaffrey looked really sharp in his cuts. I won’t read anything into the week one run defense, as Cleveland is top tier running the football. Allowing sacks was expected, but disappointing. No changes right now as I await Baker getting more comfortable with his new team, but losing the way they did means that the margin for a rebound just got tougher. Did the NYG get instantly better with the new staff or did they just play an opponent (Tennessee) that is nothing special? Partially yes on getting better, as just having the old staff out of the room gave them a win shot. Definitely yes that Tennessee let them back in the game. Despite a 1-5 sack ratio (scary), I moved them up a bit because I like how the staff handled Daniel Jones (17-21) and was encouraged by the work of RB Barkley, now two years removed from injury.
New England at Pittsburgh: There were reasons to like and dislike New England coming into the season. I’ve never liked the lack of speed on this team and it showed up on both sides of the ball week one. I downgraded them, but let’s not overreact just yet. The defense only allowed 20 points, and just 13 not counting the ill-fated late TD in the 1st half. Games 1-4 are awfully tough, but if there’s too much of an overreaction then value is possible when the schedule lightens up. Pittsburgh was well-prepared for Cincy, but with Mike Tomlin, are you surprised? But listen to this! Instead of upgrading them, I’m thinking they did not look as good as people may think. They had a stout 7-1 sack advantage and a 5-0 turnover ratio yet it took a blocked extra point and a bad snap on a short field goal to get the win. Trubisky wasn’t helpful when Pitt had the big lead. Now T.J. Watt could be out significant time. This will be an above average defense, but I came away from this game thinking Pitt was certainly no better than what I thought leading into the game.
Atlanta at the LA Rams: Like with Houston, I was pleased with how I assessed Atlanta in my NFL preview. I like the work they got in August and it seems like Mariota is a nice fit. With a shocking 4-0 sack ratio there’s hope, but finding a way to lose that game hosting New Orleans showed the Falcons as yet another team that has to “learn” how to win. No changes for me. I fully expected the Rams to lose hosting Buffalo, and the game played out exactly the way they I scripted it, which I never take for granted. Given the roster, this is a 9-8 team, and they played like one. The good news? They won’t face Buffalo again this regular season. LA is a vulnerable team that has to fix OL issues but I already had them properly evaluated.
Seattle at San Fran: In Seattle’s preview I wondered if the ceiling was keeping games close and the floor was a bottom three offense. Seattle had a good game plan in place but every win this season could be hard fought. If they lose Jamal Adams to injury, it would weaken an already bottom tier secondary. I have no changes to my Seattle seasonal outlook at this time.
I must repeat what I’ve been saying about SF. The ceiling is high, but September was always going to present challenges, as Trey Lance has started two games since 2000 (college and NFL), the OL is missing parts, and DB Ward is out for a few weeks. My lower opening Power Rating was accurate, and facing a decent defensive team (Chicago) was something that seemed to give me an edge in matchup analysis. Losing RB Mitchell is a blow, as Jeff Wilson is a downgrade. They get a break week two facing Seattle off short rest, but the learning curve is very real. NOTE: The coaching staff was upfront to its players and fans about how this would play out. SF is a work in progress. My assessment of them needs no changing.
Cincinnati at Dallas: This section is fun to do. Cincy was everything I expected week one. Joe Burrow was coming off a medical procedure and had no preseason. Contrary to previous years, Coach Taylor rested his starters for the most part, and August work was limited. The OL, just like KC from 2021 is under construction. Chemistry takes time, just like with KC. The Super Bowl loser dynamic added another layer, and finally, facing Mike Tomlin and the Pitt defense didn’t help. So, let’s downgrade them, right? NO, don’t overreact. While the schedule is going to present quite a few challenges in terms of pacing, there will be times Cincy has “normal” rest, and the team is certainly no worse than I thought. Just look at the Pittsburgh notes above to see how close they came to stealing this win. As for Dallas, feel free to overreact! The OL is a mess. The WR room was full of unknowns. Zeke Elliott adds nothing to the pass game. Now Dak Prescott is out for 6-8 weeks. I used the word passive when describing their offseason and approach in the draft. Passive led them to the roster they currently have.
Houston at Denver: On the one hand, Houston is better than initially thought, with several veterans defensively and a QB who may just be a bit underrated. My August assessment of this team showed promise, something that scared me as I hold an under five-win ticket. But the saving grace is having Lovie Smith as their coach. His coaching cost them a win. He’s stuck in 1999, punting at curious times. I’ve upgraded them a bit, but won’t necessarily run to the window to play them too much with Lovie at the helm. As for Denver, what did we witness on Monday Night? Denver had the ball with 3:21 left on the clock, needing a field goal to win or at least take the lead. They also had all three timeouts. Time management courses are needed, as the new staff showed no urgency at all. They NEVER used a timeout until twenty seconds remained, and somehow thought it was a good idea to try a 64-yard field goal after letting the forty second play clock tick down to one second. Why not use your timeouts? Why did the pace of play slow down? The comments made after the game worry me, as the coach didn’t take ownership for the lack of late game vision. One more thing: It was pointed out that the staff barely played some of their starters in August. With a new QB and new staff in place, that didn’t see like a wise move. All that said and I’m not going to overact just yet, but of all the new coaches, this staff graded out as perhaps the worst for week #1.
Arizona at Las Vegas: Several teams qualify, but let’s mark Arizona as the team with the worst defensive performance week one. They never sacked Mahomes, and gave up five TD passes. 11-6? That was last year. Because it’s Andy Reid and KC, I won’t overreact too much, but yes, Arizona does get downgraded. I liked what I saw from Las Vegas with one exception. Like I explained above (LA Chargers), Vegas could have won this game. They only lost by five points despite a -3 turnover differential and producing a shocking 0-6 sack ratio. WR Adams? He was electric. Good QB’s like Justin Herbert will have their way with the Raider’s secondary, but only playing in a tough Division could hold them back. The one issue: That OL is a liability.
Chicago at Green Bay: Chicago “upset” SF, but to me this was a tossup game. I expected QB Fields to run hot and cold, having issues making second reads, but escaping the pocket and running and/or passing for a splash play at other times. Chicago’s secondary is better than SF’s. Because this was week one, the only area I gave SF the edge was having Deebo Samuel on the roster. But don’t overreact, as we don’t really know if Chicago’s defense will regress a bit with some roster and coaching deletions (I think it will), and the OL won’t protect Fields all that much in obvious pass situations. No changes on my end. As for GB, we’ve seen this movie before. The Packers have had some awful early games, including 2021’s opener and things worked out just fine. Still, two things worry me. 1st, there’s no WR Adams to bail Rodgers out. 2nd, the OL needs to get healthy to give Aaron more time, as his current WR’s are not perfect route runners. I’ll downgrade them a little, but I also expect the defense to get better and play better vs. QB’s who are not as experienced and as accurate as is QB Cousins.
Tennessee at Buffalo: Tennessee was the AFC’s #1 seed a year ago but was rated just 15th in my Power Numbers. Other handicappers I respect seemed to agree. Because they came into 2022 with no significant changes, they still looked like just a slightly above average team to me, residing in a well below average Division. Their 5-1 sack ratio was better than expected, but their pass D% was poor. That fire drill before attempting the game-winning field goal was poor coaching. One more play downfield was needed. I’m breaking no news in saying that Buffalo was a trendy pick as the #1 team in all of the NFL. Careful roster building elevated the offense first, and then the defense, with now four pass rushers added since 2020. Only injuries could cause me to change my opinion on this team.
Minnesota at Philly: Culture change? I liked Mike Zimmer but in 2022, playing football is fun again for the Vikings. I expected top five sack numbers heading into 2022. Minny got four vs. Aaron Rodgers. The pass D% is still an issue. I am inclined to slightly raise their profile, but holding serve at home vs. GB doesn’t mean they win the Division just yet. Caution, please. Philly took off in their 2022 season opener the same way they ended the 2021 regular season. They tailored the offense to QB hurts and it shows, while also added WR A.J. Brown (10-155) to diversify the pass game. Unfortunately, splash plays continue to be the norm against this Eagle defense. That has to stop. I made no changes to my assessment of the Eagles.
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