By Ron Marmalefsky
Ron Ace Sports takes an in-depth look at the college picture going into week two.
This week’s edition comes in two parts. Part One looks back on the 1st full week of college action, with bullet points covering reflections, takeaways and lessons learned. Part two will focus on six games on a much less glamorous weekend of action.
PART ONE: Reflecting back on last Saturday’s games
- Ohio St–Notre Dame: It looks like new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has made an early impact on Ohio St’s defense. Notre Dame couldn’t run the ball and only completed ten passes. I was surprised that the Buckeyes only scored 24 points, but keep in mind the Irish coaching staff has a defensive slant. In the end, Ohio St ran for a hefty yards-per-carry average, and completed over 70% of their passes. No need to worry.
- Utah-Florida: As noted last week, this game was decided by the play of Florida QB Richardson, who faced a slightly weaker Utah defense. The crowd was electric. Utah gave up the lead late, and once again the PAC 12 is behind the playoff eight-ball. Florida is still a work in progress. Their defense was exposed and will need time to jell.
- Cincinnati-Arkansas: I was all in on Arkansas yet came away impressed with Cincy. Only poor kicking (noted in last week’s write-up) prevented Cincy from covering the spread. I came away thinking Cincy can overcome the loss of nine players drafted and remain at or near the top of their conference.
- Oregon-Georgia: Just wow! The talent on that Georgia team is amazing. I initially had them behind Alabama and Ohio St, but in the playoff mix as the 3rd best team. It’s only one game, but maybe the race at the top goes three deep.
QUICK HITTERS:
- Illinois was the better team vs. Indiana. That’s a nice comeback win for Indiana, but they’ve got work to do.
- This just in: Temple is bad. Duke shut them out, and that’s saying something.
- Each year I publish a bottom five coaches list. Colorado and Texas St coaches made the list. Colorado looked inept offensively and made no 2nd half adjustments. Texas St is well on its way to a new staff for 2023.
- Speaking of Texas St, it was a deserved blowout, but keep in mind that Nevada is +9 in turnover margin in just two games. That will regress during the season.
- Iowa and North Carolina results couldn’t have been any more different. The Iowa game produced 288 total yards and no TD’s. The Tar Heel game ended 63-61, with 62 fourth quarter points and three TD’s at the end of the game. But to be honest, both Iowa and North Carolina played the same as they always do.
- Did NC St save their season? Had East Carolina made the short field goal, the Wolfpack mindset would have been far different. Expectations are high. Maybe they take a deep breath and relax.
- Hats off to James Madison and to Arizona. James Madison stepped up in class and made a big statement. Arizona showed no offense in 2021, but plenty of offense in game #1, on the road vs. a usually stout San Diego St defense.
- One disappointment. Where did Louisville’s offense go? They’re much too experienced to score just seven points.
FINALLY: Read the box scores. Here’s a case in point. If you read the box score as written, it looks like Virginia Tech had trouble running the football. The numbers say they ran 39-147 vs. Old Dominion, or about 3.8 per carry. Instead, a bad snap on a punt was recorded as a 54-yard loss on their stat sheet. Take that out and Virginia Tech ran 38-201, or 5.3 per carry. Keep that in mind for both Virginia Tech’s offense and Old Dominion’s defense.
PART TWO: An early look at seven games on this weekend’s schedule
Alabama at Texas: Alabama served notice last week that they mean business. Texas did the same, but vs. an easier opponent. This game will begin to tell us if year #2 for the new Texas staff will be one where they get back into top 25 discussions.
What happened last week: I like the promising start for the Alabama run game. 2021 was a rare down year for them. What’s just as impressive is their defense vs. a decent Utah St offense. Nothing worked for the Aggies. Highly touted QB Ewers made his Texas debut a good one. I expected and received nice run-pass balance. ULM has shown occasional offensive life. Considering how poorly Texas looked defensively in 2021, the #’s they recorded last week were a step in the right direction.
What I’m expecting: A focused Alabama team, and a subpar QB effort out of the raw Ewers. Alabama looks like they’re on a mission, and even if Texas is improved in 2022, this test looks massive. Two players bear watching. RB Gibbs (Alabama) came over from Georgia Tech. He ran 9-93 last week. He’s the real deal. WR Worthy (Texas) impressed as a freshman in 2021. I’m interested to see how he fares vs. this level of defense.
Tennessee at Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh had Kenny Pickett a year ago and they won at Tennessee and their new staff, 41-34. The rematch is in Pittsburgh and this time the visiting Vols are the favorite.
What happened last week: Ball St’s defense was overmatched, and that was expected. The Tennessee offense is one of the best in the nation, with a dual threat QB, two solid RB’s and a variety of pass catching options. Pittsburgh and West Virginia put on a show last week (at Pittsburgh). QB Slovis did not throw an interception, but as expected, the run game got off to a slow start vs. the solid front of West Virginia. I was surprised to see Pitt’s OL have trouble in pass protection. I was also surprised that Pitt’s run defense let them down.
What I’m expecting: Tennessee’s QB to have another solid game, but I do feel that Pittsburgh’s front four will rebound and make things interesting. I also expect a better performance out of the Pitt run game. I understand the love for Tennessee at the betting windows, but I think the line is a tad high. Pittsburgh has been 30-21 ATS as a home dog, and I don’t see Tennessee’s defense as being of the shutdown variety. Rodney Hammond was the better runner for Pitt last week, but I’m curious if a move to Israel Abanikanda might be the better move in this spot to put power to Tennessee’s speed. I’m expecting pass receptions for Tennessee to remain spread out amongst several options.
Kentucky at Florida: Georgia may be the lead dog in the SEC East, but these two teams would like to think they belong at the next level after that. Florida has won 39 of the last 42 meetings, but the teams split the last four, and Kentucky won 20-13 last year. This promises to be interesting.
What happened last week: Kentucky’s three-headed RB monster sits at just one, with their lead RB suspended and their touted transfer RB out with a torn ACL from last week. QB Levis looked solid week one as he attempts to build his NFL resume. The pass defense was expected to be a bit vulnerable and that looks to be the case. Florida QB Richardson had a monster day vs. Utah, and he needed every single one of his big plays to beat a good Utah team. Running 39-284 was more than impressive. The Florida defense is a work in progress. Kentucky may not be that far removed from what Utah brought to the table so this will be another good test.
What I’m expecting: I give the Florida crowd credit for “assisting” the Gators in a tough come from behind effort, and that same crowd will need to be loud again, as there could be a partial letdown for a team and a new coach who were all in for sixty minutes of action. I don’t see much of a difference in the two teams other than at RB. I’ll lean with Kentucky to keep it closer than the five-point spread. I expect some decent offensive outputs from both teams on the stat sheet. Will QB Richardson for Florida make the difference again, or can Levis elevate his professional resume in this important SEC game.
USC at Stanford: One reason why USC has a new coach is that Stanford beat them 42-28 a year ago, AT USC. The Trojans want to make noise on a national level, while Stanford just wants to get to six wins and become bowl eligible. Remember, there are no Divisions this year in the PAC 12. This game counts, and USC wants to get a leg up on the rest of the contenders.
What happened last week: USC scored 66 points, but an amazing three pick-sixes helped. They ran 28-208 and their top QB passed 19-22 (also running 6-68). Transfer WR Jordan Addison did not disappoint. The pass defense was a tad more impressive than the run defense, but facing Rice wasn’t going to give me much useful defensive information. Stanford dropped way down in class (at least from a football point of view), defeating Colgate 41-10. Emmitt Smith’s son ran 11-118, with two TD runs. I have no takeaways from this game either.
What I’m expecting: Lots of points? USC’s offense is ahead of their defense thanks to all the impact transfers. Nine transfers start for USC, including five at offensive skill positions. Stanford has NOT put up any resistance vs. the run for a number of years, and pass defense figures are modest at best. The series has produced close games, and Stanford has been the better team vs. the spread. USC may just be too good an offense, but I like Stanford’s chances to score as well, and could see a game where USC is challenged. As a side note, USC elevated its run attack by swiping Oregon RB Travis Dye, and Stanford RB Austin Jones. Jones now faces his former team. Dual threat QB Williams could have a big day vs. Stanford defense. Stanford’s QB McKie has the talent to make this interesting. It will be interesting to see if he has his way vs. a young USC secondary.
Baylor at BYU: It was just Albany, but Baylor doesn’t look like a team that lost a ton of talent from their 2021 squad. Baylor hosted and beat BYU 38-24 last year. BYU is one of the most experienced teams in the nation and wants to make amends, this time at home.
What happened last week: It’s hard to read anything into Baylor’s win over Albany, a team that went 2-9 in 2021. I’ll just say this. Baylor made a business decision after 2021 to anoint Blake Shapen as the QB ahead of someone more experienced (who since transferred). Shapen went 17-20 last week, looking sharp. I’m not surprised BYU beat USF, but the way they did it was mighty impressive. USF returned a ton of starters but still gave up 313 rush yards, with BYU’s QB Hall going 25-32. Maybe the Cougars should be getting a tad more credit?
What I’m expecting: An interesting game. Last year the Baylor win was predictable as two key coaches were poached from BYU and Baylor used them to their advantage. That’s still a (now slight) advantage, but the tables have turned in terms of which team is more experienced. The line is -3.5. I made the line 5, but knew Baylor would be a bit more embraced at the start of the week. Baylor’s Dave Aranda is already one of the better NCAA coaches. On paper, BYU has the better team but I’m not willing to get involved. BYU could be set for a monster year, while a Baylor outright upset here would be very impressive.
Mississippi State at Arizona: I didn’t expect to have this as one of the games to be worthy of a write-up, but both teams earned this mention. Both teams won and covered a week ago. I’ll explain below why I feel Miss St looks different this year. I doubt that I need to explain much as to why Arizona looks different.
What happened last week: QB Rodgers and Miss St trounced Memphis 49-23. What I liked is that the yards-per-reception was stronger than the past two seasons, with 38 completed passes for 450 yards. Let’s see if Miss St can elevate the number of downfield throws on a weekly basis. Arizona’s offense looked night and day better in year #2 for Head Coach Jedd Fisch. Transfer QB Jayden de Laura impressed, throwing for 299 yards and four TD’s. All #’s looked good considering SD St typically fields a very good defense. It’s just one game, but it certainly caught my attention, as well as I’m sure some other folks.
What I’m expecting: A stern test for Arizona’s run game and Arizona’s pass defense. SD St isn’t known for effective QB play, so this late-night game will see them have to defend a far more sophisticated pass attack. I think the onus will be on QB de Laura to produce as I can’t see the Wildcats consistently moving the ball on the ground vs. what’s supposed to be a very good Miss St front four. I’ve seen Miss St disappoint in the past as double-digit favorites, but they’re 1-0 so far in 2022.
Free sports picks are at the Hunter Sports Picks site daily. My premium selections are available here. 53-27 last year in college football. 9-2 last 11 plays.
Visit Ron on twitter @ronacesports where I provide thoughts about all things football, and offer up additional handicapping analysis in podcast form as well.
