By Ron Marmalefsky (@ronacesports)
OPENING STATEMENT: Who saw this matchup in September? TCU won many a close game, and their offensive performance soared in 2022. Georgia handled the role of defending NCAA champion quite well most of the season. We finally had some close, exciting semifinal games, and it’s clear that both Michigan as well as Ohio St could have easily been victorious. But here we are, so let’s do this, one final time for 2022-23.
TCU vs. Michigan Quick Takeaways: Two interceptions returned for TD’s fueled TCU last week, but make no mistake, they continued to make plays offensively every time Michigan tested their mettle. Max Duggan went just 14-29, with two TD’s and two picks. He also ran quite well, with 57 yards and two rush TD’s. TCU ran wild on Michigan (adjusted 40-264), despite their lead RB leaving the game with an injury. The backup was just fine during the season, so this might just be the slightest of downgrades. More importantly, lead WR Q Johnson was 6-163 and is the focal point for stretching opposing defenses. Despite the score, I felt TCU played pretty much to its seasonal defensive numbers.
Georgia vs. Ohio St Quick Takeaways: I didn’t watch the game live (dinner and a movie, our standard New Year’s Eve tradition), but went through the game afterward. Ohio St has some defensive shortcomings when matched up vs. the likes of Georgia, but I came away thinking the better team lost. It’s pretty much consensus that if Marvin Harrison Jr did not get hurt, this would be a different conversation. We saw Georgia lose in the SEC title game a year ago and rebound, so this close call could serve as a wake-up, but on this particular day they got a bit lucky. Statistically, QB Bennett continues to impress. He is a bit prone to interceptions on the big stage (at times), but throwing for 398 yards shows he’s up to the task when it matters. As expected, the run game is varied, and any of three guys could have the hot hand. TE Bowers was 4-64, actually below my expectations (although the 64 yards was a prop winner). Defensively, I projected them to allow 22-36. They allowed 23-34, so that’s close to my expectations. Given Ohio St’s 5.75 per carry run attack, the adjusted stat line of 32-119 shows me once again that it’s very difficult to run on the Bulldogs. Georgia’s PK was 23-26 prior to last week, but just 2-4 in this game.
Additional TCU notes: I project TCU to have a difficult time running in this one. Only twice were they slowed down in 2022, going 26-117 at Baylor and 37-147 vs. Iowa St. Georgia’s worst defensive performances vs. the run were 31-140 a long time ago in the opener vs. Oregon, and 21-113 in the close call at Missouri. If TCU is held to 130 rushing yards or fewer, Max Duggan becomes the absolute key to a successful offensive performance. His running will be important, and the OL in pass protection will be even more critical. I think we’re looking at around 21-35 through the air, which is consistent with what I wrote about in their Michigan preview, when I noted he was 94-155 in games vs. comparable defenses (to Michigan). A big play against Georgia may be essential, as moving the chains consistently won’t be easy. I’ve seen Georgia give up some splash plays, and WR Jefferson has to deliver in much the same way as Marvin Harrison did prior to his injury.
Additional Georgia notes: Georgia doesn’t give up many points, but they allowed 30 to LSU before allowing another 41 to Ohio St. There’s no reason to believe TCU can’t put up points as well, as long as QB Duggan does not repeat his two-interception performance of a week ago. Defensively, I believe this is all about how Georgia defends the pass. My play on Ohio St last week was predicated on them achieving passing success (see that write-up), because of the Bulldog’s stout run D. Georgia had a modest 26 sacks coming into the playoffs, and that number is a bit low for this type of team. Duggan does NOT grade out as stout as Ohio St QB Stroud, but he could be considered on par with LSU’s QB (different styles, however). Offensively, I wonder if Georgia will pay more attention to their own run game. Remember, TCU allowed a combined 118-626 rushing in the three games prior to Michigan. I believe Georgia is fully capable of rushing for 200+ yards in this spot, which would not allow QB Duggan to get in rhythm in the outdoor environment. I’m guessing for now it will be RB by committee, but TCU must find a way to keep Georgia from making this game played by Bulldog rules. QB Bennett is a very high % passer, clearly as a result of how well Georgia is able to run the football. I think the passing game will be a fascinating watch, and here are my thoughts. 1st, Bennett is typically not a factor in the run game. TCU’s mission absolutely has to be to pressure him, either into sacks or errant throws. 2nd, TE Bowers will be a high NFL draft pick. Michigan TE’s had success vs. TCU. Containing Bowers is a must. Finally, RB McIntosh is dangerous in the pass game. TCU has three types of targets to defend, RB, TE and WR, and in the case of Georgia, this is a Bulldog advantage. Overall, although TCU’s Sonny Dykes is the coach with the great offensive resume, maybe Georgia’s varied modes of creating offensive success makes them more difficult to defend.
Keys to the game: TCU needs their OL, and specifically, their QB to play one of the best games of his life. WR Jefferson must deliver at least one splash play. The defense has to ramp up pressure on QB Bennett, even if that carries consequences. They must play better defense vs. TE Bowers than they did vs. Michigan’s TE’s. Georgia needs to trust that their run game can dominate, the same way it has whenever called upon with their 5.75 per carry average. Making TCU earn their yards (no splash plays) would in my opinion limit TCU’s overall effectiveness. Back to the offense. Creative runs and schemes can keep TCU off balance. Finally, nothing gives an underdog more hope than an early miscue, such as a failed field goal. Making that 1st kick would be helpful in order for Georgia’s PK to forget about what happened vs. Ohio St.
The decision: My Power Numbers have this Georgia-12.5. My rush numbers have this at 13. My point stat indicators have this at 11.5. I’ve had four bowl game losses in two seasons (straight-up), and I can’t begin to tell you how crazy that is. Yes, I found edges in many a game, but the other edges seemed smaller, and/or carried more variance due to players, coaches, and matchups changing daily. It’s the title game, but forty years of doing this has me well grounded in NEVER forcing a play. I will find a few matchup edges (hopefully) and make this game all about player props, using my simulation game data for guidance.
Ron’s Prop Play Idea: Bowers over 64.5 receiving yards
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