By Ron Marmalefsky (@ronacesports)
OPENING STATEMENT: In this week’s weekly digest, I break down the critical matchup between undefeated UCLA and Oregon as they battle for first place in the PAC 12.
UCLA Preseason Prognosis: With a soft early schedule, I expected UCLA to come roaring out of the gate. With experience at QB and RB, Chip Kelly finally had the offense where he wanted it to be. My preseason rush #’s (corrected for sacks using my formula) had them gaining a very high 5.8 yards-per-carry and scoring 30+ points per game. I was pretty flat with their defensive projections, and had them about on par with 2021 figures. This defense did not return a ton of starters, but the schedule was manageable. High scoring games were expected.
Oregon Preseason Prognosis: There’s always more of a guessing game when a new coach is hired, especially one from outside the PAC 12 coaching tree. Dan Lanning had a new QB (Bo Nix) from the transfer portal, and had to revamp the run game with the departure of their lead RB from 2021. I liked incoming RB Irving, who was productive at run oriented Minnesota. Having a senior-laden OL helps. The one area of concern was DB, which I rated a tad weaker (61% projection).
UCLA 2022 Performance: I knew going in that the nonconference schedule wasn’t going to help me learn too much, but scoring a total of 82 points hosting Washington and Utah confirmed my feelings that this offense was going to be special. The run defense has performed above expectations, but not by much. They stopped Colorado and Washington, but allowed Utah to go 43-192. Rushing data was on their side prior to both games and UCLA delivered wins and “covers”. QB Robinson has hit nearly 75%, with just two interceptions. Robinson is a legit threat in the run game as well.
Oregon 2022 Performance: Oregon opened 2022 by getting trounced vs. Georgia, Dan Lanning’s former employer. They rebounded to win comfortably vs. a good BYU team and then got a bit lucky to escape with a win at WSU. What’s been most impressive is their rush attack, which was at its “worst” vs. Georgia (31-140) and sits at an extremely stout, 6.55 yards-per-carry. RB Irving has been outstanding. Bo Nix has been far more consistent as a QB, and he has also exceeded 70%, with a nice 12-3 ratio. He’s a solid runner as well, going 40-331, with eight rushing TD’s. He’s been sacked just once in 2022. The Oregon run defense is fine, but will be unlikely to stop UCLA’s attack. The Oregon pass defense has underachieved, allowing about 67%. They have clearly faced a tougher slate of opponents as compared to UCLA, which must be factored into the equation.
KEYS TO THE GAME: Which defense will make a key stop or two? Both teams have exceptional run-pass balance. UCLA took care of business at Colorado. This is only their 2nd road game of the season. I have no other game keys. This really does come down to which defense can impact the game. Given the expected points for this game (70), both defenses will be tested.
Can UCLA overcome some general situations that are not in their favor? My handicapping strategy combines three important factors, Power Ratings (for guideline usage), metrics, such as rushing data and other matchup analysis, and situational factors, which can include, but is not limited to game placement, series history, team related situations and general NCAA situations. Some situations are “suspended” when a new coaching staff is in place, as is the case here. New staffs DO benefit from their initial bye week, so Oregon’s staff can get the most out of the extra week of preparation. The rushing data supports Oregon. When UCLA is not supported by rush data, they have gone 14-22 ATS. Given the strength of schedule edge, the situation usually gets a 3% bump up. Turf has not been UCLA’s preferred surface. While just a minor indicator, and certainly NOT something to blindly hang one’s hat on, UCLA is (ironically) 14-22 ATS in their 1st turf game of the season.
FINAL THOUGHTS AND PROJECTED OUTCOME: Last year UCLA lost a tight one vs. Oregon’s former staff, 34-31, played in Los Angeles. In 2020 UCLA came to Eugene and lost 38-35, covering the +17 spread. With their experience, coupled with a solid 6-0 start, UCLA is full of confidence. Can they overcome the situations listed above? Offensively, yes, but if they can’t continue to win the turnover battle then I think Oregon will be tough to stop, and UCLA will need a near perfect offensive game to get the outright win. I show this as a 40-31 win for the Ducks, but we do have to consider weather issues for this game. It’s been beautiful in Oregon for quite some time, but beginning Friday, the national weather forecast shows rain every day the rest of October. While some may say that favors the home team, it does increase the likelihood of turnovers and busted coverage for both teams, and we know both QB’s can break off a big run. Weather permitting, this will be a fun game to watch.
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