Super Bowl First Look
By Ron Marmalefsky (@ronacesports)
OPENING STATEMENT: We’re down to just one game before the 2022 NFL season comes to a close. In this week’s article, I provide a first look at Philadelphia and Kansas City.
FIRST LOOK AT PHILADELPHIA:
Philly was the #1 seed in the NFC. Projected to finish in a dead heat with Dallas in the NFC East, the Eagles unleashed Jalen Hurts early and the results were well above expectations. Philly’s only loss with Hurts as the starter came 11/14, in a home game on Monday Night vs. Washington. The offense wasn’t bad, but in that game the defense, and specifically the run defense hit it’s low mark of the season. Washington held the ball for over forty minutes in the 32-21 victory over the Eagles. But Hurts hasn’t lost since, as the two late season defeats were when he was on the sidelines.
Many people are glossing over Philly’s playoff run, claiming that all they did was defeat an overrated NYG team and a team (SF) which lost any chance of competing when Brock Purdy went down. I’m not ready to diminish what Philly has accomplished, but I do understand that the Eagles faced just two playoff teams all season long outside of their own Division. Now, let’s take a look at what they did accomplish during 2022, as I briefly break down the various units on their team.
Pass Attack: No one expected Jalen Hurts to complete nearly 67% of his passes in his second full season as the starter. He was ultra-careful with the ball, and distributed the ball nicely to A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and solid TE Dallas Goedert. Hurts was sacked an average number of times. Under his leadership, Philly scored 21 or more points all but once.
Run Attack: The rush attack is varied and lethal. Hurts carried the ball an average of more than ten times per game, with more than solid results. Despite that, I don’t believe he is a “take off and run the ball guy” when things initially break down. Many of the runs are by design. His OL gives him the luxury of being able to make solid reads, and that OL is a terrific run-blocking unit. I like the way RB Sanders is used, and not abused in the run game. With Kenneth Gainwell (and occasionally Boston Scott) as more than capable backups, Sanders has been kept fresh. His stout 4.9 yards-per-carry is impressive.
Pass Rush: Counting the playoffs, Philly has 78 defensive sacks. Their regular season tally has been beaten only by the Chicago Bears (twice) of close to forty years ago. This more than solid organization (see below) has had a longstanding policy of stocking the team with as many as ten potential pass rushers, rotating them in and out of the lineup to keep everyone fresh. I’m not sure this has been ever done before, but the Eagles had four players achieve eleven or more regular season sacks. That relentless pressure has continued during the playoffs.
Run Defense: Maybe it’s a function of game score and game flow, but I’d like to see more teams try to run on the Eagles. In the opening game, the Lions ran 28-181 (35 points). It wasn’t until game #8 (Houston) that any other opponent ran more than 26 times vs. the Eagles. Washington ran 49 times. In general, most teams amped up the # of pass plays vs. Philly instead of committing to the run. SF’s elite RB McCaffrey had some success, even after the 49ers by necessity became unable to pass the ball. With KC and Mahomes more of a pass 1st team, this could continue, but I will be curious to see if KC spots something in their own run game that could take the pressure off having to block all of Philly’s pass rushers. SPECIAL NOTE: Adding Ndamukong Suh to the team was a master stroke of greatness. One week before his arrival, the Eagles were allowing about 5.2 yards-per-carry. While not perfect, the team has allowed 4.25 per carry since then (regular season).
Pass Defense: The 63% allowed was at or near the top ten in the NFL. They have been opportunistic, intercepting 17 passes. What’s changed? Prior to 2022, splash plays were the norm vs. their last line of defense. That changed, big time in 2022, as opposing QB’s completed 350 passes for a measly 3,548 yards.
Special teams: Kicking was acceptable. The return game was average offensively, but the kick return defense was below par.
Coaching: Raise your hand if you thought Nick Sirianni would rise to the top of the coaching hierarchy in just year #2. The entire coaching staff deserves credit for a job well done.
Front Office: This is EASY. Howie Roseman is the #1 GM in the NFL. He routinely steals players from other teams on draft day, blindsiding others by trading just above another team to get a coveted player. His drafts are typically above average. More importantly, he doesn’t stop with the draft. Case in point: They added pass rusher Reddick in free agency, signed CB Bradberry away from the NYG after the draft to solidify their secondary, and midseason, added Suh to the DL to be a rotational force in the middle. Roseman also rebuilt the WR unit (Smith, Brown) through the draft and through draft day trades, and got QB Hurts in round two. This is a deep and well put together team.
FIRST LOOK AT KANSAS CITY:
When Tyreek Hill was traded prior to the season there were many people who felt that KC might lose control of what was expected to be a very contentious AFC West race. Instead, back-to-back solid drafts made KC a more complete team, and Pat Mahomes and Andy Reid did the rest. KC adapted without the dynamic Hill, content to take what the defense gave them as they marched down the field. KC has been at the top of the AFC food chain for quite some time now, and forward thinking will likely have them remain at or near the top despite the plethora of good to great QB’s which now reside in the AFC.
KC, like Philly, enters the Super Bowl as a #1 seed. Also like Philly, KC benefitted by a schedule which featured opponents that were supposed to be tougher than what turned out to be the case. Within their own Division both Denver and Las Vegas turned out to be flawed. Tampa and Arizona also disappointed. KC continued an interesting habit of doing enough to win close games while unable to win by margin, leading to a far below average record vs. the spread. Coaching has masked some of KC’s on-field issues but there’s more than enough talent on this roster to validate their being the AFC’s representative. So, let’s take a look at KC, unit by unit.
Pass Attack: No one sees the field like Mahomes. His ability to make quick reads and deliver throws from all angles makes him impossible to defend when 100% healthy. Only when the Cincinnati game was on the line did Mahomes use his legs with the intent to run. He’ll have two weeks to mend before facing Philly, but the bigger issue is the health of his WR’s. Three of them missed part or all of the AFC title game. But do not underestimate this pass attack. KC revamped the entire offensive line at the beginning of 2021. Drafting very wisely, this OL has now become a top five unit. They’ll be tasked with protecting Mahomes from the NFL’s top pass rush. This matchup will be discussed in further detail next week. Oh, one more thing. TE Kelce plays for KC, and no one has been able to stop him all season long.
Run Attack: Led by rookie Pacheco, KC hasn’t forgotten about the run game. Like with Philly’s Sanders, he’s not been overused, and his fresh legs could be an asset as KC strives to keep Philly’s pass rush from teeing off. I generally prefer teams have RB’s who can do more than just run the ball. Pacheco caught five passes last week, but most of the time RB McKinnon has been the pass-catching target out of the backfield. He has been lightly used in the pass game during the playoffs, but that could change for this game. It will be interesting to see what KC’s RB rotation will look like for this game, and it is something I hope to address next week.
Pass Rush: KC far exceeded my expectations in this area, and this will be another key matchup that could decide who wins the Super Bowl. We rightfully talk about Philly’s record-setting sack season, but do not sleep on KC’s pass rush. One thing I discussed during the SF-Philly game last week was how prepared SF was in keeping Hurts inside the pocket. That was the case for nearly three quarters until finally the SF defense had to take some chances to make up for their complete lack of offense (no pass game due to QB injuries). I’m not sure KC is equipped to hold Hurts down quite as well, but the speed of KC’s pass rushers could be something that does work.
Run Defense: KC has an average rush defense, but it is a bit better than the 2021 version. KC did not face too many running QB’s but did hold Arizona’s Murray and Buffalo’s Josh Allen below their seasonal averages.
Pass Defense: KC’s pass defense has slowly regressed over the past three seasons, partly due to personnel losses. This is not a shutdown defense, and KC will have to pay close attention to Philly’s wideouts, along with TE Goedert. This seems similar to last week, with Cincy have WR’s Chase and Higgins as their top targets. KC did not intercept many passes in 2022, so their task is to play assignment-sound, preventing the big play. Hurts is not an elite deep ball thrower, but if given time, he has the personnel to make KC pay. This is yet another interesting chess match that will have me carefully looking to see who might have the advantage, the Philly offense or the KC defense.
Special teams: PK Butker had one of his worst regular seasons, but he missed four games with injury, and as his playoff performance has shown, he now appears to be back at 100%. Like Philly, kick return coverage has not been good.
Coaching: Andy Reid has adapted with the times. He recognized the need for speed before others did, and was ahead of the game, realizing that with rules favoring offenses, it was time to discard the old offense, run by the capable, but more methodical Alex Smith, and move to a more dynamic approach. Many people claim that offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy does not really call the offense, but I believe he deserves plenty of credit nevertheless, as Reed has many other team roles, and has to delegate responsibility to him more than people think.
Front Office: Drafting does matter. KC went through a dry spell (after some solid years) not that long ago but has rebounded to stock the roster with talent all over the field, and not just from the early rounds.
BONUS SECTION: Here are two propositions worth considering.
- I like Hurts to carry the ball OVER 9.5 times. You can get OVER 10.5 at plus money, but I paid -120 to go over 9.5. Hurts typically rushes 10+ times per game and ran nine times last week against a better defense in basically just half the game. If this game’s close, his number will be called much more, using designed runs.
- I think Pat Mahomes WILL throw an interception (prices I see right now range from -110 to -126, shop around). Mahomes threw 648 passes in the regular season, with 12 interceptions. He’s not afraid to take chances, and he’ll be facing a very stiff challenge with Philly’s pass rush.
NEXT WEEK: I’ll take a look at the key matchups for the Super Bowl, and look at additional player propositions for the game.
Visit me on twitter @ronacesports where I provide thoughts about all things football, and offer up additional handicapping analysis in podcast form as well.
All of my podcasts and guest appearances talking NFL and College football can be found on my YouTube page
SPECIAL NOTE: I am now in the midst of doing exit reports on all 32 NFL teams. These videos are about 15-20 minutes in length when I do them solo, and a bit longer when I have a special guest join me in recapping a team. You can find my exit report series here.
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