By Ron Marmalefsky (@ronacesports)
In this week’s weekly digest, I break down the Big 12 matchup between Texas Tech and Kansas State
OPENING STATEMENT: Going into this weekend, most NCAA teams will have played four games. I now use 2022 stats only, no longer looking back to 2021 numbers. I compare my 2022 team projections to see if they have met, exceeded, or fallen short of what my expectations were. From there, I handicap each game. Both Texas Tech and Kansas State enter this game at 3-1, and 1-0 in conference play. Both teams come off upset wins in the Big 12. Let’s take a closer look at this matchup.
TEXAS TECH PRESEASON PROGNOSIS: Texas Tech (TT) has a new staff, and entered the season projected (by me) to be more pass centric. With two solid RB’s I kept their run offense (yards-per-carry) high. With a decent returning defensive front, I kept their rush defense projection flat (at 4.3 allowed per carry, corrected for sacks using my formula). With an average back seven, I projected a pass D% that was still below average, but a bit improved. With new staffs, the actual results can vary, so I was curious to see what would happen. TT used the transfer portal to restock their OL. The incoming group had plenty of NCAA starts but I made sure to check (after four games) how the new OL was coming together. They also had a new kicker, with the previous guy going 15-16. I projected a ceiling of six wins for this team.
KANSAS STATE PRESEASON PROGNOSIS: K St has been ultra-consistent in how it goes about its business, even after losing elite Head Coach Bill Snyder. Former Nebraska QB Martinez entered a system that seemed tailored to his strengths. I loved the fit, but my estimation was that Martinez never progressed as a passer, and that he would remain inconsistent in that regard. Like TT, the K St pass D% was too high in 2021, and although improvement was possible, I still felt it would be vulnerable. The pacing of their schedule worried me, but that was more of an issue later in the season. My 2022 keys for this team were QB turnovers and seeing if they would play at a faster pace in 2022 (listed last in pace of play in 2021).
TEXAS TECH 2022 PERFORMANCE: Is TT’s 3-1 record misleading? They won a tossup overtime game hosting Houston thanks to a lucky 4th down pass play, and last week won a thriller vs. Texas (also in overtime) in a game where Texas was the projected winner late, but failed to close the door. TT had a +2 turnover ratio in the game. How do the early stats look? TT has not run to expectations, but has done a nice job of stopping the run, albeit vs. teams not projected to run all that effectively. This game will be their toughest test. The pass D% is slightly better than what I would have anticipated thus far. Their kicker is just 4-7, but hasn’t cost them any games. Their system is more of the short pass variety but it is working. QB interceptions are too high. I think the new staff has done a credible job thus far, and winning close games builds team confidence.
KANSAS STATE 2022 PERFORMANCE: Thus far, Martinez has overachieved, but he’s also been intentionally kept out of danger by the game plan that’s been in place. His % is high, but the yards-per-completion is markedly lower than expected. His ability to take off and run the ball remains an asset. They’ve run slightly above expectations, but the run defense has lagged a bit behind. The pass D% looks good, but only Oklahoma (26-39) has been a true test for their secondary. TT will likely be fine in this game. Martinez, by the way, has not thrown an interception. RB Vaughn will test the TT run defense, and is projected to exceed 130 yards in this contest.
KEYS TO THE GAME: For TT, they need to have a bit more run success in order to fully utilize their pass attack. If not, their QB could continue to be turnover prone. They must also rise to the challenge in stopping K St’s run attack. For K St, establishing the run could enable them to hit a big pass play should Tech have to devote more bodies up front. Can Martinez stay turnover free? K St is +6 in turnover margin. If turnovers are flat, does that give Tech an edge?
FINAL THOUGHTS AND PROJECTED OUTCOME: Last year K St won 25-24, leading to the firing of TT Head Coach Wells. K St has won often hosting Tech. The line opened -7 and is currently at -8. There’s a path for K St to take care of business here based on historical data. K St is the rush pick, and have been 52-26 vs. the spread when placed in that role. New coaches who are NOT rush picks are 227-270 vs. the spread the past eight seasons, and now 628-805 vs. the spread since I’ve been collecting this data. Winning breeds confidence, a plus for TT, but counting special team play (usually a K St staple), my projection would be a win in the range of 34-24. My official play would be K St at -7, with a strong lean with K St up to -9. The interesting side variable is how both teams respond after pulling emotional upsets a week ago. If Martinez continues to play turnover free, I think K St is too dangerous in this spot.
Visit me on twitter @ronacesports where I provide thoughts about all things football, and offer up additional handicapping analysis in podcast form as well.
