Game Preview: Utah at Oregon
By Ron Marmalefsky (@ronacesports)
OPENING STATEMENT: In this week’s weekly digest, I feature a PAC 12 battle between Utah and Oregon. Yes, both teams are presumably out of the NCAA playoff picture, but there is still much to play for. As a side note, Utah and Oregon have my two highest PAC 12 Power Rating numbers, ahead of USC.
Utah’s Performance to Date: Utah has two losses. The first one came in heartbreak fashion, 29-26 to at Florida. The conference loss was at UCLA, 42-32. Their top two wins are hosting OSU, a 42-16 decisive victory, and hosting USC, where they boldly won the close game on a two-point conversion. With RB Thomas back on track from some “personal” issues, the run game has lived up to my expectations, standing at 5.3 per carry and 213 yards per game (adjusted as usual for sacks and kneel downs using my formula). Their QB has been accurate and productive, giving them excellent run-pass balance. He will occasionally use his legs to add value to the offense, with a three-game stretch vs. OSU, UCLA and USC confirming that fact as he ran a combined 31-192 in those games. At the beginning of 2022 I rated Utah as having the best set of TE’s in the NCAA. Unfortunately, Kuithe was lost after four games with a season ending injury, and Kincaid also missed time with injury. He’s back and leads the team with 50 receptions. Like clockwork, Utah’s run D has been easy to project over the past 15 seasons. This season has been different. They currently stand at allowing 4.55 per carry, the highest figure I have for them during that time span (I projected 3.9). Facing Oregon’s run attack won’t be easy. The pass D% is exactly on projections. Oregon has a balanced attack, and that has hurt the Utes in 2022. Kicking has been acceptable, which is below past Utah standards.
Oregon’s 2022 Performance: Despite rushing for 316 yards, Oregon’s NCAA playoff hopes were dashed with a 37-34 loss to Washington. I projected a 61% pass D% for the new staff, but they’ve allowed over 66%, and were gashed last week to the tune of 26-35, for 408 yards. The run D is at 4.3 per carry, but with Utah and then OSU on tap, that figure may falter. No team has run wild on the Ducks, but some haven’t had to, thanks to their pass defense woes. What IS working is the offense. Oregon had scored 41 or more points in ALL games after the opening loss in the state of Georgia until last week’s 34-point effort. Bo Nix has been efficient, and generally has become a better decision-maker at QB, but there’s still room for more growth. He’s had only two outings below last week’s 67% accuracy, and has run for 514 yards and a whopping 14 TD’s. Running QB’s have hurt Utah this season so that is an advantage. It’s a weird stat, but Oregon’s top two RB’s have just a combined six rushing TD’s, this despite a combined stat line of 222-1,455, or over 6.5 yards per carry! Therefore, both teams have run-pass balance. Oregon’s kicking has been surprisingly good (10-11). The return game defense has been substandard.
KEYS TO THE GAME: Which team will make more defensive stops? Offensively, Utah needs a WR to step up to take advantage of Oregon’s suspect pass coverage. Creating a moving pocket for their agile QB might help. Defensively, Utah has to play better vs. Oregon’s mobile QB. Both teams like to establish the run. Utah has to contain Nix as otherwise Oregon may have their way in the run game. I favor Oregon’s PK (slightly), but the return defense has to play better.
FINAL THOUGHTS AND PROJECTED OUTCOME: Oregon has run 6.15 per carry this season, while Utah has had unusual issues stopping the run. Oregon is 3-1 vs. the spread when installed as a rush stat pick, although I know this is a new staff and a small sample size. Utah has not been a rush pick twice this year, and failed to cover in both games. Oregon spoiled Utah’s certain playoff bid in 2019 with a convincing underdog win. Utah dominated Oregon twice last season. It’s a late-night game, so East Coast viewers will be up past midnight if they want to watch this one. The weather report has this game free from rain or snow, but with projected temperatures in the low 30’s. I show Oregon and Bo Nix as the better team in this spot and think they can cover as long as they play better pass defense and play evenly on special teams. The lack of true WR talent on Utah might be one reason why Oregon can at least slow down the pass attack, while Utah’s defense has plenty to worry about.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: The above writeup was written as if QB Bo Nix is ready to go. Arkansas was able to cover vs. LSU (last week’s writeup) without starting QB K.J. Jefferson, as that matchup was still solid. If Nix is out, that might complicate matters in this spot, so check his status prior to kickoff. If Nix is out, that doesn’t flip me to Utah, but does take me away from fully endorsing Utah, because Oregon still has two more than capable RB’s to move the chains. What it does, however, is eliminate the threat of Nix as a red zone threat. In addition, Oregon can’t afford to get behind the chains, as the Utah defense will have the advantage in obvious passing downs. I will be curious to see how far the line moves prior to game time. Will it move too much? Will Nix try to play? Stay tuned.
NEXT WEEK: Happy Thanksgiving: Thursday we all feast on Turkey and football, but unless you are a big-time shopper on Friday, football and leftovers will be on the menu for Friday. I show seven interesting games on next Friday’s slate. Next week’s column will provide a preview of all seven games.
Visit me on twitter @ronacesports where I provide thoughts about all things football, and offer up additional handicapping analysis in podcast form as well.
